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Friday, September 5, 2008

Australia Tonight (Live Blogging)

Unfortunately, Randwick cancelled their card due to track conditions, so only Flemington left to bet on this evening. Here’s some quick and ugly picks:

Race 1: I was going to go with #10 Noble Samurai, but the track downgrade from Dead to Slow eliminates him (plus his regular jock Vlad Duric is off his mounts today, and Peter Mertens hadn’t ridden him before). Instead, let’s go with #7 Bolle who loves the wet and, better yet, gets top jock Damien Oliver up (and three pounds off). [edited: now they're saying it is actually the opposite, Dead but moving towards Good, so I'm taking another look at Noble Samurai...]

If you're out there, toss in your comments!

Race 2: #13 Romneya gets a tough outside post position, but comes in off a second-place finish where she beat Augusta Proud. She drops eight pounds and loves the wet [and dry]. Love fillies against 3-year-old colts and geldings! However, given Light Vision's easy win in the first, you have got to respect Lord Tavistock who crushed Light Vision (by 6 lengths) in a barrier trial at the beginning of August, and finished second to Fernandina last out. Nice post too (and short odds).

Damn, Romneya lost by a neck...to Lord Tavistock. Urgh!

Race 3: I really like #9 Emma Princess, though her last campaign was disappointing. She did win last out, and has good past form against Hips Don't Lie. Given Romneya's race, #8 Tobouggie Woogie looks to be an interesting play.

Result: Marveen (12-1), the top weight, was marvelous on the straight-away to win, but my $2 show bet on Tobouggie Woogie (15-1) should pay decent since the co-favorite came in second, at 4-1. $8.40 to be precise.

Race 4: Ah, Viewed is back! But no Craig Williams who's opted for David Hayes' Largo Lad. I doubt Stavka can get 7f. Jungle Ruler is getting some money based on his last out vs. Weekend Hussler and Light Fantastic. Still he's never won here in 4 tries. I'm going for Playwright. $1 tri-box 3-7-13.

Argh, Stavka makes me a liar, winning a photo to The Fuzz, with Jungle Ruler third.

Race 5: The formline here runs right through #6 Princess Gisella, #2 Mimi Lebrock and #1 Devil Moon. Princesss Gisella appears to be a wet-tracker, though, so I'm tossing her. Mimi looks to have the better recent form. I'm looking for value. I like Dane Julia, but hate her post position. I might have to toss something on Blazonry--after my dog, Blaze :)

Result: Mimi Lebrock over Bellini Rose, and Devil Moon hung on for third. My bet on Dane Julia failed, as she finished fourth. Too bad...terrible post on the far outside.

Getting closer to the big race....

Race 6: How can one not love #4 Augusta Proud? She HATED the heavy going in the G1 Golden Slipper vs. Sebring, but has yet to lose a race on a good track. Taking on the boys again here, you have got to include her in the exotics. Some money coming for Aichi, but he's a wet tracker. David Hayes sends out Nicconi with Craig Williams up, but he didn't beat much first out. I'm liking Fury much better, with Newitt staying on him for Peter Moody. Carnero is possible, but last out in March and no first-up wins. Dunn sticking with Time Thief makes me go "hmmm".

Result: Well, Aichi isn't just a wet tracker...he won by a bob over Time Thief. Nicconi got third, and Augusta Proud faded badly at the end. My only win here is a place bet on Time Thief.

Race 7: The Makybe Diva Stakes. Weekend Hussler vs. Light Fantastic. Ding, ding, ding. Round 2. Then again, there are the two mares...I love Riva San, but not first up and without a little give to the turf. Zarita, on the other hand, is a real threat second up, but would have loved a softer turf. It really does, I think, come down to the Hussler and the undefeated gray. And, until he loses, I'm going to trip the Light Fantastic...

and he's not undefeated any longer....Great, great race by Weekend Hussler! And thank you Zarita! I put a WPS on her, so her second place finish (at 12-1) will pay nicely. Unfortunately, Weekend Hussler didn't get any money, as 60-1 Littorio got up for third ahead of him.

Now, I defy anyone to say that fillies and mares can't run competitively with the big boys. Look at Zarita, finishing second to Weekend Hussler and ahead of Light Fantastic!

Race 8: Given Stavka's strong win earlier, Grand Duels looks very good here, especially with his Weekend Hussler form. I'm going for Gabbidon for a piece, as well as Marching.

Flemington's no-turn, straightaway 6f track is so odd. Some days the field splits into two and each runs against opposing rails. Tonight the entire field shifted to the outside, clustered against one another. Bon Hoffa was the 22-1winner, a complete surprise given his horrible recent form. Grand Duels finished second, with 12-1 Orange County getting third.

I know there's one more race, but I'm pooped. Thanks to my amenable partner-in-live-blogging for an enjoyable evening!

42 comments:

Winston...not really said...

Dead to slow is a downgrade?

Outstanding, no wonder we have a hard time bringing in new fans.

Now if only Tessitore could explain the N1xyOC.

Valerie said...

Their "Dead" is actually our Yielding. Go figure! But their pp's NEVER call it Dead.

Winston...not really said...

In the PP's after Rtime, what is St, S, 8m, 12, Trn?

Race 2B Flemington

Valerie said...

I think what you're seeing is the position they were in at those points in the race. Are you looking at the ones from Twinspires?

Winston...not really said...

No. Don't have an account.
Looking at the Australian ones you linked. I think it's the points of call but in meters. Is that right?

Valerie said...

Yes, meters.

See if this link works for you:

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisrep_enc.cgi/aub0905p.pdf?wagerid=2800&vlen=44&vouch=F25259D04E8E943202E59533CB3F921233CCB8D187129A7EBF8237BBF4E71145A52C5754C0CF1EDB85BE6E1F

Winston...not really said...

No, thank you though.

This exercise is academic anyway. HRTV is not carrying the Australian races for some reason. They usually do. Wankers.

I probably should join the new millennium and get a Twinspires account but I am leery of handing out my SSN. Do you find it secure?

Valerie said...

Oh, but you can watch the live video of them here: http://www.australianracing.com/pages/members/31.php

Free sign-up. You don't have to bet through them. The video feed is excellent (it's under the link "Members")

I love Twinspires, and have had no problems with security (knock on wood).

If you send me your email, I can email the downloaded file for Flemington. Their pp's are much easier to read than the ones you're looking at now :)

Winston...not really said...

Great, thank you.
I will send it to your Yahoo account from my REAL address.

Valerie said...

Got it?

Winston...not really said...

Yes. Thanks.

I can't watch the races live though. Grrr. The replays I can get no problem...oh well.

Valerie said...

If you sign up, you should be able to view the live video feed. They do replay the race too in between races, so maybe that's what you are seeing?

Winston...not really said...

I signed up but for some reason I am not getting the live feed at all.
I can go to the replay tab and watch the races there.

Winston...not really said...

I know you have been beside yourself worrying about this. I managed to get the thing working. Apparently Windows media player needs to be the default player to run this feed...I guess.

Thanks for the help tonight, I now have another reason to lose sleep...

Valerie said...

Hang on for race 7. Two of the best horses in the world, Weekend Hussler and Light Fantastic running.

Winston...not really said...

We'll see. Up since 5.

Valerie said...

Geezer! :) LOL

It's Friday night :)

Winston...not really said...

Oh, it's on now;)

Winston...not really said...

Under the lifetime stats...what is the 1lay, 2lay?

And do they only show total starts-first-second?

Valerie said...

Actually, it's total starts, wins and placings (seconds or thirds). 1Lay and 2Lay is their record first-up off a layoff and second off a layoff. Barrier trials are organized workouts. They don't post workouts like we do here in the U.S.

The best trainers at this track are D(avid)A Hayes, D L(ee) Freedman, R(ichard) W Smerdon, and J B(art) Cummings.

Winston...not really said...

Thanks.

I would be all over Devil Moon at 5-1.

Valerie said...

Check out #4 Augusta Proud, the only filly in race 6. Also love #7 Fury on the dry track (didn't look to care for the wet). Love name because it reminds me of the tv show that used to be on when I was a kid.

Winston...not really said...

I was just going to ask about her.

Her lifetime record shows 8-6-1 but her 12m record shows 8-6-7. WTF is that?

Valerie said...

OK, I know it's stupid, but their 12 month record includes wps in the third number. So, she's run 8 times, 7 times in the money including 6 of those being wins.

Silly Aussies...

Winston...not really said...

Ah.

And I thought the 12m was their 1200meter record...doh.

I like Time Thief at 8-1.

Valerie said...

You are GOOD! Time Thief is an excellent possibility because Dunn is Freedman's top rider, and he's jumping off the #2 horse Exceedingly Good whose already a G3 winner.

Winston...not really said...

Augusta Proud looks GOOD.

Valerie said...

Don't know what happened to her there at the end, but we were right on about Time Thief! Happy dance :)

Winston...not really said...

Nice.

Do they not do entries in Australia?

Winston...not really said...

I thought you had something a week ago on Weekend Hussler. Wheeling right back...wow.

Valerie said...

No, they never run coupled. You did see Time Thief is a Darley horse (Sheik Mohammed)...

They run back to back to back like this all the time. It's just now spring there so their coming off the winter break. All their horses' birthdays are August 1, so these 4-year-olds were 3-year-old a month ago.

Winston...not really said...

Why, on some of the final place margins do they have a superscript for beaten lengths and on others they don't?

Valerie said...

The ones without superscript I take it to mean it was closer than a length victory (nose, head, neck, et al).

So, who you liking here?

Winston...not really said...

As much as I would like to stab at something here-Master O'reilly if he weren't coming off a layoff, I have to go with Light Fantastic.

I think this third race in 3 weeks, for Hussler, after such a close win in his last gives the edge to the fresh horse but there really is nothing between them on paper.

Valerie said...

Look at Weekend Hussler prancing on track with his neck arched...he knows he's a champ. Still, I'm a sucker for grays :)

Valerie said...

Isn't it weird that they don't post fractional times?

Winston...not really said...

WOW!!!!!!!

Winston...not really said...

Those last 3f times that they do post. Are those the times of the winner or each horse or what?

Valerie said...

Gee, horses that actually run races are fit enough to win more races...with one week off, Weekend Hussler back for more :)

And, how about Zarita? No one can convince me that fillies and mares can't run competitively against males.

Winston...not really said...

Well...my geriatric ass is going to bed.

Thanks for putting up with me and for the help.

Valerie said...

Live blogging like computer sex for horse racing degenerates...was it good for you? :)

Nite, geezer :)

dana said...

wow... what a night!

:)