Breeders' Cup Pre-Entries

Pre-entries for the Breeders’ Cup races were announced on Wednesday, which you can view here and here. Rather than pointedly noting that half of the 14 races failed to draw full fields and reeling off a litany of top competitors who, for one reason or another, won’t be at Santa Anita next week, I’ll take the high road and focus on the positive. And maybe one of the most heartening developments is the number of female trainers who will be represent with not just runners, but strong contenders—eight!

Helen Pitts-Blasi has Einstein coming into the Classic under the radar—and a major threat. The rock-hard Santa Anita turf fits Mary Hartmann-trained Presious Passion and this front-runner could steal the Turf. Josie Carroll’s Careless Jewel looks formidable in the Ladies Classic. Jenine Sahadi’s Gotta Have Her has yet to finish out the money in eight starts this year, and will enter the Turf Sprint off victories in the G2 Palomar and G3 Senator Ken Maddy handicaps. The Marathon field includes Lisa Lewis-trained Black Astor, and G2 Brooklyn Handicap winner Eldaafer, trained by Diane Alvarado. Carla Gaines entered California Cup Sprint victor Dancing in Silks in the Sprint, with second preference in the Turf Sprint, while Linda Rice-trained Canadian Ballet will likely draw into the Turf Sprint.

In the Filly & Mare Sprint, no Carlsbad, whose connections would have had to pay huge supplemental fees, or Indian Blessing, and Sweet Hearth (who I discussed in my latest NTRA post) will go in the Dirt Mile. That leaves (in alphabetical order):

1. Allicansayis Wow
2. Evita Argentina
3. Free Flying Soul
4. Game Face
5. Informed Decision
6. Only Green (IRE)
7. Sara Louise
8. Seventh Street
9. Silver Swallow
10. Ventura

If this race were held anywhere outside of California, Free Flying Soul and Silver Swallow wouldn’t be running; Allicansayis Wow and Evita Argentina flesh out the “home team.” Only Green is an unknown, shipping in from Europe, but Goldikova’s “rabbit” isn’t likely to match up against Informed Decision and Ventura who far surpass this field in quality. Sara Louise is perhaps the biggest threat to finish among the top three. I promise a more thorough evaluation after post positions are set next Tuesday, but this race looks to be chalky.

Other initial thoughts:
Zenyatta in the Classic is anti-climatic. Sorry, but I fear her undefeated streak is at an end, regardless of which Breeders’ Cup race she entered.

The Turf comes up amazingly light, with only 8 likely starters? Wow, if any race would have a full field, I thought that would be it, but I guess $3 million isn’t what it used to be.

The Sprint looks extremely competitive, but I love Fatal Bullet to improve on his second place finish last year.

I guess statistically the more horses you enter, the better chance you have of winning, BUT...Todd Pletcher doesn’t look to have a winner among his bunch (sorry, Toddster). On the other hand, Saeed bin Suroor and Godolphin/Darley look to have a very good couple of days.

Read more »

Cox Plate and Undercard Analysis

G3 Red Anchor (Australia) Stakes (3A) 10:20 p.m. EDT
Peter Moody-trained filly Avenue looks impossible to beat here, coming in off two impressive G3 wins and being undefeated over this track in two attempts. For the rest, it’s a battle for second, and it’s likely to get personal. Craig Williams was dumped as stable jockey by David Hayes recently, thus Damien Oliver takes the ride on La Bella Encosta while Williams replaces Oliver on Darren Weir-trained Broken.

[UPDATE: Even without her best effort, 2-5 favorite Avenue was much the best; Darley's 25-1 Goverance (which I made a late impulse place bet on) rushed up from the rear to get second, followed by 25-1 Broken. Chalk one up for Craig Williams!]

G2 Crystal Mile (4A) 10:55 p.m. EDT
Top-weight Rangirangdoo has been flying of late, with 10 placings in 10 races, including 6 wins. He was a close second last out to Cox Plate contender Rock Kingdom, in the G1 Epsom over this distance. Although he has yet to attempt this unique Moonee Valley course in race conditions (according to reports, he did not work well over the course in trackwork earlier this week), he looks a good bet here. Lucky Thunder has yet to win in 6 attempts at 1 mile, but with 4 placings, including a third-place finish behind Heart of Dreams and Von Costa de Hero in the G1 Cadbury Guineas back in March, a win last out going 7-3/4 furlongs, a dry track, and dropping 11 pounds, he’s a real place money threat. Can Maxisun stretch out? For a price, The Fonz gets a thumbs-up if Craig Williams has a chip on his shoulder, or how about lightly-raced American-bred Sound of Nature, son of G1 Flower Bowl victress Yashmak—you can never count out the Lee Freedman-Dwayne Dunn combo.

[UPDATE: 9-5 favorite Rangirangdoo was always going to win; with blinkers on first-time today, he just missed setting a course record. My 20-1 Sound of Nature got place, and 8-1 All American was third]

G2 AAMI Vase (5A) 11:30 p.m. EDT
Carrara won the G2 Stutt here a month back and followed that with a second-place finish behind Starspangledbanner in the G1 Caulfield Guineas two weeks ago. Extra Zero comes out of the same two races—second behind Carrara and fourth in the Guineas; not certain he can reverse form against Carrara. The sole filly in the field, Miss With Attitude, finished third in the Stutt after being interfered with, and then last out finished sixth, two lengths behind Irish Lights in the G1 Thousand Guineas under Kerrin McEvoy; reunited with Clare Lindop, she’s a real threat here. Gai Waterhouse-trained Viking Legend may be the best fit horse, got the distance a G1-placing over a heavy turf last out. He broke his maiden here at Moonee Valley, and will love the drier surface. LATE ADD: Maybe some money on Hanks whose dam Sister Fromseattle is by Seattle Slew, out of the Secretariat mare Sister Dot, which makes her a half-sister to Dehere.

[UPDATE: Bred for distance, 9-1 Hanks (by Encosta de Lago out of the Seattle Slew mare Sister FromSeattle) wins! 11-1 Spacecraft got second, with Gai Waterhouse-trained Viking Legend third, and Carrara fourth. The filly Miss with Attitude never looked comfortable.]

G2 Schweppes Stakes (6A) 12:05 a.m. EDT
Tough, tough field, starting with last year’s Schweppes winner Lucky Secret who won the G2 Schillaci last out, and loves Moonee Valley. Danleigh won the G1 Manikato over this course and distance last out, but may prefer more sting out of the ground—his far outside barrier isn’t a bonus with MV’s tight turns. Greg Eurell-trained stablemates Apache Cat and Mic Mac are both threats, but also have niggling reasons to doubt them—Apache Cat did win the G1 Australia Stakes here in February, but his recent form hasn’t been dominating like the Cat of old; Mic Mac does much better with some sting out of the track, which he likely won’t get today. Light Fantastic was once hailed the Next Big Thing, but hasn’t won since August 2008’s G2 Liston. Even first up, Bank Robber could steal this race, but I’m rooting hard to the only mare in the race, Ortensia who didn’t like the Flemington straight last out, and has twice placed here at MV.

[UPDATE: The legendary Apache Cat beats Mic Mac, with Bank Robber third and Ortensia unable to find room late, settling for fourth. Nice exacta for trainer Greg Eurell!]

G2 Moonee Valley (Cathay Pacific Airways) Cup (7A) 12:40 a.m. EDT
Top-weight Ista Kareem boasts 3 wins in 3 attempts at Moonee Valley, but gives 13 pounds to Miss Darcey who outfinished him last out—she failed to draw into last weekend’s Caulfield Cup thus lands here for Tony Cummings. Lodge the Deeds finished second behind Speed Gifted over a heavy track in the G1 Metro last out; his fitness level puts him in strong contention here. Ready to Lift is sitting on a huge race—don’t be surprised if it is this.

[Update: 7-year-old 30-1 The Sportsman upsets, with 25-1 Irazu second and 16-1 Think Money third and 40-1 Kibbutz fourth. Damn, that’s gonna be a massive tri and super!]

G1 Cox Plate (8A) 1:30 a.m. EDT
With likely pace-setter Sir Slick a vet scratch, Gai Waterhouse’s Manhattan Rain may be hustled out of his outside barrier to the early lead. He and Bart Cummings-trained So You Think are the only 3-year-olds entered, giving them each a huge weight advantage (18-21 pounds) over the rest of the field—is that enough to conquer some pretty salty runners? If Manhattan Rain can’t get it done for Gai, how about Rock Kingdom? The lady trainer has won just about every big group race—isn’t it time to add a Cox Plate to her collection? Whobegotyou is unbeaten in four attempts at Moonee Valley and will love the dry track. Heart of Dreams likewise has nothing but upside. Don’t forget G1 Metro victor Speed Gifted who goes way up in weights, but has fitness on his side (as well as Freedman-Dunn). For “longshots”, consider wily veterans Scenic Shot (third in the G1 Turnbull last out), and Vision and Power, third last out to Whobegotyou and Heart of Dreams in the G1 Yalumba.

[UPDATE: Holy cow!! Bart Cummings’ 3-year-old So You Think won wire-to-wire, with the other 3-year-old Manhattan Rain getting second, and last year’s second-place finisher Zipping in third. Truly, an amazing training feat! Kudos to Bart :) The quinella paid $162.20, the $1 tri paid $6,747.40; the $1 super paid $22,744.35. Wish I had some of that...could have remodelled my bathroom. Instead, settled for $20.10 place and $11.10 show on Manhattan Rain.]

G3 Inglis Mile (9A) 2:20 a.m. EDT
Sparkling Satine loves this track, but hasn’t done well in group racing—time for that to change? With a dry track, don’t discount Beaucoup—terrible barrier, but quality mare. Ditto Estee who won the Adelaide Guineas with Kerrin McEvoy aboard; he returns to ride her here. Also, if Lucky Thunder wins or places in the Crystal Mile (4A), wager on Silent Sophia—or bet on her regardless. Good barrier, good move getting red-hot Michelle Payne aboard.

[UPDATE: In the finale, 6-1 Lady Lynette jumped up for the win, with 12-1 Moment in Time in second, followed by 40-1 Pink Shimmer.]

Read more »

Caulfield Cup and Undercard Analysis

First she was in, and then out, and now possibly in again.

Two weeks ago, it appeared the racing career of star mare Jolie’s Shinju was over, as she was diagnosed with cardiac arrhythmia after an uncharacteristically-poor performance in the JRA Cup at Moonee Valley in Australia, ending not only her AUS-G1 Cox Plate campaign, but essentially her career back home in Singapore.

On Thursday, she galloped carrying an ECG scanner, and was passed fit to start in Saturday’s AUS-G2 Tristarc Stakes at Caulfield. Whether she performs well enough will determine if new trainer Len Treloar starts her in next weekend’s Cox Plate.

Caulfield’s Spring Carnival wraps up with a bevy of group races this weekend, culminating in the US$2.3 million AUS-G1 Caulfield Cup, a major prep for November 3’s AUS-G1 Melbourne Cup. Four top horses—Baughurst, Shocking, Newport and Miss Darcey—failed to draw into the field, but there are 18 other top runners that make this a very tough race.

Top-weight Viewed finished tenth in last year’s edition, before shocking (at 44-1) in winning the Melbourne Cup. Although he hasn’t visited the winner’s circle since, he does appear to be rounding into peak condition faster this spring and will have no problem with the sting out of the track, currently listed as DEAD (yielding) with showers. Off a distant fourth-place finish behind Gio Ponti in the US-G1 Arlington Million, Cima de Triomphe is getting some play, but I find it hard to believe this much-traveled Euro-invader is a real threat against the top Aussie and Kiwi horses. Ditto for Kirklees who, despite three consecutive wins, failed horribly in the UAE-G1 Sheema Classic in Dubai earlier this year, the only time he’s faced this quality of competition. As much as I like C’est La Guerre, he’s never won or placed in four tries at Caulfield, much like Fiumicino who’s failed there in seven tries. So, who do I like?

The New Zealand mare Daffodil looks very strong, especially with her weight assignment and the current track condition. Low-weight mare Allez Wonder, with Michelle Payne aboard, could be a huge surprise, as could 7-year-old gelding Master O’Reilly who has been close-up in many of his races over the past year, including a fourth-place finish (two lengths back) in last year’s Melbourne Cup. Predatory Pricer is a huge chance and a must-use in all exotics, as is Light Vision.

[UPDATE: Bart Cummings gets the exacta, with Foolish Pleasure descendent Viewed ($34.60 win) and Roman Emperor ($16.80 place), followed by Vigor ($9.20 show), and my girl Daffodil in fourth. Urgh! Instead of boxing 1, 7, 13 for the exacta, I boxed it for the tri—and get nothing]

[UPDATE on UPDATE: I just checked my balance and I DID win that trifecta because it was 1, 7, ALL. Thus, I'm $235.65 richer!! Yay!]

In the AUS-G3 Norman Robinson Stakes (4A), Shamoline Warrior—half-brother to last year’s AUS-G1 Victoria Derby victor Rebel Raider—looks quite strong, having defeated fellow runners Tribunal and Saint Encosta last out. However, AUS-G1 Champagne winner Onemorenomore returns to his own age group after taking on his elders—and new jock Glen Boss loves these “big day” races.

[UPDATE: Shamoline Warrior ($5.30 win) over Onemorenomore ($5.50 place) makes chalky $28.80 exacta.]

Royal Discretion won last year’s AUS-G3 Moonga (Betfair) Stakes (5A), but not sure I’d back him over Rightfully Yours or the game warrior Sniper’s Bullet. McClintock is likely to finish in the top fours.

[UPDATE: Mcclintock ($20.80 win) upsets Rightfully Yours ($4.70 place) for descent $53.10 exacta.]

In the AUS-G2 Tristarc Stakes (6A), Hot Danish will be hard to beat, but if Jolie’s Shinju is truly back in form, these two could provide us with a race for the ages. Typhoon Tracy would prefer a rock-hard track, but is still a threat—and don’t count out Neroli or Gold Water. For a price, you can’t go wrong with Velocitea, and maybe Glowlamp’s time has come?

[UPDATE: Typhoon Tracy ($9.00 win) easily defeats Hot Danish ($3.30 place), but (surprise!) my little girl Glowlamp (at least 99-1) got third ($29.50 show) over Neroli. Jolie’s Shinju led, but faded to mid-pack. No Cox Plate would be my guess.]

Three of the four excluded from the Caulfield Cup go instead in the AUS-G3 David Jones Coongy Cup (7A), with the best hope of them being Baughurst. The big question is can Drumbeats get 2000 meters? I love Dwayne Dunn back on Cape d’Amore, and Ulysses should be there at the finish, as will Pre Eminence.

[UPDATE: Baughurst ($7.40 win) beat Shocking ($6.00 place)—Drumbeats finished within the top five or six.]

Finally, in the AUS-G2 Caulfield Sprint (9A), I’m all over Phelan Ready, Turffontein, and First Command. Diplomatic Force always run well first up, but the soft going won’t favor him.

[UPDATE: Favorite First Command ($4.30 win) defeated Turffontein ($16.80 place) with Happy Glen ($20.20 show) fleshing out the trifecta]

Read more »

Ward and Ramsey Plan Another Foreign Invasion

I always enjoy reading effervescent Australian lady trainer Gai Waterhouse’s blog, as she often reveals not only brilliant tidbits about her runners, but also makes insightful (and sometimes scathing) commentary on the state of racing. I can’t imagine an American trainer who could pull off what she does.

Fascinating morsel of information from her on Thursday—a scanned copy of a letter to her from American trainer Wesley Ward which states that: (1.) Hialeah Park is to be open for training purposes (in addition to quarter-horse races, I presume—something that I had not previously heard); and (2.) Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey plan to send ENG-G1 Golden Jubilee runner-up (and Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint probable) Cannonball to Hong Kong for December’s G1 Hong Kong Classic, and then to Australia for the G1 Lightning Stakes at Flemington. Fascinating—and ambitious, to say the least.

Yet another jam-packed night of group races upcoming this evening (and early Saturday morning) from Australia, including the $1 million G1 Caulfield Guineas featuring Gai’s tremendously-talented Manhattan Rain taking on nearly-unbeaten Darley-colt Denman and promising Patinack Farm-owned Trusting. For a bit of price, I like the New Zealand-bred So You Think.

In the G1 Yalumba Stakes, last year’s winner Douro Valley returns—albeit way off form—but the hot-favorites look to be Whobegotyou and Heart of Dreams. For me, though, it’s the Kiwi high-weights that are sentimental choices, particularly Nom Du Jeu—and don’t count out the great mare Zarita.

The G1 Toorak Handicap features Black Piranha, recently unable to break out from the bridesmaid’s role, with four straight second-place finishes. Gai’s Rock Kingdom comes in off a win in last weekend’s G1 Epsom Handicap, but with a new jockey (Craig Williams) and an awkward post position (15). Rock Kingdom’s most recent jock, Blake Shinn, takes the ride of favorite Raheeb, but, with his drop in weight assignment (from 122 to 115), Raffaello could be very tough.

Seven-year-old Apache Cat tries the G2 Schillaci Stakes, although Lucky Secret will thrive at the distance, and watch out for the spicy-hot 3-year-olds, Wanted who has put in two sharp appearances this spring, and the General Nediym filly Paprika making her first start since finishing second behind Phelan Ready in the $2 million Magic Millions Classic back in January.

The 12-furlong G2 Presentation (Herbert Power) Stakes underwhelms me, especially with C’est La Guerre out. I suppose if I had to choose, last-out JRA winner Alcopop looks in form, and Zavite’s reunion with jockey Nash Rawiller (and the dry track) offer a promising return to the winner’s cicle.

That same dry track doesn’t necessarily favor Avenue in the G3 Thoroughbred Club Stakes. I am looking forward to the return of the Shamardal filly Marquardt who thumped Manhattan Rain back in January. Darley-owned Kanzan will likely get a piece.

Read more »

A Bird for All Seasons

Now that the summer rains have changed to autumn rains—and, boy, did they come with a vengeance on Saturday in New York—the glorious chestnut colt Summer Bird is shining even more brightly. Quality Road’s connections can bemoan the track condition, but, wet track or no, Summer Bird wasn’t going to be denied victory in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, becoming the first horse since Easy Goer in 1989 to accomplish the Belmont, Travers and JCGC triple. The Eclipse award for top 3-year-old colt is a lock, in my opinion, regardless of the Breeders’ Cup Classic outcome. Honestly, much like Rachel Alexandra, what other 3-year-old colt or gelding has accomplished what he has this year—and continues to meet each challenge placed before him?

I loved Summer Bird back in April, pegging him a longshot flyer in the G2 Arkansas Derby off a maiden win, and then, for Ray Paulick’s Kentucky Derby Index, I was the only pundit to give him a vote—then justified my choice in a blog post which gained varied comments, including SaratogaSpa speculating he might try the Belmont-Travers double (good call) and my good friend Superfecta’s prophetic “I think he’ll be a big threat in New York.” Amen, sister!

In addition to his continuing upward trajectory, it’s so refreshing to not hear he’s being rushed to stud. According to trainer Tim Ice, “I think there's still a lot of upside to him. Today proved he can compete with older horses; he'll be back as a 4-year-old and he'll be taking on older horses most likely in the Breeders' Cup. He's a colt that has moved forward with each race he's won. He is what we thought he was.”

A champion, that’s what he is. On to Santa Anita!

Read more »