When all else fails, return to the basics. I'm in a bit of a wagering slump, having fallen into that trap of betting on horses I'm attached to and want to win, ignoring the fact that they probably aren’t the best horse. Well, except for Joyful Victory in the Honeybee. Anyhow, I decided to take a whack at a race with horses I’m not familiar with and with a handicapping angle I enjoy playing: maidens, some first-time starters, on turf, some for the first time.
In race 7 at Gulfstream—a 3yo+ maiden event going 5 furlongs on turf—Wesley Ward sends out a first-time starter with tons of upside, Magoo. Not only is his sire Bring The Heat throwing first-out winners at 21% (not to mention 26% on turf), but his dam Frysland (who broke her maiden going 9.5 furlongs on turf) has already produced Hockeythehayman who began his career with four straight victories (on all three surfaces) before finishing second in the last year’s Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint. Another interesting entry, Wise Blitz attempts turf for the first time after failing to place in six previous efforts—which will undoubtedly sends him off at extremely long odds. That said, this son of Supah Blitz is out a stakes-placed turf sprint mare Wise And Precious whose full-brother Wise Chief broke his maiden going 5 furlongs on turf (at nearly 46-1). With some early speed and the surface switch, he might be worth a flyer bet. Much more likely, however, is Strictly Society, reunited with Alan Garcia, who has twice just missed at this distance/surface.
Hope you break the slump. I've been on a cold streak as well. Seems like once I see a horse I like in the PPs I become oblivious to other, more likely, winners.
ReplyDeleteHope you cashed a ticket, from the results, it looks like your handicapping was pretty accurate.
ReplyDeleteI'm in the same boat. I've given up betting for the moment, mostly due to my favourite horses being short priced and not fancying anything else. Early in the season is the best time to suss out longshot winners. I'm glad I bet on Sepoy in his first city run where he was an $8.00 shot.
ReplyDeleteAs they say, misery loves company. :-) Thanks, guys! As it was, I didn't cash since I only had 53 cents in my Twinspires account, and was determined not to do the "walk of shame." So, I did a 10 cent super that included winner Gothics Peak (though only for fourth), Strictly Society and Magoo (who did run second and third, which were covered in my bet), but longshot Wise Blitz failed to fire and finished out of it.
ReplyDeleteWhere I really have success is in Australia, especially on wet tracks. Such fantastic place and show prices on real longshots at times.
Here's hoping our luck changes soon :-)