It's Not Just a Race, Stupid

Just how big a deal is the Kentucky Derby? We thoroughbred bloggers obviously are in no position to be dispassionate about the topic in its larger cultural context. We’re emotionally invested. So, last night I went to the new Google Blog search and typed in “Kentucky Derby”, curious to see what would come up. Surprisingly (or maybe not) not a single blog dedicated to horse racing “hit”—just goes to show you how minuscule our piece of the blogosphere pie is!

What are “real” people blogging about in connection to the Derby? Here are some of the finer posts I ran across:

The Art of Manliness, “Dressing for the Kentucky Derby”
Inspired by the Golden Era of American Style—the 1930s and 1940s—this post is resplendent in photos and helpful hints for the well-dressed man. Concluding thoughts: “Dress well when you attend the Kentucky Derby, for a true gentleman understands the history of the event and realizes it’s one of the few remaining bastions of genteelness in America. Add to the enjoyment of those around you by dressing in the mood of the festivities; like a uniform, it’ll help you better feel the ambiance and create lasting memories.” Brilliant!

WorthPoint, “Off to the Races with Kentucky Derby Collectibles”
Nicely illustrated post about collecting Derby memorabilia, from posters and pins, to glasses and signed programs.

Peggy’s Home Cooking Blog, “Kentucky Derby Mint Julep Cake Recipe”
A pound cake drenched in bourbon with mint-flavored white chocolate ganache. Yum!

Chica and Jo, “Betting Pool Spreadsheet for the Kentucky Derby”
Nice colorful spreadsheet in Excel format you can download and printout for your Derby party.

Hostess with the Mostess, “Kentucky Derby Party: Run for the Roses Centerpiece Ideas”
Pretty darn cute ideas using red roses—obviously.


Okay, so they aren’t really talking about the race itself, but more so the cultural event. Still, I can deal with the Kentucky Derby being #3 on the list of “Top 10 Traditional American Sporting Events,” just behind the Army-Navy game and the World Series, and ahead of the Penn Relays, The Masters Tournament, Indianapolis 500, Boston Marathon, U.S. Open Tennis Championships, Rose Bowl and Little League World Series. Good company, indeed.

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Pick for Churchill, Race 4

I love baby races, although it seems awful early for them. Barring a sloppy track, here's how I see race 4 at Churchill today:

Churchill Race 4 (4.5f MSW, 2yo)
The only filly in a field of eight, Sparkle of Light catches my eye, particularly with a strong set of gate workouts. Wesley Ward is a master of 2-year-olds, winning 30% with debut maidens, 58% ITM. Her dam Blushing Hope (Housebuster) has had 3 winners from 3 starters, and her sire Alke hits 21% with his first-time starters. What’s not to like? Additionally, Blushing Hope is a half-sister to recent G1 Blue Grass place-getter Massone.

For the exacta, how about Flatter Than Me? More sharp workouts from this son of Flatter out of the Boston Harbor mare Hannah’s Doll (a half-sister to the millionaire warrior Scott’s Scoundrel). He’s a half-brother to the Indian Charlie filly Auspicious who won her first 2-year-old effort, and recently finished third in the Prima Donna Stakes at Oaklawn.

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How Much Money Buys a Derby Winner?

As if you need yet another angle to analyze regarding this year’s Kentucky Derby contenders, here’s the low-down on which ones sold (or didn’t) at auction and which are racing as homebreds.

If you like the homebred angle, then Papa Clem, Chocolate Candy and Summer Bird are the horses for you. Also, at least a portion of ownership is still retained by the breeders of I Want Revenge and Friesan Fire when both sold privately. Join in the Dance was also privately purchased earlier this year.

Thirteen of the entries went through Keeneland’s September 2007 yearling sale, with two failing to meet the reserve. They are, from most to least expensive:

Dunkirk—$3.7m
Friesan Fire—$725k (RNA)
Flying Private—$700k
Desert Party—$425k
Hold Me Back—$400k
Pioneerof the Nile—$290k
Mr. Hot Stuff—$200k
Atomic Rain—$170k
Join in the Dance—$130k (RNA)
West Side Bernie—$50k
Win Willy—$25k
General Quarters—$25k
Musket Man—$15k

Three came out of Fasig-Tipton sales, including both Darley horses that were purchased out of the Calder Selected 2-year-olds sale: Regal Ransom ($675k) and Desert Party ($2.1m). Mine That Bird ($9.5k) was purchased out of the Kentucky Fall Yearlings sale in October 2007.

Only one, Advice ($170k) was sold through the Ocala 2008 February Selected 2-year-old sale.

So, what does this all mean? Probably not one damn thing, except we'll see after Saturday afternoon if money can buy victory.

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Jock Talk

After the regrettable scratch of Quality Road from Derby contention, jockey John Velazquez picked up the mount on Mr. Hot Stuff—how fortunate for his connections to have waited patiently, and be rewarded with a top jockey. It’s also quite telling, now with Join in the Dance moving into the number 20 slot, that Velazquez isn’t riding that one, or any of the Toddster’s horses. It wasn’t that long ago, was it, that Velazquez rode first-call for Pletcher? What’s happened to that relationship? Or is it truly more about the quality of Todd’s Derby horses this year (perhaps barring Dunkirk)? Personally, both Advice and Join in the Dance are tosses for me, although not because of the Toddster per se.

Speaking of trainer-jockey relationships, the trust Larry Jones has in young Gabriel Saez is quite extraordinary. On ESPN.com, Claire Novak has a nice article on Friesan Fire’s jockey where she quotes Jones as saying, “I don't have to give him a lot of advice. In fact, I'd just as soon that he not even read the Form or really know what kind of horse he has under him. I just like him to break from the gate and feel what he's riding against and ride his race and do what comes naturally to him, because that's what he does best.”

With his instincts, combined with the Derby experience he had last year, I just don’t see Saez making any rookie mistakes. Friesan Fire is—lock, stock and barrel—my Derby horse this year.

On the other hand, despite the way he handled adversity in the G1 Wood Memorial, even-younger Joe Talamo may be keenly tested on Saturday on I Want Revenge. I liked what Garrett Gomez wrote in his NTRA.com blog on Saturday:

“Someone asked me if I’d be giving advice to Joe Talamo, since he’s only 19 and he’ll be riding his first Derby. I don’t know if there’s a whole lot of advice you can give to somebody, especially when it’s their first experience with the Kentucky Derby. After he rides in it, he'll understand—it’s like no race he’s ever ridden in. It’s a very roughly-run race and you encounter things you wouldn’t encounter in normal racing; almost every man for himself. On top of it, you have 20 horses and everybody’s trying to find position, so it can be like a sort of stampede.”

Am I the only one who finds it extraordinary that Julien Leparoux will hop aboard General Quarters for the very first time next Saturday—no leg up for a workout or even a gallop in advance? Even if it is common practice for Leparoux to ride “lots” of horses that way, my god, this is THE Kentucky Derby, not just any other race. Is it really advantageous for Leparoux to not have any practical experience on the colt, to not have experienced any of his quirks, to know exactly how to push his buttons?

Great comments by Skronk and Amateurcapper in my last jockey post. Another perspective is always welcomed.

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Triple Crown Down Under

While our Triple Crown kicks off with Saturday’s G1 Kentucky Derby, the Australian Triple Crown wrapped up this past weekend with no winner.

Unlike the US version which features three-year-olds racing over the course of five weeks going 10f (Derby), 9.5f (Preakness), and 12f (Belmont), the Australians run two-year-olds 6f (Golden Slipper), 7f (AJC Sires Produce) and 1 mile (Champagne) over a three-week period. Most unusual for Americans, the Aussie Triple Crown races often feature colts, geldings and fillies run against one another.

Last year, the colt Sebring took the first two legs, only to be upset by the filly Samantha Miss in the Champagne. Unfortunately, both are now retired from racing—Sebring sold for A$28 million and stands at Widden Stud, while Samantha Miss set a record recently when she sold for A$3.85 million as a broodmare to Strawberry Hill Stud where plans are to breed her to Sebring’s sire More Than Ready.

The last Aussie Triple Crown winner was Gai Waterhouse’s gelding Dance Hero, in 2003; before that, it was the filly Burst in 1992 and the colt Tierce in 1991. (As a side note, Friesan Fire’s 2nd dam Bint Marscay won the Golden Slipper in 1993, as did her sire Marscay in 1982).

This year, a gelding Phelan Ready won the Golden Slipper, to which a prominent auctioneer ever-so-bluntly noted: “With Phelan Ready all he's worth is what he can win on a racetrack. These colts in the race…will be very valuable with a group 1 to their name, but with a gelding, if they break down they are worth nothing. I would say Phelan Ready's market value now would be somewhere between two to three million if someone was looking to take him to Asia to race.”

Third in the Golden Slipper, Manhattan Rain already had a regal bloodline, being a half-brother to champion sire Redoute’s Choice. Still, coming back to win the AJC Sires Produce added several zeros to his value. Going into the Champagne, he looked unbeatable...but we know there’s no such thing in racing. He finished third, as the winner Onemorenomore earned the first G1 victory for trainer Jason Coyle and Patinack Farm, the racing stable and stud farm founded in 2007 by Nathan Tinkler.

Tinkler has spent by most accounts nearly $200 million in the past year and a half to buy horses and farm land for his new enterprise, listed as part of the portfolio of Tinkler Group, a private investment company: “The company's growing portfolio consists of interests in mining and property development as well as thoroughbred racing and breeding.” Patinack broke abruptly with respected trainer Anthony Cummings last December, and now has its sizable stable in the hands of Jason Coyle, a previously little-known trainer who had apprenticed with trainers Gai Waterhouse and David Payne.

An $800k yearling purchase, Onemorenomore looks to be the first of many Patinack group winners, as Tinkler appears adapt at spending beaucoup bucks for quality horse flesh. Sort of reminds one of another investment/hedge fund firm, except for one thing—at least IEAH hasn’t adopted a female Olympic swimmer to be its brand ambassador.

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Oaks Blues

While Dana at Green But Game has her crush on the Oaks, I’m less than thrilled with this year’s edition. Honestly, the only question anyone should be asking about Friday’s Kentucky Oaks is—whether fast or sloppy track—by how much Rachel Alexandra will win.

Compared to the last two Oaks (including Rags to Riches, Octave, Dreaming of Anna, Tough Tiz’s Sis, Cotton Blossom, Sealy Hill, Mistical Plan and Dawn After Dawn in 2007; Proud Spell, Little Belle, Pure Clan, Golden Doc A, Bsharpsonata, Country Star, and A to the Croft in 2008), this year’s Oaks field looks amazingly weak beyond the top two—Rachel Alexandra and multiple G2 victress Justwhistledixie.

Nan looked on the upswing in the G1 Santa Anita Oaks, but disappointed in the G1 Ashland, and has had no success on dirt in two previous efforts, at Saratoga and Aqueduct. If the track is sloppy, Flying Spur might stand a chance at a piece of the exotics, as both of her best efforts were on such off-tracks, but she was no match for Rachel Alexandra in the G2 Fair Grounds Oaks. Gabby’s Golden Gal’s sole dirt effort was a 13-length victory in the Sunland Park Oaks, but this is a notch (or two) above what she’s run against thus far. Be Fair qualifies for a second-level allowance, while Tweeter comes in off a maiden victory at Keeneland. How many fillies here ran in the last year’s G1 BC Juvenile Fillies? None.

Stardom Bound is on the sidelines, as are War Echo, Fitz Just Right, Song of Solomon, and Dream Empress. Just Jenda (Eight Belles Stakes), What a Pear (Bouwerie Stakes), and Frolic’s Dream (G3 Nassau County), along with Elusive Heat and Evita Argentina are sticking with sprints. Other key fillies missing: UAE Oaks winner Devotee is aimed for next Sunday’s 1000 Guineas, while Japanese-owned Earth Living hasn’t appeared since her second place finish in the UAE Oaks. And what about the best 2-year-olds on dirt? What happened to Garden District, Persistently, Sky Diva, Be Smart, Jardin, Garden District, and Mine All Mine?

While we enjoyed a bountiful 2008 with three-year-old fillies, I fear this year will be an entirely different story. Friday will be interesting, though, as also running at Churchill will be the magnificent Zenyatta, who’s confirmed for the G2 Louisville Distaff.

Zenyatta vs. Rachel Alexandra—now that’s a matchup to look forward to later this year!

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Hot Derby Jocks

Obviously, winning the Derby involves a myriad of issues—from proper preparation, to the ability to handle both the surface and distance. The jockey isn’t a defining factor, but he also isn’t just an idle passenger. That said, who’s looking hot when it comes to the Derby, and who’s not?

News that Alan Garcia will ride Regal Ransom in the Kentucky Derby bodes very well for his chances, and sinks Desert Party for me (sorry, Ramon Dominguez). In fact, coupled with the outstanding workout he posted last Saturday, Regal Ransom moves up several spots among my top contenders—and, I’m sorry to say, at the expense of Dunkirk who I like less and less each day, not only due to the “Toddster Factor,” but particularly with Edgar Prado up instead of Garrett Gomez. Don’t get me wrong, I respect Prado’s talents, but he doesn’t appear to be enjoying a banner year thus far. As of April 22, he’s actually not among the top ten in earnings, and even further behind in percentages (a modest 14% win). And despite Dominguez winning at an astonishing 30% clip (which was mostly at a severely-depleted Aqueduct where he—and only he, it seems—got the best horses), I’m not enamored with Desert Party much. Alan Garcia just really clicked with Regal Ransom when they reunited in the UAE Derby.

Garrett Gomez is winning at a phenomenal 24% rate, which should please those who believe Pioneerof the Nile can transfer his form to dirt. However, just because I Want Revenge and Papa Clem have done so, doesn’t mean it will happen for the Zayat horse—at least first up, if ever. Of course, the same thing could be said for Mr. Hot Stuff (who I have been touting as a Derby contender). However, as a son of Tiznow and full-brother to Colonel John, Mr. Hot Stuff has precedent on his side—after failing in the Derby on his first dirt try, Colonel John came back East and won the G1 Travers. [As an aside, I missed his website last year—why don’t more race horses have these? A great idea to draw and involve fans!] Empire Maker’s progeny, on the other hand, appear more comfortable on turf and artificial surfaces. And I just don’t think Pioneerof the Nile has actually demonstrated any progression in his last two races. And just who will Eoin Harty get to ride Mr. Hot Stuff? His previous jocks—Gomez, Bejarano and Nakatani—have all taken other rides, although I bet they’re hoping Square Eddie doesn’t run so Nakatani can be reunited with the gorgeous near-black colt.

Among those jockeys who already have a strong bond with their mounts, I particularly like Rafael Bejarano (Papa Clem), Joe Talamo (I Want Revenge), and Gabriel Saez (Friesan Fire). Bejarano is riding gangbusters in California, cranking out wins at an impressive 21%. Admittedly, he’s had no Derby success in four previous attempts: Andromeda’s Hero (8th), Point Determined (9th), Dominican (11th) and Anak Nakal (7th). Still, he could pull it off with this son of Smart Strike.

Joe Talamo may not yet be among the elite, but he is ahead of Prado in earnings and just one back in wins—and I love him on I Want Revenge! He really knows this horse, but his relative inexperience in big races may adversely affect IEAH’s horse on Derby day. Or maybe not. The same argument was used with Gabriel Saez last year, but he rode Eight Belles to an outstanding second place finish, and looks to do much better with Friesan Fire.

Coming in off strong meets at Gulfstream and Keeneland—not to mention a dual Classics winner last year in Big Brown—Kent Desormeaux (Hold Me Back) would naturally be considered a wise bet, but the Giant’s Causeway colt just strikes me as an artificial surface (and turf) specialist. WinStar’s other colt, the Toddster-trained Advice, looks highly-unlikely to take to the Derby distance, being by Chapel Royal, so I think its their third horse, Mr. Hot Stuff who is their best chance.

As for riders totally new to their mounts, Julien Leparoux (General Quarters) is a wise choice, but Eibar Coa sticking with Musket Man is either brilliant or too bad for his connections. I like Musket Man, I really do. I think he’s a horse that has and will continue to outrace his pedigree, so I would not be surprised to see him among the top five finishers. I just not all that thrilled with Coa, to be honest. I'm also still debating the wisdom of Mike Smith replacing Joel Rosario on Chocolate Candy.

Who do you like, and why?

Bet on the Kentucky Derby

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Giving the Bird (a Chance)

In this week’s Paulick Derby Index, Ray made note of the solitary vote for Summer Bird, thankfully without poking fun at the moron who actually voted for him. Oh wait, that was me! Yes, in my latest Top Ten Derby Contenders, I rank Summer Bird in tenth place:

1. Friesan Fire
2. Papa Clem
3. I Want Revenge
4. Musket Man
5. Quality Road
6. Dunkirk
7. Mr. Hot Stuff
8. Chocolate Candy
9. Regal Ransom
10. Summer Bird

You may ask, am I insane? Do I honestly think he can defeat the top contenders? Well, maybe not, but I do think I’ve pegged a colt that will be a huge underlay on Derby Day, and could play a major role in the exotics. Plus, he and his connections are just such a compelling story.

Turf writer Jennie Rees authored a nice piece on Thursday about his jockey Chris Rosier, a once-cocky “punk” with less than 150 lifetime wins who went blind for six days in 2004 due to his diabetes. You may recall Rosier starred, along with Shane Sellers and Randy Romero, in the 2004 HBO documentary Jockey, where he probably said some things that he later regretted. After being away from racing for nearly two years, Rosier returned full-time only last summer, and now he’s riding in the Kentucky Derby. Not exactly "rags-to-riches" but more like the return of the Prodigal Son.

Summer Bird’s 34-year-old trainer Tim Ice struck out on his own only this year, after working for years as an assistant for Morris Nicks, Cole Norman and Keith Desormeaux. His first stakes-winner was the filly Affirmed Truth who won the Rainbow Miss Stakes at Oaklawn in March. How ironic if a first-time Derby trainer defeated the Toddster!

For his breeder-owners Kalarikkal and Vilasini Jayaraman, Summer Bird will be their second Derby horse—G1 Flamingo Stakes runner-up Irish Actor managed a seventh-place finish in Sunday Silence’s muddy 1989 Derby. Admittedly, I know very little about this couple, as a Google search reveals nothing particular about their character, only that they have run horses at tracks all across the country, and among the horses they have bred is G1 La Brea victress (and one-time $10k claimer) Dearest Trickski. By flying under the radar, I assume they are good folks.

Sounds like the makings of a Cinderella story so far. And then there’s the horse himself. A homebred son of $10k stud Birdstone out of the Summer Squall mare Hong Kong Squall, his pedigree is rich in Kentucky Derby history. His sire Birdstone finished eighth in the 2004 Derby, but, skipping the Preakness, he came back to ruin Smarty Jones’ Triple Crown by upsetting the Belmont. His grandsire Grindstone and great-grandsire Unbridled are both Derby winners, while on his dam side there’s Derby runner-up Summer Squall (out of a Secretariat mare) who also sired 1999 Derby winner Charismatic, and his second dam is a daughter of 1987 Derby victor Alysheba (son of the great Classics runner-up Alydar). No questionable breeding here.

Why I really like his chances, though, is based on two things—his quick-improving career trajectory and his strong late running style. Unraced at two, his maiden effort at six furlongs on March 1—yes, just over seven weeks ago—resulted in a late-closing fourth-place finish, just one length behind the winner. It was a pretty extraordinary effort considering it was his first run after posting only three official workouts, and he raced wide (at one point, six wide) nearly the entire race. He broke his maiden next out, on March 19, also at Oaklawn. This time he went 1-1/16 mile, and again he raced far back from the leaders and wide. Coming around the final turn he takes the lead, but when Luv Gov makes a closing move on his inside, he reignites and wins easily by just over two lengths—under a handride by Rosier. In the 1-1/8 mile G2 Arkansas Derby, he trailed the entire field behind quick fractions, but, in nearly carbon-copy fashion, widely circles the field and is closing late on Papa Clem and Old Fashioned, passing both shortly after the finish line. His three Beyer figures: 65, 78, and 99.

Could he be simply an Oaklawn horse? Sure, that’s possible. And, yes, all three of his races thus far have been run the same way—trailing the field, making wide moves and closing fast down the middle of the track. He’s definitely green, although you can clearly view a maturing horse in watching his three efforts thus far. Is he in over his head attempting the Derby in only his fourth career start? Remember Big Brown? In no way am I saying the two are comparable at this point in time, but I am suggesting that a lightly-raced Summer Bird can be competitive.

After he works six furlongs on Friday morning at Churchill, we’ll see if the 12-1/2 hour van ride from Hot Springs took anything out of him. I, for one, am willing to give the Bird a chance.

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Time to Focus on What's Important

As a nation, we Americans love big sporting events. Why? In our secular society, they represent a cultural unifier, a shared experience that brings us together—even while we may be rooting against one another.

Exhibit #1: the NCAA men’s basketball tournament. Even if you know nothing about college basketball or your alma mater didn’t make the cut, nearly every office worker gets sucked into playing the office pool. Add to that the wall-to-wall coverage of games on CBS—not to mention literally every broadcast moment on the various ESPN networks analyzing every team, every performance, every possible scenario—and it’s easy to see why it’s called “March Madness.”

Admittedly, team sports have an advantage, with their built-in fan base (whether university town, city or entire region) and bountiful marketing opportunities, but sometimes it’s the lesser known or followed sports that garner the nation’s spotlight.

For example, while NASCAR enjoys nearly weekly attention, it’s only once a year that anyone pays attention to Indy cars. And why do we bother? Maybe it’s because the Indianapolis 500 has been run since 1911. Synonymous with Memorial Day weekend, the “Greatest Spectacle in Racing” is a historical staple in most American homes. It certainly was in mine, growing up in the 1970s. A.J. Foyt, Al and Bobby Unser, Johnny Rutherford, Mario Andretti, Rick Mears—god knows why I still recall these names since I am not even a casual car racing fan today, but I can still clearly hear Jim McKay and Jackie Stewart reciting those names above the roar of engines whooshing by, lap after lap.

And so we horse racing fans will soon enjoy our moment in the sun—the First Saturday in May, the Run for the Roses, the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby. Okay, technically the Belmont Stakes is older (1867) and will be run for the 141st time this June 6, but it is the Kentucky Derby which has, since 1875, captured the hearts and minds of Americans. Even neophytes to the sport will, while sipping their ghastly version of mint juleps, pick a favorite—based on a name, a color, a hunch or even (gasp!) careful handicapping or the recommendation of a friend—to root on to victory. Perfectly crafted for an attention-deficit society, the race is over in just about two minutes, and once again these gorgeous animals prove exactly what they were bred to do.

Sometime over the past week, I hit the wall in terms of bitterness, frustration and anger when it comes to the idiocy, the hypocrisy, manifested again and again in this sport so, at least for the next eleven days, this will be a “bitch-free” zone. I have my biases, particularly against those distasteful connections that damage racing far more than they think, and their apologists which are no better. Still, why let them become the story? I want this Derby to be about the horses and the good people in horse racing, of whom too little ink is spilt.

When so many other things are wrong and out of control in the world around us, how simple it is to fall in love with a horse—or two.

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Mamma Mia!

The 2009 Hall of Fame inductees were announced on Monday and, not surprisingly, Bob Baffert made it in on his first attempt. His trainee Silverbulletday was selected in the contemporary female category, while Tiznow was the male selection. Solid choices, but why they limit inductees to one per category is beyond me. And not that I have anything against Randy Romero or Alex Solis, but it was nice to see Eddie Maple get in. While I will always associate him with Temperance Hill who upset Genuine Risk in the 1980 Belmont Stakes, Eddie Maple also rode Foolish Pleasure when the little bay defeated the great Forego in the 1976 Suburban Handicap, one of his best races. Also, it was Maple who was the last jockey to ride the incomparable Secretariat, winning the Canadian International over the Woodbine turf. Great memories, I’m sure, but an even greater honor to be elected to the Hall of Fame—congratulations!

Last August I argued (to no avail) for Xtra Heat’s nomination to the Hall of Fame, so I figure this year I need to start the campaign earlier. While a successful return to the track by her daughter Elusive Heat might aid the effort, I submit to you these recent photos of the soon-to-be-mother, looking gorgeously dabbled and in foal to Street Cry. A huge thank you to blog-friend (and fellow Xtra Heat aficionado) Laurie Asseo for her wonderful photos, taken at Woodford Thoroughbreds in early April.


Xtra Heat in foal to Street Cry, April 2009. Photo by Laurie Asseo


Xtra Heat in foal to Street Cry, April 2009. Photo by Laurie Asseo

And just to add, breeding Xtra Heat to Street Cry is a brilliant merging of speed and stamina. Other horses bred on the Street Cry-Northern Dancer cross include G1 winners Street Sense, Street Hero, Majestic Roi, Whobegotyou and G2 winner Street Sounds.

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Tin Cup Chalice Euthanized

Only a day after being announced 2008 New York state-bred three-year-old male, Tin Cup Chalice was euthanized at Finger Lakes this morning following a training accident. Story over at the Thoroughbred Times. Always very sad to hear of things like this.

My last days of classes, with only finals week standing between me and four blissful months of summer vacation...lots of Kentucky Derby discussion, and other commentary, to come shortly!

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Momma Got Back

Champion filly Proud Spell has officially been retired, and, wasting no time, was immediately bred to Indian Charlie. Using Bloodhorse’s Stallion Register Online, you can run a True Nicks hypothetical mating report and see that breeding on this cross has produced such speedy fillies as Fleet Indian, Pampered Princess, Indyanne, and once-rival Indian Blessing. Wow! Let’s pray for a little filly to carry on mom’s legacy.

Also, as an interesting tidbit, Summer Bird’s performance in the G2 Arkansas Derby got me looking a little deeper into his background. Not much there with the immediate dam, but his 3rd dam Ruby Slippers produced multi-G1 winner Rubiano, as well as Tap Your Heels, dam of Tapit. Lacking graded stakes earnings for the Kentucky Derby, Summer Bird is apparently aiming for the May 8 G3 Lone Star Derby where I suspect our resident Texan and frozen margarita lover Sue at Post Parade will regale us (perhaps slightly drunkenly) with the inside scoop. From there, much like his sire Birdstone, Summer Bird will attempt to upset the G1 Belmont Stakes. Ah, what a summer it's fixin' to be!

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Old Fashioned Injured, Out of Derby

The DRF is reporting Old Fashioned suffered a "non-displaced slab fracture to his right knee" during the Arkansas Derby, and will be shipped Monday to Rood & Riddle for surgery. While not life-threatening, we may have seen the last of Old Fashioned today. Obviously, this is heartbreaking news for his connections, and I offer only best wishes for his recovery.

That said—and please understand the context in which I say this—perhaps it is for the best that he won’t be running in the Kentucky Derby. While he has always be high on my contenders list (and how could one not acknowledge his talent), I have grown increasingly convinced that he couldn’t get the Derby distance.

Papa Clem’s win bodes well for his Derby chances, and how about his sire Smart Strike? First Curlin, and now Papa Clem (don't get excited, I'm not claiming Papa Clem is in Curlin's class...yet). Along with I Want Revenge, I’m still ranking these two above fellow West Coaster Pioneerof the Nile based not only on their proven success on dirt, but also the tough races and improvement they have demonstrated, as opposed to Pioneerof the Nile not particularly moving forward.

And how about 24-1 longshot Summer Bird flashing home late to fill out a $1 trifecta that paid $271.80? Gotta love those Birdstones! (Don’t ask if I actually played the trifecta I advocated...my Twinspires account went dry after the Blue Grass and I decided to sit out this race, not wanting to “curse” Papa Clem).

General Quarters shocked in the Blue Grass, with Hold Me Back and Massone forming the tri. Terrain’s fourth was okay, but Charitable Man was a huge disappointment as was Mafaaz—both were beaten by 93-1 longshot Loch Dubh (who I love).

Finally, with the lackluster performances of Danger to Society (9th, Arkansas Derby) and Patena (10th, Blue Grass)—and barring IEAH getting to replace Jeff Mullins as trainer of I Want Revenge—it appears karma has come back to bite Dick Dutrow on the ass this year. And it couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.

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Put Up or Shut Up Time for Derby Contenders

After three big Kentucky Derby preps last weekend spanning coast-to-coast, this weekend is more tame by comparison, although by no means less important. For some, it’s time to either step up and confirm Derby worthiness—or fade silently into the night. And with the winner’s share of the G1 Blue Grass being $465,000, and the $1 million G2 Arkansas Derby paying out $600,000 for first and $200,000 for second, an entirely new previously-unconsidered contender could emerge. Doubtful, but at least the Derby field should be clearer with only three weeks to go.

As of right now, without the Blue Grass and Arkansas earnings and barring any defections, here's your Kentucky Derby field:

1. Mafaaz (guaranteed berth)
2. Regal Ransom
3. Pioneerof the Nile
4. Square Eddie
5. I Want Revenge
6. Desert Party
7. Quality Road
8. Friesan Fire
9. Musket Man
10. Terrain
11. West Side Bernie
12. Chocolate Candy
13. Old Fashioned
14. Hold Me Back
15. Win Willy
16. Giant Oak
17. Papa Clem
18. Charitable Man
19. Dunkirk
20. Mine That Bird


Notice, no Stardom Bound (scuttle bug says she’s currently undergoing testing) or Rachel Alexandra (apparently her connections have decided on the Oaks after all), but a field that looks superiorly more talented than last year's. Here's how I see today's prep races.


G1 Blue Grass:
Terrain looks strong here for a number of reasons: proven over Keeneland’s Polytrack, he should improve in his second start since a layoff with red-hot Julien Leparoux up. Bill Mott and Kent Desormeaux partnered for a big win with Mr. Sidney in the G1 Maker’s Mark on Friday (one of Desormeaux’ four wins on the day); their Lane’s End victor Hold Me Back is in good form with the highest last race speed figure in this field. While on paper those two look best, I’d most like to see Charitable Man fire big—I still recall his impressive maiden win at Saratoga, and I’m such a sucker for Lemon Drop Kid offspring. He has been working gangbusters at Palm Meadows and a sharp work at Keeneland leading to this. For longshots who may get money, I’ll take a hard look at two—Join in the Dance who as the sole early speed could steal this on the front end, and Patena who just held off G1 Ashland winner Hooh Why in winning the Display Stakes at Woodbine last December. He should love getting back on Polytrack, but I might have to gag if his connections get to celebrate in the winner’s circle, or succeed getting into the Derby with winnings here. Yeah, that would be IEAH who went out and purchased I Want Revenge after Patena disappointed last out in the G2 Louisiana Derby.


G2 Arkansas Derby:
Time for Old Fashioned to reestablish his position among the Kentucky Derby favorites—I like his chances to do just that, but Papa Clem could very well take them wire-to-wire. Win Willy is a nice story so I wouldn’t be disappointed to see him in the money. For a longshot flyer, how about recent maiden winner Summer Bird? I love Birdstone, and he has a nice closing style.


In response to my recent rant, fellow blogger Tony Bada Bing over at A Leg Up has posed some thought-provoking ideas that address how the horse racing industry might be forced to adopt uniformity in rules and penalties in regards to drug use, et al. Take a look and give him your two cents. I’m not sure federal government involvement is ideal, but certainly holding interstate simulcasting rights (and the distribution of slots money at the state level) might be an effective motive for all involved to clean up their act.

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Fanning the Flames

Apparently, we silly bloggers (or pundits, if you will) are over-reacting. When trainer Jeff Mullins is caught red-handed giving Air Power via oral syringe to Gato Go Win in the detention barn at Aqueduct, it’s not technically cheating—because saintly Michael Matz endorses this over-the-counter product which promises it “won’t test positive in any race or show jurisdiction”? The race day medication rules in New York are crystal clear, yet we should believe the oft-caught cheater Mullins when he publically declares it was an “honest mistake”? Kind of reminds me of the story of the boy who cried “wolf!”—if you do it often enough, no one will believe you are sincere. And, lo, the list of Mullins’ previous infractions is lengthy, as are the first-hand accounts of associates and others who attest to him being ethically-challenged.

As an educator, I regularly deal with the ethical issue of “cheating”—particularly this time of year, as final exams and papers are right around the corner. Admittedly, we are not talking about the same beast, but fundamentally there is a clear boundary that exists in both instances. “Cheating” does not necessary entail “nefarious intent.” Often times, cheating is a matter of desperation, but I’ve come to realize that for some students it is a matter of doing so because it’s easy, and they can get away with it. Rules don’t apply to them, mostly because their parents instilled in them, either deliberately or inadvertently, a sense of entitlement. Yet, when cornered, they often plead ignorance—“you never told us that cutting and pasting passages from Wikipedia into our paper wasn’t allow.” Unfortunately, I’m serious. So, Mullins figured because he gained access to the barn carrying the syringe and medication it was perfectly acceptable to use it. Astonishing!

Most disturbingly in the aforementioned criticism aimed at bloggers this week, because we discuss—passionately—this type of situation on the blogosphere, somehow we are contributing to horse racing’s public relations problem? I have a real problem with that kind of thinking.

When I began this blog two years ago, it was because I had no other outlet to discuss my passion for horse racing, as none of my friends, family or colleagues has more than a passing interest in the sport. You, dear reader, you are my people! If you have discovered this blog within the abyss that is the World Wide Web, then we are of like mind—we are passionate about what was once known as the "Sport of Kings." We can respectfully disagree on specific issues, yet we never presume to stifle the right to put forth educated opinions or comments. That’s the beauty of public discourse in this technological age.

Horse racing doesn’t need we bloggers to give it a black eye. Through its archaic attitudes and insular fiefdoms, general (and pervasive) lack of respect for horseplayers and fans through high take-out rates and lack of free access to the most basic past performance information, tolerance of medicinal abuse by successful trainers backed by wealthy hedge fund investors and disbarred lawyers convicted of scamming clients, stories of horrific animal abuse by prominent owners and collusive tolerance for broken down claimers sent quietly to slaughter—the sport is doing a fine job of self-destruction.

As you might infer from this diatribe, I’m angry and disgusted. Nay, I’m officially pissed. Why do we tolerate cheaters and abusers, those who openly taunt the rules? Does it really all come down to the power of the all-mighty dollar? If so, then I must concur with my fellow TBA blogger Patrick over at Handride, and say I’m out.

That said, I am ever the optimist, so I still hold out hope that—before breeching the event horizon and officially imploding, going the way of the dinosaur as a relic of history—someone, or more specially a group of people, will step forward and do what needs to be done. No, not paying lip-service to doing the right thing, but officially taking the bull by the horns, biting the bullet, by hook or by crook—or whatever tired idiom you wish to use—and right this sinking ship.

If only I didn’t love this damn sport so much...

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Who Would Have Thought $1.9 Million a Bargain?

The Keeneland 2-year-olds in training sale concluded Tuesday night, with gross revenues down nearly 28%, and just a tad fewer than 70% of the horses originally cataloged scratched or RNA (reserve not achieved). It begs the question, exactly what is going to happen to those that didn’t sell? It’s hard to imagine all those breeders and pinhookers will race them, or make private sales of any but the very best. Sounds like a lot of mediocre horses being bred with no particularly place to go—and undoubtedly some with potential being overlooked, or slipping through the cracks as few have the patience (or financial wherewithal) to nurture them as they grow into becoming good racehorses. And this isn’t just in reference to Keeneland, but the breeding industry as a whole.

On Monday, Azeri’s first foal Vallenzeri sold for $1.9 million, which is a princely sum; however, what a comedown from the $7.7 million record he set just last September as a buy-back. Goodness, who would think $1.9 million was a bargain? Do you think Michael Paulson feels like an idiot for passing up the big bucks the first time around? According to the DRF, Bob Baffert says the colt soon-not-to-be-known-as-Vallenzeri will be shipped to California for training. (Please, no cracks about The Green Monkey...yet. Maybe in honor of Bob they will call him The Silver-Haired Monkey?).

Some other famous siblings passed through the sales ring on Tuesday evening, including: a half-sister to English Channel ($190k); a half-sister to Lost in the Fog ($150k); a half-brother to Circle of Life, dam of Circular Quay ($175k); and a half-sister to Massive Drama ($100k). Two notables who failed to meet their reserve: an Elusive Quality colt ($340k) whose half-sister is the dam of Rachel Alexandra; and a Tale of the Cat colt ($240k) whose dam is a half-sister to Pioneerof the Nile.

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Hooh Hah!

Did you take Hooh Why for the upset in the G1 Ashland? Not to toot my own horn, but I did, as I mentioned previously I liked that she had raced well against colts at Woodbine last fall. $50 win payout! Stardom Bound has clearly lost a step, and I’d be shocked if she runs in the G1 Kentucky Oaks—don’t be surprise if there’s an announcement shortly about some physical issue or even a retirement. Ah, what a great young career she had!

As for the Kentucky Derby preps, I’m duly impressed with I Want Revenge, especially after his disastrous start in the G1 Wood Memorial, as Joe Talamo split through a wall of horses late to win going away. The biggest mistake IEAH can make regarding this horse is changing his jockey, as the Kid looks to share a special bond with him. As for his trainer, Milkshake Jeff Mullins, well…it’s another nightmare, isn’t it, coming off Rick Dutrow’s prominent media presence last year? Honestly, it doesn’t aid IEAH’s slimy reputation in that their trainers are, shall we say, “ethically-challenged.”

Imperial Council is definitely not going to the Derby even if he does have enough earnings, according to trainer Shug McGaughey—good call! He looks to need time to mature. Lime Rickey’s dirt experiment was a huge failure—stick to the turf! West Side Bernie had no excuses in finishing a well-beaten second, but his connections will likely continue to the Derby.

Musket Man outperformed his pedigree again, winning the G2 Illinois Derby over Giant Oak and 51-1 bomber His Greatness. Nice to see a cheap ($15k) yearling purchase doing so well, but I just can’t see a son of Yonaguska, out of a Fortunate Prospect mare, win the Kentucky Derby. Oh, barring any injury, he’ll make the field and his connections will enjoy themselves no doubt, but I just can’t see him there among the top three finishers.

The G1 Santa Anita Derby turned out to be fraught with intrigue, as The Pamplemousse was scratched with a reported left front tendon issue. The additional scratches of Cape Truth and Z Day left no early pace, so once again Pioneerof the Nile was not challenged and won in another slow race (1:49.17)—way slower than The Pamplemousse’s victory in the G3 Sham (1:47.86). Chocolate Candy closed nicely for second and Mr. Hot Stuff rounded out the trifecta. I know there are those who think highly of the West Coast contingent, but I’m sorry, I just don’t see it.

At Aqueduct, nice to see Taqarub rebound from his awful performance last out, but he was no match for Capt. Candyman Can in the G3 Bay Shore. It was also sweet to see old-timer Harry Vega up on 49-1 Yano hang on for third; Yano’s dam is the Foolish Pleasure mare Sabreen who was out of one of his last crops, and I’ve always like Vega, not the least because of his association with Xtra Heat. Fabulous Strike is such a trooper, as he stretched out just beyond his best distance and was nipped by Kodiak Kowboy in the G1 Carter.

Finally, it is time for me to truly, once and for all, give up on Tomcito the “Peruvian Mystery Horse.” Bringing him back after an extended layoff in the G3 Skip Away was not ambitious, just plain stupid. I forgave the slooowww workouts thinking that was his style, but obviously this horse just isn’t as good as his hype.

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Golden Slipper Day Live Blog

Selections for Rosehill’s monstrous Golden Slipper Day card:

Race 1A—Neville Sellwood Stakes
Trainer Gai Waterhouse begins a big day with the favorite here, Faulconbridge who drops a couple pounds from his runner-up effort in the Kembla Cup last out; he’s only finished out the money once in ten races, and won six over all surface conditions. Nice post, with Blake Shinn up. Another one to take a hard-look at is Keepin’ the Dream coming in off a win in the Sky High Stakes under Jim Cassidy; last September he finished second behind Bianca on the heavy Wyong Gold Cup track. Twin Wing loves the wet, with placings in all three heavy track efforts; narrow loss to Keepin’ the Dream last out with Chris Munce up.

Result: Okay, we’re going to have to focus on lightweights, and perhaps closers. My three picks led most of the way, but in deep stretch, Ausbred King, Sussman and Absent Friends went by—all coming off the pace. Congratulations to jockey Kathy O’Hara for the win. $1,000+ trifecta


Race 2A—G2 Tulloch Stakes
Predatory Pricer comes in off a nice third-place finish to Heart of Dreams in the G2 Phar Lap, but the heavy is a concern; he’s done well enough with a little sting out, but not as well with the heavy. Wembly finished fifth (but only 1 length back) to Samantha Miss in last year’s G1 Champagne on a yielding surface, and posted a close-up second in his only previous heavy track attempt; he comes in off a win and could surprise here. Dr. Doute’s is, along with Predatory Pricer, the class of the field and has performed well enough on soft going. However, considering the results of that first race, I might take a flyer on Glen Boss and Old Jock—his form is nowhere near that the top two, but has won on the heavy.

Result: New Zealand rules! Harris Tweed muscled out Dr. Doute’s and Old Jock.


Race 3A—G1 Storm Queen Stakes
I love Glowlamp, and one of these days she’ll win—but probably not today, although she does get Hugh Bowman up. Gallica is super-talented, but the heavy is a big question mark. Il Quello Veloce is a true wet-tracker, and Darren Beadman up is a big bonus; the distance is the question. The other wet-tracker looks to be Sheikh Mohammed’s Purple, with his top jock Kerrin McEvoy up—but she’s been disappointing in runs this campaign.

Result: Sorry, Anne, but indeed the mudlark Purple made it look easy; Gold Water and Gallica followed, and once again Glowlamp was up close but no luck.


Race 4A—G1 Queen of the Turf Stakes
Culminate loves the wet, and finished a nice second to Typhoon Tracy in the G1 Coolmore last out. I don’t think you can count out Neroli who runs well on everything. Champagne Harmony is in great form, with an impressive close-up finish in the G1 Robert Sangster last out. You can’t fault Gallant Tess’s form, but in 10 races at Rosehill, she’s only won 1 and placed in 6—frustrating, no doubt, so can’t peg her for the win, but live for a placing. Hot Danish has won three in a row, so don't be surprised if she rolls for her fourth, as she loses nearly 10 lbs from her last race.

Result: Sheikh Mohammed scores with his Neroli narrowly defeating Hot Danish, with Imananabaa nosing out Chinchilla Rose for third.


Race 5A—G1 BMW Stakes
Love Melbourne Cup winner Viewed here; he won the G2 Brisbane Cup last June on the heavy. I’m a big Theseo fan, but he’s questionable on the wet. Road To Rock (with big-race jock Glen Boss up) looks more promising here. G1 Auckland Cup victor Mr Tipsy is a huge price, but also 3 for 3 on heavy tracks—could be huge price! His trainer won race 2 with another New Zealand shipper.

Result: Talk about it being Darren Beadman’s day, as 45-1 Fiumicino beat Theseo and Viewed. At least Chris Munce stuck on Newport; the gray’s been notorious for dumping riders of late. Still, not close today, but Master O’Reilly was fourth. I must have been tipsy betting on Mr Tipsy! :)


Race 6A—G1 George Ryder Stakes
I call “uncle” on this race. Way too many talented runners, and this track is a crapshoot, as those who haven’t been in form for awhile are winning. The obvious wet trackers are my long-time favorite Vision and Power, as well as Triple Honour, Sarrera and Fravashi. All Silent looks awful tough too, and wouldn’t it be great to see Light Fantastic back to his old self?

Result: Way to go, Vision and Power! He nipped Black Piranha who from his form looked a clear dry track horse! This is just crazy. Third went to King Mufhasa who nosed out All Silent. Congratulations to jock Jim Cassidy on his 100th G1 victory.


Race 7A—G1 Golden Slipper Stakes
The pièce de résistance, the Golden Slipper. Interestingly, of the sixteen starters, nine are fillies, six colts and one gelding. Only one has run on heavy, So Anyway, who finished third in a maiden plate at Wyong. Can’t imagine she’s a serious threat here. Gai Waterhouse has three real possibilities: Horizons (Blake Shinn), Manhattan Rain (Nash Rawiller), and More Joyous (Darren Beadman). If I had my choice, the winner would be More Joyous. Of course, it doesn’t work that way (at my whim) so serious challengers to consider are Real Saga and Rostova. Can Phelan Ready master this field?

Result: Phelan Ready wins! A Foolish Pleasure descendent! Awesome. Another More Than Ready offspring wins the Golden Slipper; Sebring won last year. Glen Boss on the filly Headway won the photo for second over Manhattan Rain. Real Saga was fourth. Very disappointing that More Joyous couldn’t handle the wet, but not surprised.


Race 8A—listed Schweppervescence Stakes
Aichi looks the obvious choice here, but the other Peter Snowden horse Posadas does well coming in off a layoff. Mount Verde is a true wet tracker and looks a nice possibility here, as does Fighting Fund with Kathy O’Hara up.

Result: Finally, I cash a decent ticket, as Mount Verde holds off the Darley pair of Aichi and Posadas.


Race 9A—listed Royal Parma Stakes
Final race. Time for a Gai Waterhouse winner in Royal Discretion. Still, Mr. Baritone has a heck of a wet track race—but he hasn’t won since last June. Pins on Parade looks in good form, and an out-and-out wet tracker is With A Chance at a big price.

Result: Darren Beadman is god. He takes out the finale with Dao Dao. Second was Musket, and third Pins on Parade; Royal Discretion was fourth.

What a thrilling night!

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Golden Slipper Day

It’s a huge day for racing in Australia later with the running of the world’s premier 2-year-old race, the $3.5 million G1 Golden Slipper. I’m also looking forward to the G1 BMW, G1 George Ryder, G1 Storm Queen, and G1 Queen of the Turf—in all, nearly $7.5 million in prizes will be awarded in 9 races at Rosehill. A complete form guide for the races is available here.

Later today I’ll evaluate and put forth opinions on each race, but feel free to post your insights here now. Apparently the track will be a true Heavy, so look for those who love the wet. With that in mind, I think today is—finally—the day that Glowlamp breaks her maiden in the G1 Storm Queen. Who do you like or dislike?

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Road Trip to Charles Town Anyone?

I know, I know, it's not Keeneland, but is anyone up for a road-trip to Charles Town on Saturday, April 18? Word is the venerable Commentator will be running there in the $1 million Charles Town Classic. Nominations close this coming Saturday, so we’ll have a better idea what other “big” names might show up. One likely starter, at least according to the West Point Thoroughbreds’ website, is Macho Again who comes in off a winning effort in the G2 New Orleans Handicap. Wouldn’t that be sweet? The Classic is only one of five stakes slated for that date, with the others being the $250k Sugar Maple Stakes (7f, f/m 4yo+), $100k Blue and Gold Stakes (7f, 3yo), $100k Webb Snyder Stakes (4.5f, 3yo+), and $50k Salerno Stakes (7f, WV 3yo+).

This weekend’s racing just keeps getting better and better. In addition to the top 3-year-old races—both those for colts and fillies—are a plethora of other graded stakes, including the G3 Skip Away at Gulfstream. Besides G1 Donn runner-up Finallymadeit, the race features the apparently-rejuvenated Fierce Wind (owned by Halsey Minor) and the “Peruvian mystery horse” (as he will forever be known) Tomcito who makes his first start since last May’s G2 Peter Pan, for new trainer Thomas Albertrani. Ah, he gets Jose Lezcano up! I always thought this would be a good horse-jockey matchup, so I’m looking forward to getting a nice price on Tomcito. (Hope ever burns eternal, I know.)

Immediately prior to the G1 Wood Memorial, the G3 Excelsior promises us a good old-fashioned reunion of last year’s Kentucky Derby wanna-bes and has-beens: Barrier Reef, Alaazo, Cool Coal Man, Giant Moon, and Atoned. Boy, doesn’t that sound like all the losing tickets I threw out last year? Toss in a pair of Chilean invaders—Real Merchant and Kurbat—and you have the makings of an amusing little race. Unfortunately, it’s one that likely to prove, yet again, just how incredibly weak last year’s 3-year-old male crop was. I’ll put my money on the two South Americans, thank you very much!

Very sad news that Thistledown has canceled this year’s G2 Ohio Derby, not because the race itself was all that significant in the grand scheme of things, but because it was a show-piece event for the track—one that had been run for 74 years, with winners including Black Gold, Our Native, Broad Brush, Brass Hat, Skip Away, and the Kentucky Oaks winning filly Paradisical. How many more of these old-time races are we going to lose?

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