Miscellaneous Monday

The Derby/Oaks future wager is exactly like buying a lottery ticket—nothing more than a wild-ass chance that you’ve gamble on the right horse—and judging by my past future wagers, it’s more like the kiss of death for a horse’s chances of even making it to the starting gate come early May. So, be forewarned if you are considering Dullahan (26-1) and Avie’s Sense (44-1), as I took a flyer on them in Pool 2 (Pool 1 for the Oaks). I’ve already penned my thoughts on Dullahan, but the filly Avie’s Sense came on my radar as an Oaks contender just before her nice runner-up performance in the G3 Rachel Alexandra. Yes, the Josie Carroll-trainee is a bit green, but this daughter of Street Sense is beautifully bred for the Oaks distance, being out of the Lord Avie mare Fly for Avie who not only won the 10-furlong G1 E. P. Taylor over the Woodbine turf, but was also a stakeswinner going 12 furlongs.

Looking at the final odds, I’m now wishing that I’d put something on Battle Hardened (59-1) and Mark Valeski (38-1), as well as gutsy filly Inny Minnie (66-1). Not part of the individual choices, Sagamore Farm’s Millionreasonswhy made a spectacular 2012 debut at Laurel on Saturday, winning the 7-furlong Wide Country Stakes. Winner of the G2 Matron, she finished just a neck back of My Miss Aurelia in last August’s G2 Adirondack—carrying four pounds more than the subsequent Eclipse winner. Her connections indicated post-race that she’s likely for the G3 Comely (April 1) and then the Kentucky Oaks (May 4). A daughter of Grand Slam, Millionreasonswhy is out of the A.P. Indy mare In Secure, but much of her damline performers were/are sprinters so it remains to be seen if she can get the Oaks’ distance.

One that undoubtedly could have is Stephanie’s Kitten, but last week it was announced that she’ll be aimed for June’s Royal Ascot meet and the G1 Coronation Stakes, with a seasonal return planned for the G1 Ashland at Keeneland on April 7. Unlike previous Ramsey horses, this one has a real chance to dominate her European competition—I’m a big fan of hers.

Another blog favorite headed to Royal Ascot (via Dubai) is Aussie mare Ortensia. Once trained by Tony Noonan, Ortensia’s new trainer Paul Messara plans to contest the Al Quoz Sprint on Dubai World Cup day, and then the G1 King’s Stand, avoiding Black Caviar who’ll run in the G1 Diamond Jubilee.

By the way, in case you haven’t been paying attention, the fillies Down Under are rocking this year. Beyond the incomparable Black Caviar, there are also 3-year-olds Mosheen and Silent Achiever, each of whom won G1 open company races this past weekend: the Australian Guineas and New Zealand Derby, respectively. One of the juvenile superstars heading towards the Australian Triple Crown is Samaready, who recently captured the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes (a race, incidentally, where the top three finishers were fillies), but Gai Waterhouse has the excellent Fastnet Rock filly Driefontein aimed that way too. It should be an excellent Sydney autumn carnival.

Speaking of great fillies, on Sunday, Eight Belles’ full-brother Unbridled’s Way made his debut for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin and owners Darley, finishing a distant (but promising) second in a 6-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream. He got a slow start, lollygagged at the rear of the field and then starting picking horses off coming around the final turn—when it appears he twisted himself around and gawked at the grandstand! Still, without getting whipped, he easily passed all but the winner, and should improve next out (maybe with blinkers?) especially if stretched out farther. Interestingly, he’s not gray.

Last August I wrote a piece on a real grinder, Collect Art, a damline descendent of Foolish Pleasure (through his daughter Idyllic’s son Scenic); in a 6-month period he ran 20 times, winning six and finishing out of the money only five times. Well, after being sold at Tattersalls last October, he’s re-emerged in Qatar where he won the G3 Invitation Cup last week.

And speaking of grinders, how exciting is it that 9-year-old Awesome Gem is being aimed at the $1 million Charles Town Classic on April 14? Honestly, his appearance would totally be worth the trip there. Road trip anyone?

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Just What Makes a Derby Contender

Last week my Top 10 list of Kentucky Derby contenders over at the Paulick Report elicited a skeptical comment as to why Dullahan is my top pick when he had been sick and hadn’t posted a workout in over a month (he eventually did work five furlongs on Saturday). I didn’t bother to post a response there as rational explanations inevitably seem to turn into nasty attacks online, but it is a point worth justifying.

When putting together a list of Derby contenders, my overriding consideration is which horse can get the 10-furlong distance. Period. I don’t care if a horse wins a 7-furlong or 1-mile grade 1 event yesterday; I need to know, or at least reasonable expect, a horse can run the classic distance. Only then do I factor in a horse’s previous performances—and they don’t have to be winning ones to merit serious consideration. With that in mind, here are my thoughts on my current Top 10 list:

1. Dullahan (Even the Score-Mining My Own, by Smart Strike) While he may not scream 10-furlong horse, his unraced dam has already produced a Kentucky Derby winner, half brother Mine That Bird. His lightly-raced second dam Aspenelle finished second in the 9-furlong Canadian Oaks. Sure, it’s not a slam-dunk pedigree, but taking into consideration his juvenile races, I think he’s a live chance for trainer Dale Romans even with only a two-race prep. In his maiden effort last June at Churchill he finished third behind G3 Bashford Manor winner Exfactor and recent G3 El Camino Real Derby victor Daddy Nose Best, the latter who has proven to be good quality. After one more dirt race and then switching to turf for his next two outings at Saratoga (including a third-place finish in the G2 With Anticipation), Dullahan finally broke his maiden in October, with an impressive victory in the G1 Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity over Keeneland’s Polytrack. However, the pièce de résistance in my eyes was his performance in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, where closing like a freight train he got up for fourth-place behind Hansen, Union Rags and Creative Cause. To me, it was far more impressive than any other performance in the race, and an indication of great things to come from him. That his connections decided long ago to take a conservative route to the Derby doesn’t bother me any longer, given how delicately three-year-old colts and geldings are handled these days. We’ll next see him on March 11 in the grassy G3 Palm Beach over nine furlongs, and then at Keeneland for the G1 Blue Grass Stakes—not exactly a Derby winner-producing race lately, but not one to be discounted given that last year’s winner Brilliant Speed went on to finish third in the G1 Belmont Stakes, and before that runner-up Paddy O’Prado subsequently ran third in the Derby behind Super Saver and Ice Box. Hey, we no longer live in the age of Seattle Slew, Affirmed or Spectacular Bid, let alone Real Quiet, Victory Gallop or Smarty Jones. Beggars can’t be choosy, and Derby winners just aren’t that predictable to select these days. Call this a gut selection.
2. Algorithms (Bernardini-Ava Knowsthecode, by Cryptoclearance) Lightly-raced? Hell yes. Beat nothing in his maiden effort last June or in his final juvenile race at Gulfstream in December, but that G3 Holy Bull win over 2-year-old champion Hansen was impressive (stumble or no stumble). His G3-placed dam won at 8.5 furlongs, and has already produced G2 winner Keyed Entry (Honour and Glory) who finished third behind Bob and John and Jazil in the G1 Wood Memorial. She’s also birthed G3 miler Successful Mission (Successful Appeal) and G1-placed sprinter Justin Phillip (First Samurai), so I’m thinking Bernardini could lengthen him out. Another good sign: his warhorse second dam Ava Romance was a stakeswinner at 10-furlongs—and her sire Avatar won the 12-furlong G1 Belmont Stakes. Plus, I just love Cryptoclearance! Algorithms’ next start: Sunday’s G2 Fountain of Youth.
3. Battle Hardened (Giant’s Causeway-Jen’s Fashion, by Northern Fashion) Just nosed out going nine furlongs at Gulfstream on New Year' Eve, this Eddie Kenneally-trainee crushed the 8.5-furlong G3 Sam F. Davis last out, and in impressive enough fashion for me to consider him a serious Derby horse. His sire’s predilection for stamina is well-documented; his damline is equally noteworthy given that his damsire Northern Fashion was G3-placed in France going 12 furlongs. His juvenile stakes-winning dam Jen’s Fashion has also produced a half-brother Colonial Colony (Pleasant Colony) won the 9-furlong G1 Stephen Foster.
4. Union Rags (Dixie Union-Tempo, by Gone West) Honestly, I’m not totally sold on his Derby chances, but giving respect to his juvenile achievements he makes the list. His full brother Geefour toiled mostly in the claiming ranks as a sprinter, as did most of his siblings. Yet, his half sister Tempo West has produced 10-furlong European winners Vertiformer (Dynaformer) and War Power (Pulpit); the latter once defeated G1 Champion Stakes victor Cirrus Des Aigles. His second dam Terpsichorist won the 12-furlong G3 Long Island Handicap, so I suppose the stamina could be there…we’ll see how good he is on Sunday when Julien Leparoux climbs aboard him for the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes.
5. Alpha (Bernardini-Munnaya, by Nijinsky) Runner-up behind Union Rags in the G1 Champagne last fall, he failed to impressive in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. However, he’s come back strong this year, winning the Count Fleet and the G3 Withers. His Nijinsky (!) dam won the 11.5-furlong English Oaks Trial, and she’s produced some nice stakes-quality horses—Dreamalong Lavender Sky, Mystic Melody, and Numaany—and five winners at or beyond 10 furlongs. This is also the family of champion Kamar (Key to the Mint) who produced multiple G1-winner Gorgeous, G1 Kentucky Oaks victress Seaside Attraction (dam of G1 Florida Derby winner Cape Town and champion juvenile filly Golden Attraction), and Queen’s Plate victor Key to the Moon.
6. Creative Cause (Giant’s Causeway-Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer) I’m not seriously considering a California-based horse a likely Derby winner, but Creative Cause tops my list of West Coast horses that could do well, especially after his even third-place effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. His recent third-place finish in the 7-furlong G2 San Vicente hardly disappointed given how short it was, and disappointing with only four entrants. His G1 Apple Blossom-winning dam Dream of Summer wasn’t precocious, breaking her maiden first-out at age 4, but she proved to be one tough cookie, twice just missing in the 9-furlong G1 Santa Margarita and winning 10 of 20 starts, failing to hit the board only 3 times. Next for him: possibly March 17’s G2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn.
7. Out of Bounds (Discreet Cat-Unbridled Elaine, by Unbridled’s Song) Last out, he won the 1-mile G3 Sham Stakes over Secret Circle, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint winner who this week captured the faster heat of the G3 Southwest Stakes. His damline is tremendously impressive, given his dam Unbridled Elaine not only won the G1 Breeders’ Cup Distaff over the tremendous mare Spain, but she also ran a game second to Macho Uno in the 9-furlong G3 Pennsylvania Derby. She’s already produced (by Forestry) the G2 winner Etched who won multiple times at nine furlongs so his miler sire Discreet Cat isn’t necessarily a hindrance. Unbridled Elaine’s half sister Glitter Woman, winner of the G1 Ashland, is the dam of 10-furlong G1 Suburban victor Political Force (by Unbridled’s Song), while another half sister Gwenjinsky birthed multiple G2 victress Lead Story.
8. Discreet Dancer (Discreet Cat-West Side Dancer, by Gone West) While he has yet to race beyond one mile, this Todd Pletcher trainee has just dominated his competition thus far. Although he missed a recent workout due to fever, he’s on schedule to start in Sunday’s G2 Fountain of Youth along with stablemate Algorithms. I’m absolutely concerned about his distance limitations; his dam’s other runner Travelin Man (Trippi) won the 7-furlong G2 Swale last year and Pletcher kept him in sprints. There’s nothing to think he’ll get the Derby distance, so I expect him to drop off my list soon, probably after this weekend.
9. El Padrino (Pulpit-Enchanted Rock, by Giant’s Causeway) Honestly, he should be ranked ahead of stablemate Discreet Dancer—and probably will after this weekend’s G2 Risen Star. His recent first-level allowance race win over 8.5 furlongs was beautifully done, and his breeding strong indicates he wants longer. His G1-winning second dam Chic Shirine also produced the 10-furlong G2 Ladies Handicap winner Tara Roma (dam of 9-furlong G1 Go For Wand victress Serra Lake). This is also the family of G1 Haskell runner-up Coal Play, G2 Lake Placid victress Hungry Island, 11-furlong French G1-placed Baraan, and multiple 12-furlong G1-placed Al Khali.
10. Russian Greek (Giant’s Causeway-Sand Dollar, by Grindstone) Seriously, look at that pedigree. It screams stamina. His dam’s half brother, Breeders’ Cup Classic victor Cat Thief, finished less than a length behind Charismatic and Menifee in the 1999 Kentucky Derby. His second dam Train Robbery ran second in the 10-furlong G2 Delaware Handicap, while his third dam Track Robbery won multiple times at nine furlongs, including the G1 Vanity, Apple Blossom and Spinster. Russian Greek broke his maiden at first-ask on dirt at Santa Rosa, but since then has only raced over the Tapeta track at Golden Gate, winning the 8.5 furlong California Derby before disappointing last weekend in the 9-furlong G3 El Camino Real Derby. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer doesn’t have plans for his next race yet, but, boy, I’d like to see him on dirt—maybe in the $800k G3 Sunland Derby on March 25?

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Derby Preps and Maiden Races on Saturday

As January has passed into February, it’s time to hunker down and get serious—about Kentucky Derby contenders, naturally. With three preps on Saturday (not to mention a couple interesting maiden races), I’m just about fully engaged with horse racing again. If you haven’t done so already, please sign up for Derby Prep Alert at Hello Race Fans!—not only are we previewing all the major Derby and Oaks races, but you can get FREE past performances for the races, courtesy of Brisnet.com. Here are my thoughts on Saturday’s races:

Santa Anita, Race 1:

Making his debut, Stratify (A.P. Indy) is the first foal out of G2 Honorable Miss victress Burmilla, who crushed her maiden effort going six furlongs—not to mention her multiple G1-placed dam Nannerl won first-up. As per Darley initiative, he won’t run on Lasix, and breaking from the rail doesn’t appear advantageous, so I’ll take a pass this time on him. Bob Baffert sends out Mile High Magic (Roman Ruler) who’s posted blazing works in advance of this start—his unraced dam is out of champion Hall of Fame mare Silverbulletday. Bet on him taking serious money with Martin Garcia aboard. Likely for a price consider Broker Brett (More Than Ready); as any good Distorted Humor filly should, his dam Queen of Green won at first-asking, and he comes from a strong performing family, including G2 turf winner Turnofthecentury who smashed a large field going 8.5 furlong on dirt in his maiden effort—winning by nearly 10 lengths.

Aqueduct, Race 9 (G3 Withers):

Alpha (Bernardini) is among my Top Ten Derby contenders at this point, and off his dominating Count Fleet victory last out, the Withers appears to be at his mercy. If I had to choose an upset chance, it would be Tiger Walk (Tale of the Cat), an impressive allowance winner his first time on dirt. His unraced dam’s half brother Supremo won the G2 Norfolk—not to mention his unraced second dam is a half sister to Dynaformer. From the rail, Hakama (First Samurai) should also be in the exotics; he broke his maiden in impressive style over this track, and comes from an impressive Claiborne Farms family that includes G3 Louisiana Derby runner-up Stop Watch and G3 off-turf Transylvania winner Boss Lafitte.

Gulfstream, Race 9:

If any maiden race this weekend could produce a Classic winner, this 9-furlong dirt event would be it. A likely contender is Battle Hardened (Giant’s Causeway) who just missed at this distance last out—he’s a half brother to G1 Stephen Foster winner Colonial Colony. Finishing just behind Battle Hardened in that December 31 race, Suns Out Guns Out (Empire Maker) also should be in the exotics; his dam is a full sister to G1-placed router Tenpins. Tiz Yankee (Tiznow) has the damline breeding as well—his second dam, G1 Vanity winner Private Persuasion is a full sister to Torchera, dam of G1 Belmont winner Da’Tara. Mark Casse sends out a dynamic duo that still appear distance-challenged: Wine Police’s half brother Moon Traveler (Malibu Moon) and Dynamical (Hard Spun) whose half sister is G1 Matron runner-up Featherbed. Todd Pletcher entry Dixie Dice (Dixie Union) is closely related to G1 Travers runner-up Grasshopper, which is probably why he brought $400k as a yearling. For price, Awaited (Unbridled’s Song) is a huge upset chance here. Forget that Saratoga race—this full brother to G1 Belmont runner-up Dunkirk has been working extremely well in advance of this 2012 debut, and with blinkers on looks to make his G1 Kentucky Oaks-winning dam Secret Status proud.

Tampa Bay, Race 11 (G3 Sam F. Davis):

Everywhere he runs these days, Todd Pletcher has a hot hand, but I’m not sold on Ecabroni (Smoke Glacken) here. State of Play (War Front) should make the transition from turf to dirt with ease, while Gulfstream Park Derby winner Reveron (Songandaprayer) hopes to transfer his good form to Tampa Bay. Given his previous form here, Prospective (Malibu Moon) could be an underlay, and if he runs here instead of at Gulfstream, I’m all in on Battle Hardened (Giant’s Causeway).

Santa Anita, Race 6 (G2 Robert B. Lewis):

With Liaison (Indian Charlie) and Sky Kingdom (Empire Maker), Bob Baffert is doubly-blessed in this race—the latter is just behind Alpha on my Top Ten Derby list. Rousing Sermon (Lucky Pulpit) has twice just missed against Liaison, and looks to be training well in advance of this start. That said, I’m thrilled to see Isn’t He Clever (Smarty Jones) shipping in from Sunland to take on the big boys, as he’s definitely got classy breeding—his dam is a full sister to multiple G1-placed Flag Down. For a price, Myung Kwon Cho’s Groovin’ Solo (Bob and John) could be an upset for the exotics; his half brother Street Hero won the G1 Norfolk, while another half brother Premier Pegasus won last year’s G2 San Felipe.

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Baby Names 2012

It’s that time again! With the arrival of 2012’s first foals—specifically those by first-year sires—comes our annual Baby Names game. No prizes, just the pure pleasure—and challenge—of devising witty, profound or just plain goofy names for the newborns. I’ve included a little more pedigree information than in years past, plus clickable links of both sire and dam in case you want to explore their progeny and/or siblings in more detail. Also, you can check The Jockey Club Registry to see if the name is available. Feel free to include your ideas in the comments’ section; I promise to post any and all suggestions.

January 7—Filly, by Desert Party out of Spikes, by Dixie Union out of the Double Zeus mare Safe at the Plate

• Going along with the damline baseball theme, how about Diamondback, or Stealin’ Home?

January 9—Filly, by Concord Point out of My Brooklynne Rose, by Indian Charlie out of the Honour and Glory mare Kimberly Sue

• Umm, a sire named for a lighthouse in Havre de Grace, MD…this one’s tough, with damline names all over the place. Sticking with the water theme, I’m leaning towards naming her after the Rhine siren Lorelei, a beautiful name (plus I totally love the Pogues’ song).

January 11—Filly, by The Pamplemousse out of Broke the Slump, by Slewpy out of the Falstaff mare Code It Nikki

• Tenuously clinging to the baseball metaphor, I was thinking Grapefruit League, but it’s taken. But just plain Grapefruit isn’t…or maybe Sustained Pressure?

January 13—Colt, by Blame out of Promptly, by Lead on Time out of the Final Straw mare Ghariba

• I suppose Promptly Blame is too damn easy…but it’s available! How about Without Reproach?

January 13—Filly, by Temple City out of Goes Around, by Wild Again out of the Nijinsky mare Lady Becker

• I’m such an architecture geek; my first thought was Circumambulate. How about What Goes Around?

January 14—Filly, by Super Saver out of Yield to Faith, by High Yield out of the Sir Ivor mare Royal Solution

• Faith Saver might be appropriate, but I’m thinking Extreme Couponer is timely and right on.

January 16—Filly, by Lookin At Lucky out of Awesome, by Storm Cat out of the Key to the Mint mare Pure Profit

• Too easy: Lookin’ Awesome or Awesome Lucky. Nothing less is expected from a filly whose dam is a half sister to the likes of Inside Information and Educated Risk.

January 17—Colt, by Quality Road out of Dorm Fever, by Stormin Fever out of the Pleasant Colony mare Dorm

• Road Trip! Damn, already taken. Colony Road? Bit of a stretch. Being from Pennsylvania, I’d go with Lincoln Highway.

January 20—Colt, by Munnings out of Heaven’s Grace, by Untuttable out of the Septieme Ciel mare Heaven’s Gate

• Not in the least bit original, how about Munnings’ Grace? Not really appropriate for a colt though, I suppose. How about another equine artist name, like Sartorius (what a great sounding, strong name!), or, in honor of Peb, Bellocq?

EDITED TO ADD: Well, how could we not include a name for the new colt, born on January 22, to champion Rachel Alexandra, by Curlin? He's got his mother's look, with a beautiful star! Congratulations to her connections.

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Eclipse Award Predictions and Wistful Thoughts

After what was in many ways an unsatisfying year for American horse racing, I find myself strangely ambivalent about tonight’s Eclipse Awards show—but will certainly watch them online thanks to the Daily Racing Form beginning at 8:00 p.m. Eastern. Unlike the previous two years, there’s not the passion…nay, rabid fervor…behind who is named Horse of the Year, which definitely takes a little fun out of the whole event. That said, I’d be a little disappointed if Havre de Grace doesn’t win, making it three consecutive years when the best horse in America is of the feminine persuasion. Her competition (Caleb's Posse and Acclamation) aren't without fault, so it's a relatively safe bet that she will win. Here are some final thoughts and predictions on what we’ll see tonight:

2-year-old Male:

Not surprisingly, the first third finishers in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Creative Cause, Union Rags, and Hansen) are the finalists, and history suggests Hansen will win. Does that mean he, or either of the other two for that matter, will win the Kentucky Derby? Doubtful. Although it seems trainer Dale Romans’ plans are for a light prep—the 9-furlong G3 Palm Beach on turf and the 9-furlong G1 Blue Grass on Polytrack—Dullahan is my early Derby pick. To my eyes, this half-brother to Mine That Bird was closing best in the BC Juvenile, and has already proven he’s a distance runner.

2-year-old Female:

Because we are a country unnaturally preoccupied with dirt racing, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner My Miss Aurelia will win this award over her BC runner-up Grace Hall, but for my money Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner Stephanie’s Kitten will be the one to watch this year—her planned 2012 debut is in the Florida Oaks on February 4.

3-year-old Male:

In such an inconsistent year, it’s very difficult to find a clear winner here. The simple choice is Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom, but not for me. Seriously, if you weren’t willing to consider Mine That Bird a winner after his much-better placings in the Triple Crown races, why Animal Kingdom who was done after the Belmont Stakes? Preakness winner Shackleford is a gutsy horse that never stopped trying, but he only won one race all year, defeated by the hard-charging Caleb’s Posse in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. Based on that race, plus his win in the G1 King’s Bishop, Caleb’s Posse (of the three) looks to be the best choice—but he really isn’t winning in the highest level “classic distance” races. In all honesty, I’m floored that Ruler On Ice isn’t among the contenders, let alone the deserving winner! Under the most unlikely of circumstances, he captured the G1 Belmont Stakes, defeating both Shackleford and Animal Kingdom (and don’t give me that lame excuse about Animal Kingdom being impeded early—bull!). Yes, Shackleford beat him in the G1 Haskell, although Ruler On Ice was closing best of all, but the tables were reversed in the G1 Travers. Ruler On Ice put in a very credible second in the G2 Pennsylvania Derby, and then outshined all his fellow 3-year-olds in running third in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. As a racehorse whose connections actually ran him (including, unsuccessfully, in the G1 Clark after the Classic), Ruler On Ice is to me the default champion 3-year-old.Too bad the voters didn't see it that way.

3-year-old Female:

This is a category that lost too many promising fillies to injury (especially St. John’s River) or just flat out poor choices, but the three finalists are top-notch. With her Breeders’ Cup victory, Royal Delta wins, but It’s Tricky and Plum Pretty did terrific jobs this year.

Older Male:

A real conundrum here, with the Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Drosselmeyer not even nominated—and I think that’s a shame. No, he wasn’t a threat to subsequent Breeders’ Cup Marathon winner Birdrun in the G2 Brooklyn Handicap—but how many of these “quality” older males even attempted 12 furlongs this year? His connections opted for turf in the G1 Sword Dancer (admittedly a mistake), but his strong closing in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup and the BC Classic win should have put him in the running, especially in such an overall weak year. That said, the finalists are Game On Dude, Tizway and Acclamation, the latter whom is being talked about as the likely winner—although probably only as a default because he won’t win in the other category in which he is nominated, Male Turf. I’ve never been a fan of Tizway (although he won the G1 Met Mile and G1 Whitney this year), so I guess of the three I wish Game On Dude got serious consideration. All three finalists share one race—the G3 Charles Town Classic—and Game On Dude finished ahead of the other two carrying far much weight (123 lbs, to Tizway’s 117, and Acclamation’s 114). I like that Game On Dude travelled—after winning the G1 Santa Anita Handicap, he visited West Virginia and Texas, then back in Cali captured the G1 Goodwood before just missing in the Breeders’ Cup Classic back in Kentucky. That BC Classic performance is what puts him over the top in my estimation.

Older Female:

Havre de Grace, hands down. That said, if Blind Luck had stayed healthy...oh, what an autumn it would have been! The G2 Delaware Handicap was the best damn race of the year, bar none! Awesome Maria is a nice (but distant) third-place vote getter, in my estimation.

Male Turf:

Just because you run in and win only one race in America—and it happens to be the Breeders’ Cup Turf—you don’t deserve to win an Eclipse. If St. Nicholas Abbey wins, it is just one more slap in the face to logic and reason, and a crystal-clear example of why there should be exact guidelines (i.e. a set number of races) for being awarded an Eclipse—and one race isn’t it. Cape Blanco should win, having captured three G1 races in the U.S.—the Man o’War, Arlington Million, and Joe Hirsch Turf Classic. Amazing given the propensity for former Dubai World Cup competitors to flop when continuing to race in the same year. There’s going to be a lot of West Coast votes for Acclamation with his three straight G1 victories, yet if you can’t travel successfully outside the state of California, you won’t get many votes from hard-core horse people.

Female Turf:

Even before the three finalists were announced I only had one mare in mind—Stacelita. When you take on male competitors like she did in the G1 United Nations, and then come back to win the G1 Beverly D and G1 Flower Bowl—arguably the two biggest mare turf races in America—you deserve this award. Perfect Shirl’s Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf win was—I’ll say it—a fluke, and the only decent race she ran all year against the “best” female competition (and, let’s be honest, that’s not saying much). Since Stacelita easily defeated Dubawi Heights in the Beverly D, it’s a no-brainer who should win.

Male Sprinter:

As the Breeders’ Cup Sprint champion, Amazombie will be the unimaginative selection, but Caleb’s Posse should give him a run for his money. How bad is the dirt sprint division? The third finalist is Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner Regally Ready who’s already been well-beaten to start this year.

Female Sprinter:

This is a wacky division because Hilda’s Passion will likely win over another lightly-race filly Sassy Image—leaving the much more heavily-raced Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint winner Musical Romance in third-place. That really sucks because, as a fan and an advocate for actually running horses instead of keeping them in the barn and parading them out only on special occasions, Musical Romance and her connections deserve this award.

Trainer:

Probably based solely on the Breeders’ Cup performances of Royal Delta and Drosselmeyer, Bill Mott should win this award, defeating the well-coiffured juggernaut that is Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert. Still, H. Graham Motion should have gotten more consideration by voters if, for no other reason other than being one of the “good-guys” in the sport—oh, and winning the Kentucky Derby with a grass horse.

Jockey:

Ramon Dominguez, Javier Castellano and John Velazquez are three of my favorite “money” jocks, but rather unimaginatively I expect Ramon Dominguez to win, as the top earner and with the best win/WPS percentages. Still, I would have replaced Castellano with Joel Rosario in this conversation, and maybe even Rafael Bejarano instead of John Velazquez (despite his Derby win)—a serious East Coast bias exists in this category, I’m sorry to say.

Breeder:

Every time you turned around, another Kenneth & Sarah Ramsey homebred—many sired by Kitten’s Joy—triumphantly crossed the finish line in 2011. Hands-down winners to me over Brereton Jones and Frank Stronach’s Adena Springs.

Owner:

Again, to me Kenneth & Sarah Ramsey rule, although strictly based on numbers Midwest Thoroughbreds will probably win. And while Team Valor did have the Kentucky Derby winner, Maggi Moss should have been in the final three—her 495 starters won 34% of the time, and finished in the money 68%! That is a brilliant record.

Enjoy the show!

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Random Thoughts on Pedigree Handicapping for Saturday

Slowly but surely I’m emerging from my post-holiday blahs—the ferocious return of winter on Friday made sitting in front of the computer, analyzing Saturday’s races, preferably to…well, cleaning the house. Here are a few races and horses that caught my attention, particularly due to their pedigrees:

Aqueduct 2 (3yo MSW 6f)

While Rockin Boogie is a very likely winner in his third start, a couple first-time Darley starters of interest. The Distorted Humor homebred colt Original Art is out of a champion Argentinean filly La Galerie (but she hasn’t produced much), while Le Bernardin’s dam La Rosa, winner of the G2 Demoiselle, has already produced G3 Sabin winner Taittinger Rose. Also expect more from Hard Spun gelding Hardened Wildcat—his G1 Matron runner-up dam Wild Snitch has also produced the very nice G3 Bay Shore runner-up Vengeful Wildcat.

Update: Hardened Wildcat ($9.50 win) pulled clear of Rockin Boogie for the win; the Darley duo finished fourth and fifth—without Lasix.

Gulfstream 3 (3yo MSW 7f)

Chad Brown sends out first-time starter Grouse whose dam is a half sister to promising G1-placed Stopshoppingmaria; for Kiaran McLaughlin, the Invasor colt Al Aqsa is also interesting—his G3-placed dam is a half sister to G2 Alcibiades runner-up Galloping Gal, dam of G1 Cash Call Futurity victor Liaison. Other first-time starters: Spring Hill Farm (whose G1-placed dam Colonial Minstrel is a half sister to the dam of G2 Jim Dandy winner A Little Warm) and Bird Tale, a Birdstone colt related to G2 Jefferson Cup victor Inca King. A trainer switch for The Great Gonzo—his half sister is the dam of G1 Kentucky Derby runner-up Eight Belles.

Update: Spring Hill Farm ($3.40 win) wired the field, finishing over 6 lengths ahead of Quick Wit, with first-time starter Grouse ($3.60 place) another 6 lengths back. Al Aqsa (no Lasix) had a very poor start, finishing sixth, followed by Bird Tale and The Great Gonzo.

Laurel 6 (3yo fillies MSW 8f)

Back from England where her juvenile campaign was less than stellar, Proud Pearl makes her dirt debut for Graham Motion—she’s a full sister to the terrific champion Proud Spell. Not sure cutting back will make a difference, but the thus-far-disappointing Hard Spun filly Boudicca finally gets Lasix which may make her a winner.

Update: Proud Pearl ($10.60 win) did her big sister proud, winning over Theatricality; Boudicca faded fast to finish sixth.

Aqueduct 7 (Ruthless Stakes)

While Ramon Dominguez may have chosen G3 Tempted runner-up Perennial Song as his ride, Better Lucky has the pedigree—her second dam is G1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint champion Desert Stormer, while her dam Sahara Gold captured the G2 Beaumont. So too does Well Kept whose second dam is another Breeders’ Cup Sprint champion, Safely Kept, and Corderosa whose second dam is G1 Humana Distaff victress Celtic Melody. This looks to be a nice sprint race.

Update: Overwhelming favorite Agave Kiss ran to form, crushing runner-up Well Kept ($6.30 place) who was over a length better than Corderosa ($3.80 show). Better Lucky (again, running without Lasix) finished fifth while Perennial Song was never involved, finishing last.

Gulfstream 7 (3yo MSW 7f)

Pletcher’s Ecabroni is the likely post-time favorite, but I’m curious to see the debut of Arm Force, full brother to G1 Dubai World Cup victor Well Armed. None of his siblings have been precocious, but all five that raced are winners including G1-placed Helsinki and G3 Railbird winner Witty. Nice workouts for Eoin Harty, but probably not this time. The other first-time starter Hunter Jak is a half brother to G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Haynesfield. However, based on his name alone, I like Old Time Hockey; not only is he by Foolish Pleasure descendent Smarty Jones, but also his dam is a half sister to Scat Daddy. No, his maiden race was not a strong one, and he probably wants longer, but I’m rooting for him.

Update: Ecabroni wired the field (as expected), while Old Time Hockey ($3.40 show) managed third after a less-than-stellar start, and Hunter Jak (87-1!) got up over Arm Force for fourth.

Turfway 7 (3yo fillies MSW 6f)

First-time starter In Lingerie certainly has the pedigree, with her second dam being G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies champion Phone Chatter (this is also the family of G1 Norfolk winner Dixie Chatter); this Empire Maker filly also has a sharp workout leading into this race. Being out of the G3 winner Cat Chat, what feline lover wouldn’t play In Lingerie with Chaotic Cat and The Cat for the trifecta?

Update: The worst-kept secret, In Lingerie ($6.20) wired the field as odds-on favorite. However, Chaotic Cat only managed fourth, while The Cat was dead-last.

Fair Grounds 9 (Marie G. Krantz Memorial H.)

While Cherokee Queen, Pleasantly Blessed and A She's Adorable will likely battle it out again for the victory, I’m intrigued by the trainer switch for Countess Lemonade—and would be pleased as punch if former claimer Juanita hangs on for the win.

Update: Cherokee Queen ($6.20 win) strode past Juanita ($6.20 place) late for the win, with Pleasantly Blessed ($2.60 show) third.

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