And The 2010 Kentucky Derby Winner Is…

Ah, it’s about that time, and I dread making a Kentucky Derby selection for fear of dooming another contender. All those I’ve touted this year—Maximus Ruler, Odysseus, Eskendereya, and Endorsement—have now fallen by the wayside, so I’ll whimp out and instead outline who I think can (and can't) win and why.

I wrote a piece for Hello Race Fans! about Derby pedigrees, and the top three I analyzed there also happened to have worked extremely well this week and have great off-track credentials—Super Saver, Discreetly Mine and Ice Box.

I liked Super Saver’s sharp 4 furlong work in the slop, and don’t think you can ever discount Calvin Borel riding a big race at Churchill. He drew post 4, which will save this early speed horse ground running to the first turn. Other things to like: he’s won over this track (G2 Kentucky Jockey Cup); this is his third start off a break; his numbers have improved each race; and, oh, did I mention Calvin Borel?

Unfortunately, Discreetly Mine drew post 15 so this early runner may have to use up too much speed, and, despite his victory in the G2 Risen Star, he just hasn’t been going quite as well as the others. I doubt he can pull another Mine That Bird surprise, so I may leave him off my exotics.

Ice Box, on the other hand, looks awesome! I have no doubt he can get the distance, and, though it took awhile to get him going well, his late closing style should serve him well with the number of speed horses in here (Sidney’s Candy, Conveyance, Line of David, etc.).

I like Mission Impazible a lot—I’m a big fan of Rajiv Maragh who rode this horse perfectly in the G2 Louisiana Derby, and his workout with stablemate Rule last Saturday was impressive with the ease he worked over the sloppy track. If it rains Derby day, he (and Super Saver) will probably be my top picks. Come on, as good as Unbridled’s Song progeny are, they have got to win a Derby—and nearly did with Eight Belles. Plus, former Pittsburgh Steelers Terry Bradshaw owns a piece of him. Who doesn’t want to see that coon-ass in the winner’s circle?

There are legitimate reasons why Devil May Care performed poorly in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (hated Pro-Ride surface) and in the G3 Silverbulletday (agitated by gate crew’s use of ear tongs). You can pooh-pooh all you want about her chances, but she and Conveyance are the only two horses in the field who have twice run 100+ Bris speed figures, and that G2 Bonnie Miss was faster than the same-day Florida Derby, as well as the Illinois Derby, Arkansas Derby, Wood Memorial and Louisiana Derby. And she will wear blinkers on Saturday to better focus, and hopefully avoid the erratic running late.

Some I don’t like at all in Derby include those who haven’t proven themselves capable of running on dirt—Stately Victor, Dean’s Kitten, Make Music For Me, and Paddy O’Prado.

Other than his distant second-place finish behind Winslow Homer in his maiden effort at Saratoga, Stately Victor hasn’t run that well on dirt, turf or all-weather surfaces, except for the G1 Blue Grass which I no longer consider a legitimate test for Derby contenders. Other than providing graded stakes earnings, the Blue Grass is a complete fraud as a Grade 1 contest, thus stick Paddy O’Prado on my list of “not-a-chance-in-hell” horses too. Yeah, yeah, Paddy threw a bullet on the sloppy Churchill track last Friday. I’m still not buying him as a legitimate Derby horse. Ditto Make Music for Me who I suspect has serious distance limitations (in addition to potentially being a nice turf horse, à la Cowboy Cal), and Dean’s Kitten who can run all day—on turf.

Dublin was on my Paulick Top Ten list until this week when word leaked out that on two occasions while training he reacted strongly to relatively minor crowd noise, including 5,000 cheering marathon runners. How’s he going to react with the huge Derby crowd on Saturday? I love Backtalk, but in no way is he performing well enough, and his half-sister Bsharpsonata had some distance limits that I think apply to him as well. Ditto Homeboykris! Talk about ruining a nice potential miler by tossing him into the mix, especially being off for more than two months!

As for Lookin At Lucky, I’ve never been a fan, although he did run well on dirt in the G2 Rebel, and endured a piss-poor ride by Garrett Gomez to get third in the G1 Santa Anita Derby. But, breaking from the rail? No thank you. Same with Sidney’s Candy out in post 20. If he had drawn in closer, I would seriously consider Sidney’s Candy a threat to wire this field, but not betting on it now.

Noble’s Promise just won’t be able to run 10 furlongs; same story with Conveyance. A Florida powerhouse 2-year-old, Jackson Bend is the proverbial bridesmaid when running against the best. Don’t see that changing on Saturday. Awesome Act is probably better than his lost-shoe Wood Memorial demonstrated, but he beat nobody in the G3 Gotham. Not sure about the hype, but willing to bet against it unless he looks awesome in the post parade or it’s an off-track.

That leaves G1 Arkansas Derby winner Line of David and G3 Illinois Derby winner American Lion, both of whom look prime for a big bounce after their last career-best races. Unlike my dear friend John from The Race is Not Always to the Swift, I won’t be there in person, but will place my wagers via online Kentucky Derby betting—considering the crazy crowds and potential dreary weather, I’ll gladly watch from home. Good luck to all, and may all come home safe and sound.

P.S. Todd Pletcher will finally win his Kentucky Derby—bank on it.

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Viewed's Death a Blow to Foolish Pleasure Bloodline

Regular readers of this blog know of my deep fondness for Foolish Pleasure, the 1975 Kentucky Derby winner who was the first racehorse I fell in love with as a mere 10-year-old girl. Over the past years, I’ve often written about his influence, and even maintain a running update in the right-hand column of recent stakes placing by his descendents. The most recent years have been banner ones for my hero in the Land Down Under, particularly through his daughter Idyllic’s son Scenic who died in 2005, at age 19. As I wrote in a previous post, Scenic Blast won Horse of the Year, Phelan Ready was 2-year-old champion, and a host of others (including Coniston Bluebird, Scenic Shot, Sunburnt Land, Grand Nirvana, Nicconi and Niconero) won or placed in Grade 1 events.

Perhaps the gutsiest of the all was Viewed, who triumphed in the one of the greatest staying races in the world, the 2 mile G1 Melbourne Cup in 2008, and then won the 1-1/2 mile G1 Caulfield Cup last October.

Tragically, Viewed died last Saturday after suffering from a twisted bowel. His 82-year-old trainer Bart Cummings, an absolute legend in Australia, was admitted to the hospital a day later of a medical condition unrelated to Viewed’s death, but certainly saddened by his loss. The 6-year-old won nearly $5.8 million making 36 starts, with 9 wins and 7 placings.

Beyond the loss of a tremendous stayer just reaching the zenith of his career, Viewed’s loss is profoundly impactful on Foolish Pleasure’s bloodline and its continuing influence, as Viewed was not a gelding, but intact, and could have produced some wonderful offspring as a stud.

Farewell, Viewed. For those who haven't see it, here is his Melbourne Cup victory, by a mere nose over Bauer (he’s number 10, with black and white checks silks):

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Jockeying for Position

With the Kentucky Derby now less than 10 days away, every little morsel of information is consumed by fans and horseplayers, trying to determine strengths and weaknesses—or just plain old signs from above. The jockey situation is shaping up, although somewhat in flux with those who may or may not run. From what I’ve read, it looks like this based on graded earnings:

1. Lookin’ At Lucky—Garrett Gomez
2. Noble’s Promise—Willie Martinez
3. Rule—Ramon Dominguez
4. Sidney’s Candy—Joe Talamo
5. Eskendereya—John Velasquez
6. Line of David—Rafael Bejarano
7. Mission Impazible—Rajiv Maragh
8. Ice Box—Jose Lezcano
9. Stately Victor—Alan Garcia
10. Endorsement—Robby Albarado
11. Conveyance—TBA
12. American Lion—David Flores
13. Dublin—Terry Thompson
14. Super Saver—Calvin Borel
15. Discreetly Mine—TBA
16. Dean’s Kitten—TBA
17. Interactif—TBA
18. Awesome Act—Julien Leparoux
19. Paddy O’Prado—TBA
20. Homeboykris—Joel Rosario
21. Jackson Bend—Mike Smith
22. Backtalk—Miguel Mena

Interesting that Joel Rosario gets the mount aboard Homeboykris (a horse that Rick Dutrow should be ashamed of throwing into the Derby mix), while DRF’s Jay Privman reports regular rider Edgar Prado “will skip Derby Day at Churchill Downs and instead ride at Belmont Park.” Is this the beginning of the end of Prado’s career? Seriously, a seasoned jock like Prado skipping the Derby?

Who else is without a mount? Topping the bigger names is Kent Desormeaux (who has ridden Interactif on turf) and Javier Castellano (who rode Discreetly Mine to victory in the G2 Risen Star), but what ever has happened to Eibar Coa and Cornelio Velasquez (who’s been riding Dean’s Kitten, but isn’t confirmed as his jock)? You know who I would like to see given a chance? Both Rosie Napravnik and Rosemary Homeister, Jr. who have been riding fabulous of late, and even Elvis Trujillo.

As if Todd Pletcher doesn’t have a strong enough hand, word now that he may run the filly Devil May Care in the Derby. Looking at her record, some may scoff, but she obviously hated Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride in the BC Juvenile Fillies, and then Javier Castellano had to deal with a very agitated filly that was manhandled by the gate crew during the G3 Silverbulletday at Fair Grounds: “When she misbehaved, they [gate crew] got pretty severe and then used [ear] tongs, which most fillies don't handle well,” Pletcher said. She dominated the G2 Bonnie Miss, with slowing late fractions only due to her erratic running in the stretch—with blinkers added, she could be an interesting addition to the mix. Her half-brother Regal Ransom finished eighth in last year’s race, and if this year’s version happens to come up sloppy again, she could freak! Still, I’d much prefer to see Blind Luck in against the boys on the First Saturday in May...

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Derby Crapshoot?

I confess to bewilderment, bordering on disenchantment and even disillusionment, regarding this year’s Kentucky Derby prep races. Week after week passes, and thus far only Eskendereya has risen to each challenge presented to him. Oh-so-promising contenders fall by the wayside, and the most unlikely winners emerge. I’m beginning to believe that, come the First Saturday in May, the winner might best be selected by tossing a freaking coin. Then again, who ever said it was easy to bet on the Kentucky Derby?

Only Eskendereya has won two dirt preps—G2 Fountain of Youth, and G1 Wood Memorial—and done so with ease. How can he not be the Derby favorite at this point? By Giant’s Causeway out of a Seattle Slew mare, he’s bred to run classic distances and (surprise!) on dirt. Rightly or not, I always associate Giant’s Causeway progeny with turf (Shamardal, Aragon, My Typhoon, Red Giant), but he has had good dirt performers, like G1 Hopeful and G1 Champagne winner First Samurai, G1 Ruffian winner Swift Temper, and G1 Spinster victress Carriage Trail.

Honestly, I don’t hate synthetics—I love Keeneland and Woodbine, and follow Presque Isle horses that go on to run elsewhere (often a savvy handicapping angle). I enjoyed the recent Dubai World Cup races at Meydan for what they were. However, I firmly believe that synthetics are a third surface—not dirt, not turf, but something uniquely its own. And for that reason, I bemoan alleged championship “dirt” races being run on the stuff, and I intensely dislike synthetic Derby prep races.

Look at the G1 Blue Grass results as an example—a 40-1 longshot winner whose only previous victory in seven races was a maiden effort on turf, Stately Victor now has plenty of graded earnings to make the Derby field. A colt whose previous dirt race at Churchill Downs was a last-place (by nine lengths) first-level allowance level race last November, he’s lost his three prior out-of-the-money races this year by just over 14 lengths. Am I scornful of his Derby chances? Damn right! Another Monba or Dominican cluttering up the Derby field without a chance in hell of winning (yes, I said it here). My God, I just realized looking at his pedigree that his half-brother Senor Enrico is a $16k claimer running at Aqueduct on Wednesday. He’s won just twice in 44 starts, and he’ll be running here against the likes of Malibu Moonshine and Medjool—you remember him, the 2008 third-place finisher in the useless G2 Lane’s End at synthetic Turfway Park, now in for $16k tag.

Oh, and Blue Grass runner-up Paddy O’Prado is currently #19 in earnings, with $250,950—in addition to the $150k from Saturday’s win, his other graded winnings are from turf races. His only dirt try (albeit over a sloppy Churchill track going a mere six furlongs last July) was a seventh-of-eleven finish, nearly 12 lengths back. Let me reiterate: I have no problem with him getting second in the Blue Grass (well, maybe a little because I had him on top). I just don’t think he’s a worthy Derby contender.

And what the hell was Tom Albertrani thinking running Odysseus in the Blue Grass? I mean, seriously. He’s no Street Sense with plenty of graded earnings and a championship 2-year-old campaign behind him. Just look at how, since Keeneland switched to Polytrack in fall 2006, the Blue Grass has become practically irrelevant as a test for Derby success and, frankly, a sub-par Grade 1. The G1 Arkansas Derby would have made far more sense as he was training in Florida. Just a bad gamble, and now a talented “true-dirt” colt will probably not have enough earnings for the Derby. Frustrating doesn’t begin to cover it.

And what can one say about G1 Arkansas Derby winner Line of David? From turf allowance winner to Grade 1 on dirt—a Cinderella-story, right? By Lion Heart out of a Capote mare, John Sadler and the Thrashes have been wasting this young horse on California synthetics, and I do mean wasted as he’s been losing to complete nobodies on Hollywood’s Cushion track and Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride. Two turf wins against inferior competition, and then he gamely wins against...well, there’s Noble’s Promise and Dublin, second and third respectively to Lookin’ at Lucky in the G2 Rebel. Of course, Lookin’ at Lucky isn’t look so hot lately either (and if you are a West Coast apologist, don’t bother arguing with me because I find him suspect).

Maybe Sadler’s been hiding G1 Santa Anita Derby winner Sidney’s Candy in plain sight too, but I find it hard to envision a front-runner wiring the Derby. Then again, there was Winning Colors... He has won three graded stakes in a row this year, and, being by Candy Ride out of a Storm Cat mare, he should take to dirt—but that’s yet to be seen. Still, he’s in my top 10.

In addition to Eskendereya, I hope Pletcher does send Mission Impazible—I’m not convinced he can get the distance, but I want to see young Rajiv Maragh with a Derby mount. There aren’t many better young riders than he right now, and with Odysseus unlikely to get in due to earnings, this would be a good consolation ride. I doubt Rule—I love that his dam is a half-sister to Funny Cide, but his latest workout (4f, 52.40) is beyond slow. I know a tiny voice in the Internet wilderness won’t affect the Toddster’s decision-making process one bit, but, please, Todd, don’t run Aikenite, Interactif or Discreetly Mine. They just aren’t good enough. Concentrate on Eskendereya, Rule, Mission Impazible and Super Saver—damn, as if four horses aren’t enough for the normal person!

I like Ice Box’s running style, but it will only work if there is early hot speed that collapses. Super Saver’s narrow third-place finish in the G3 Tampa Bay Derby behind Odysseus and Schoolyard Dreams, followed up by his second-place finish to 17-1 longshot Line of David in the G1 Arkansas Derby makes him a lukewarm entry on my top 10 list.

In all honesty, my likely Derby favorite will be Endorsement, not only because his breeding says he can run all day, but he can make Shannon Ritter the first woman trainer to ever win the Kentucky Derby—and that’s an accomplishment that’s long over due for all the talented, hard-working women trainers out there.

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Sons and Daughters

On Wednesday, race 3 at Keeneland features some famous siblings trying to break their maiden. Barclay Tagg sends out Ya Gotta Have Soul, a half-brother to Tale of Ekati who, despite a promising win in the Wood Memorial, crushed my 2008 Derby hopes. Thus far, his half-brother doesn’t look like much with two distant finishes in dirt races at Gulfstream going shorter. He should be able to stretch out to 1-1/8 mile, but the question is, can he? Another here is Indianapolis, who’s finished in the money in three of five starts, but not this year; he’s the half-brother of Einstein. I’m not sure exactly how to describe their relationship, but Indianapolis is related to another entrant in this race, Tahoe Lake whose dam Tutto Charm is Einstein’s half-sister. Julien Leparoux rides Ambergris Caye, a full-brother of Perfect Drift, and Shug McGaughey sends out Spanish Art—his mother wasn’t much, but she’s a three-quarter sister to G1 Haskell and Travers winner Coronado’s Quest, and his third dam was a half-sister to the incomparable Ruffian. Still, with all those prestigious bloodlines, the favorite looks to be Elusive Beat.

Race 8 is the G2 Beaumont, and Garrett Gomez is in from California to ride Franny Freud, a narrow second-place finisher to Amen Hallelujah in the G2 Santa Ynez. Still, it begs the question, can she get 7 furlongs? I really like Diva Delite who goes out for her new connections after running her entire career in Florida—but what a career, with 8 wins and 6 placings in 15 starts, including the G3 Florida Oaks last out. No synthetic races, but two turf races with second-place finishes in each. She’s gutsy! The other intriguing entry is Michael Matz-trained Kawiye who’s raced twice in Peru (oh god, shades of Tomcito!)

In baby news, sad to hear that Pepper’s Pride lost her Tiznow foal, but has now been bred to Distorted Humor. Proud Spell recently produced an Indian Charlie filly, and has been bred to Medaglia d’Oro, while (appropriately) on St. Patrick’s Day in Ireland, Rags to Riches birthed a Henrythenavigator colt; she's been bred to Galileo this year. Being born on such a momentous day, this colt needs a special name. How about Palladius, who brought Christianity to Ireland before the legendary St. Patrick? I love Horatio Alger too. In a previous post, Amateurcapper suggested Finn MacCool, while Dana from Green But Game went with Road to Riches, although that was for the Giant’s Causeway foal which ended up being a filly. Maybe with Henrythenavigator we change that to Voyage to Riches? Mymombeatcurlin would be undignified, but I’d love to see her bred to Curlin—Mymombeatmydad.

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Spring Sprung, Thaw Begun

Spring’s arrival with a vengeance this week here in the Allegheny Mountains has begun to thaw my malaise towards horse racing, and life in general, to be honest. In regards to the latter, let’s just say I never knew how stressful it could be to literally see your once beloved workplace turn into an insane asylum, and leave it at that. That situation, in part, has contributed to fewer and more broadly spaced blog posts than in years past over recent months. Also, as my esteemed blogger friend John at The Race is Not Always to the Swift noted last December, the immediacy of Twitter makes it oh-so-easy to jump in there with comments and handicapping rather than sitting down to ponder (and spell-check) a long blog post.

Actually, I have been doing quite a bit of writing on the Kentucky Derby and Oaks prep races for Hello Race Fans! The website officially launched this week, so take a look if you haven’t already. It really is a fantastic endeavor to educate new fans about all aspects of the sport, and the Derby Prep Alert weekly mailing has played an important pre-launch role in garnering beginners’ interest. The archives of race previews and recaps aren’t yet posted on the new site, but take it from me; we’ve done a bang-up job thus far, I must say. Some of my highlights include touting Endorsement pulling an upset in the Sunland Derby (he did), Champagne d’Oro and Seeking the Title in the Fair Grounds Oaks at odds (second and dead-heat for third, respectively), and No Such Word coming into the Honeybee out of a sloppy allowance race that was run much faster late than the dry Martha Washington field one day earlier—and she won.

In my latest Top Ten for the Paulick Derby Index, Eskendereya ranks just ahead of Odysseus and Endorsement, although in truth it is Odysseus who has captured my heart since the departure of Maximus Ruler from the Derby trail. This weekend’s Wood Memorial features Eskendereya and my #9 horse Schoolyard Dreams, along with the (in my opinion) overrated Jackson Bend (could make a nice miler, but no way he gets the classic distances) with Calvin Borel up (another major negative). Gotham winner Awesome Act also makes an appearance, and I think he’ll finally be exposed. Among Paulick’s voters, only myself and Jeremy Plonk don’t have Awesome Act in our top ten—and he has Jackson Bend at #8, so I’m not sure it’s a good thing to be aligned with his way of thinking (just kidding). Regardless, the Wood should be a fantastic race with gorgeous weather.

Off his narrow win in the G2 Rebel at Oaklawn, Lookin At Lucky returns to California for the G1 Santa Anita Derby—ho hum. I just can’t get excited about this horse, sorry. And, yes, it’s the synthetic factor. That’s why he’s #5 on my list, just above Noble’s Promise—and I’m looking for an excuse to drop him lower or off altogether. I’d like to see Sidney’s Candy step up with a big win (loved Candy Ride), or sentimental favorite Caracortado.

In the Illinois Derby, I’m rooting for a Backtalk/Game Ball exacta. I loved Backtalk’s half-sister Bsharpsonata, and the fact that he’s by Smarty Jones is appealing to me. “That” workout, though, disturbs me. You know the one, the six-furlong work in 1:09.60—damn, that faster than his wins in the G3 Bashford Manor and G2 Sanford Stakes last year! Crazy fast. Lightly race Game Ball breaks from the outside 8 post, and maybe his running style isn’t conducive to Hawthorne’s track, although Musket Man did come from off the pace to win last year from post 8 (and he too shipped in from Tampa Bay). What do I like about Game Ball? Well, in addition to his forward-moving performance in his last race, there’s also the fact that not only is his third dam a daughter of Foolish Pleasure, but also he is a direct damline descendent of the great Busher.

Another weekend highlight: the G1 Carter at Aqueduct on Saturday looks like (finally) a real G1 race for older horses, with multiple G1-placed 4-year-olds (what?! not yet retired to stud?! shocking!) Munnings and Musket Man, the latter with Ramon Dominquez up (hey, if Fabulous Strike isn’t running, why not get the best NY jock aboard?). Also entered is Warrior’s Reward who beat Munnings last May, and won his 4-year-old debut last out, as well as 2009 Carter third-place finisher Driven By Success with David Cohen aboard.

And thank god Keeneland and Woodbine open on Friday! Truly, spring has sprung, and the thaw begun.

I would be remiss if I didn’t welcome three excellent additions to our Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance family:

• Rail Runner (Brian Appleton)
• The Saturday Post (Jennifer Wirth)
• The Science of Horse Training (Bill Pressey)

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