Maximus Effort

Tremendous juvenile racing this long holiday weekend at Aqueduct, Churchill and Hollywood—although I’m not sure we saw the second-coming of Rachel Alexandra. Still, good stuff! Dana over at Green but Game has a great recap of some promising potential stars, but I wanted to give a proper post to one of my favorite efforts, an allowance win by Maximus Ruler in race 8 at Churchill on Saturday.

On November 14, this son of Roman Ruler, out of a Lost Code mare named Lost Love (whose dam Flirting just happens to be by Foolish Pleasure, out of the Advocator mare Horsing Around—not a bloodline you hear much these days) made his debut in race 10 at Churchill Downs (MSW, 7f dirt), set off at odds of just over 52-1, and, as you can see via the race replay below, he was tremendously-impressive closing late to finish third by less than a head (he’s also a BIG boy):



Nominated for the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, his connections opted for an 8f allowance race for non-winners of two, of which he was the sole maiden. Watch the replay—jockey Francisco Torres makes a sweet move to bring him mid-pack in the backstretch and then he bursts through to take the lead, never really threatened:



Final time for the mile: 1:35.94. The second-place finisher, Guys Reward (by Grand Reward out of a Mr. Greeley mare Beach View) is another to watch as he (surprisingly) looks to want a bit of distance—well, maybe not so surprisingly, as through his dam he is related to Giant’s Causeway.

Freshman sire Roman Ruler has impressed me thus far with his first crop, among the best being G1 Champagne victor Homeboykris (who was crushed by potential superstar Buddy’s Saint in the G2 Remsen on Saturday), and the ill-named filly Connie and Michael who finished third in the G3 Miesque over the Hollywood turf on Sunday. He also has a G1 winner in Mexico, called Zacatlan, so much like their daddy, I suppose Roman Ruler's progeny are precocious.

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On the Other Side of the World

As a life-long night-owl, I’ve always appreciated being more cognizant of breaking news in the middle of the night, whilst normal people slept. Still, prowling around the ‘net early Sunday morning, even I was impressed by the number of breaking stories.

First, and most disappointingly, is news that that Summer Bird is out of the JPN-G1 Japan Cup Dirt after suffering a bone chip—it would be even more disheartening if he were to be retired rather than have the opportunity to run next year. Obviously, even after surgery he might not be the same horse, but I was honestly looking forward to seeing the best of him yet to come. Here’s hoping the Jayaramans resist the breeding shed temptation for now.

The second news is far more pleasant, as the much-beloved 5-year-old mare Vodka finally won the JPN-G1 Japan Cup, after fourth and third place finishes in 2007 and 2008 respectively. Lightly-raced 4-year-old colt Oken Bruce Lee nearly caught her at the wire, only to lose by a nose, while cracking 3-year-old filly Red Desire finished third, ahead of favorite/BC Turf champion Conduit. The video is in Japanese; Vodka is #5 and chestnut Oken Bruce Lee is #10:



Just as here in the U.S., group racing Down Under is about to crank back significantly, with only two G1 events in the next two months—the G1 Kingston Town Classic at Ascot on December 5, followed by the G1 Lightning Stakes at Flemington on January 30.

Steve Brem, whose blog This Racing Game is sorely missed, must be very proud, as his once-$50,000 yearling/now 4-year-old filly Ortensia crushed the G2 Winterbottom Stakes at Ascot this weekend—a worthy achievement, even with top sprinter Lucky Secret scratched. Hey, she even has her own Facebook page!

Ortensia and the game 4-year-old filly Romneya, victress of the G2 Classic Stakes, share Fille Detoile as their fourth dam—as does one-time Kentucky Derby favorite Friesan Fire (actually, Romneya’s dam Mannington and Friesan Fire’s dam Bollinger are half-sisters). Interesting to hear that Friesan Fire, now under the tutelage of Steve Asmussen, will make his first start since the Preakness this coming Thursday in an allowance race at Fair Grounds, against much seasoned older horses. His major goal: G1 Donn Handicap at Gulfstream on February 6.

In 2000, Stormy Pick won the Spinaway, becoming the first G1 winner for then-freshman sire Storm Creek. Nearly a decade later, Storm Creek, who now stands at Stoney Bridge in New Zealand for $5,000, got his second G1 winner this week, when promising 3-year-old filly Eileen Dubh won the open-company NZ-G1 Levin Classic for 24-year-old trainer Francis Finnegan. Nice story, and well-bred filly—her dam Vingtaine is a half-sister to the G1-winning mare Culminate whose most impressive race this year was a narrow second-place loss to Typhoon Tracy in the AUS-G1 Coolmore Classic. Breathtaking!



Vingtaine is also a half-sister to the unraced Cappie, whose daughter Captivate won the NZ-G1 Breeders, and a half-sister to Paris Sky whose daughter Solvini won the NZ-G3 Taranaki 2YO Classic in race and track record time.

Thanks to nzracing for posting the race video; Eileen Dubh is in white/green chevrons with white cap mid-pack early, but lifting along from the inside late:




Another impressive filly to watch for Down Under in the coming months: 2-year-old Solar Charged who won on debut at Randwick-Kensington on Saturday. Not only was her five-length win visually-impressive, but also she set a new course record (57.97 seconds for the 1000 meters), and established herself as the likely early favorite for the G1 Golden Slipper.

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On Perspective and Bias

On November 23, 1918, the legendary Exterminator wrapped up his Kentucky Derby-winning 3-year-old campaign, prevailing by a nose over Clark Handicap victor Beaverkill in the 2-1/4 mile Latonia Cup. Five days later, he won the 1-1/16 mile Thanksgiving Handicap, and then shipped home to Binghamton, NY, to be turned out for the winter, after amassing for the year a record of 7 wins, 4 seconds and 3 thirds in 14 starts, and total earnings of $36,147. In addition to the Kentucky Derby (his first race of the year) and the two Latonia stakes, Exterminator also won the Carrollton and Ellicott City handicaps at Laurel in October, as well as the Pimlico Autumn Handicap in November. As the Daily Racing Form (DRF) noted on December 10, 1918:

“When he started in the Kentucky Derby his inclusion in the field excited no consideration, and when he won the big race it was put down as a fluke. But his subsequent career in racing dispelled this illusion, and when he returned to Kentucky in the fall to win the two miles and a quarter Latonia Cup it was with the well-earned reputation of being one of the best three-year-olds of 1918.”

Yet, when the DRF checked in on the nation’s third-leading money winner later in December, it was his Travers-winning stablemate who garnered the headline “Sun Briar Wintering Well.” The DRF reporter gushed:

“It is easy to express an opinion of Sun Briar’s appearance as he is today. He is the handsomest horse in America, and looks the exact part of what he surely is—a high-class, all around race horse at any distance. He is as sound as he ever was, and racegoers may have the pleasure of seeing this really wonderful horse under colors again the coming year, as Mr. Kilmer is undecided as to the future of his favorite.”

He continues, with considerably less enthusiasm:

“In the next stall stands Exterminator, the winner of the coveted Kentucky Derby and the only horse to win that cherished event and the Latonia Cup. While not as high a class horse as his more famous stablemate and nothing like as handsome, the unsexed son of McGee is a decidedly useful sort, as attested by the fact that he was third in the list of American winners for the racing season just closed.”

Rodney Dangerfield enjoyed considerably more respect than poor Exterminator.

Surely that unnamed DRF writer would eat his words, though, beginning with a near-track record performance Exterminator put on at Oaklawn in his 1919 opener, a 1 mile and 70 yard handicap on March 22 for which, carrying 126 lbs, he gave between 11 and 18 lbs to his competitors. Yet, after Sun Briar returned in August, victorious over his stablemate in the Champlain Handicap at Saratoga, the DRF ran another article heralding Sun Briar:

“It is gratifying to chronicle the fact that besides being one of the fastest horses in the country, if not, indeed, the fastest with scale weight up, Sun Briar is a superb specimen of the thoroughbred race horse in conformation, quality, finish and type. He is the color of old San Domingo mahogany, stands about 15.3 hands high and looks as much like an equine gamecock as any horse ever did. None of your lop-eared, listless, gross-looking, gummy legged ones is Sun Briar, but a living model for one of...the extremely bloodlike old English turf champions. No one would ever mistake him for a gelding...”

History proved Sun Briar’s worth as a stallion, as his progeny included Hall of Fame handicap horse Sun Beau, as well as 1925 champion 2-year-old colt Pompey and Pompey’s full-sister Laughing Queen, the third dam of the great Tom Fool. His daughter Suntica won the Test and Kentucky Oaks, and son Sun Flag took the 1924 Travers.

Yet, it is Exterminator—“Old Bones”—whose exploits on the track have become legend, winning 50 of 99 races over a career that spanned eight years, including 33 stakes—three consecutive Pimlico and Toronto Autumn cups, and four consecutive Saratoga Cups, in addition to the Brooklyn, Clark, Camden, Ben Ali, Philadelphia and Kentucky handicaps. It is gangly, 17-hands tall Exterminator who, in his 1945 autobiography, Colonel Matt Winn chose as the greatest horse he ever saw race “because when greatness is reckoned, the factors entering into it are speed, courage, stamina, intelligence, and perhaps, more importantly, durability.”

It is virtually impossible for contemporaneous writers to provide proper or unbiased perspective regarding the horses they see race—as with all historical observations, time must pass before a deeper understanding and appreciation sets in, and personal bias overcome. The same is true of the ongoing Zenyatta-Rachel Alexandra “debate”. Right now, passions run high based on how one feels about their respective connections, as well as campaign issues including geography, track surfaces, competition and, of course, the fact that they did not meet on the track. I completely understand the desire to debate their relative merits, and even the swirling “Horse of the Year” controversy. While some agree the issue is hardly worth the battle royal that has erupted on boards, blogs and in print—and sharing the award a worthy goal—others are determined there can be only one—and most of those strongly prefer one over the other. And that’s fine.

As my prior comments on the matter have been criticized in various quarters—and it’s even been suggested that folks like me need to “grow a pair” (a revolting thought, to say the least)—I’ll put aside my historian’s inclination to be unbiased, and render my own just-as-prejudicial-as-everyone-else’s view. Don’t be surprised when, in years to come, the merits of one horse far overshadows the other. It will be the one who traveled from track to track all over this country, taking on open company multiple times and challenges no longer pursued by top race horses—and not the one coddled by her connections, and aimed for one race on a preferred home surface.

In a December 1922 Vanity Fair article entitled “Exterminator: A Wonder Horse”, O’Neil Sevier noted about the then-seven-year-old “Horse of the Year”:

“Wonder horses are of fairly common recurrence in racing. [They] are cropping up every season or so to crowd writers of racing hard for fresh superlatives. Fairly often, two thoroughbred whirlwinds show in a single season and it is necessary toward the end of such to organize special events...to determine which is the champion in his class. At more widely spaced periods great outstanding fellows like...Man o’War appear each to be decorated, for a time at least, with some such grandiose title as “The Horse of the Century.” At very remote intervals one of these horses keeps winning long enough, or retires opportunely enough, to have such an appellation stick, as in the case of Man o’War. But horses like Exterminator are very rare....The career of Exterminator is an American racing epic. His racing glory is the glory of a fixed star, not the ephemeral, meteoric kind of the wonder horse or the horse of the century.”

Personally, I can’t wait for the next chapter in Rachel Alexandra’s epic—onward to 2010!



Sources consulted:

“Kentucky’s Racing Returns of Money Won By Owners at its Lexington, Churchill Downs, Douglas Park and Latonia Meetings” Daily Racing Form (December 10, 1918).

“Sun Briar Wintering Well. Mr. Kilmer’s Great Horse Not Likely to Go to Europe. Exterminator and Two-Year-Olds to Be Trained at Hot Springs, Ark.” Daily Racing Form, December 20, 1918

“Sun Briar Superb Type of Horse” Daily Racing Form (August 14, 1919).

O’Neil Sevier, “Exterminator: A Wonder Horse” Vanity Fair (December 1922) pp. 75, 114.

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Better Than Honour Strikes Again!

Broodmare extraordinaire Better Than Honour struck again on Sunday, when Cascading, the 2-year-old daughter of her daughter Teeming (Storm Cat), won the Glorious Song Stakes at Woodbine in only her third start. Watch the race replay here. A beautiful ride by Patrick Husbands, and a good training job by Josie Carroll who’s having quite a run with fillies these days, most notably G1 Alabama winner Careless Jewel. With her pedigree—by A.P. Indy, just like Rags to Riches—one can only hope that Cascading has a brilliant 3-year-old campaign ahead of her.

Can’t IEAH do anything simple? First, they buy Diamondrella, run her in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (where she finished 11th of 14), then ship her to Kentucky for the Fasig-Tipton sale only to buy her back at $1.1 million, and now ship her back to California and place her with new trainer Gary Stevens. She’s schedule to run in the November 28 G1 Matriarch at Hollywood. Not that I wish Diamondrella ill-will, but no wonder Michael Iavarone needs a burly bodyguard—those IEAH investors must be pissed with him flinging money away, flying her back and forth, paying Fasig-Tipton’s fees and now probably having a horse that is not in prime condition after her cross-country misadventure.

And since I’m mini-ranting, it blows my mind that a quality racemare like Indian Blessing is being sent to an unproven sire (and frankly dubious-quality racehorse) in the form of Zensational. I don’t know how much sway Bob Baffert has over his owners, but, damn, if Hal and Patti Earnhardt are buying his bullshit... “The reason we are breeding Indian Blessing to Zensational is to come up with the perfect Thoroughbred. They were both unbelievable on the racetrack with perfect conformation and exceptional brilliance. We are all after the super horse, and I was blessed to train both of them.”...then they deserve whatever crappy horse is produced.

While Foolish Pleasure’s success at stud was marginal at best, as I’ve mentioned on this blog two or three...okay, maybe a zillion...times, his influence continues in the damline of some very nice turf horses—Grand Couturier, Banrock and Get Stormy, who won the G3 Commonwealth Turf at Churchill in stakes-record time on Sunday for trainer Tom Bush. He’s matured a great deal this year, finally stretching out beyond a mile, and, with a much-deserved break, he looks to be even better as a 4-year-old in 2010. What a looker too, with his sire Stormy Atlantic’s bay coloring and wide blaze, but with four white stockings!



With only five starters, you might not take a second-glance at Aqueduct’s Race 3 this coming Thursday, but it depresses me as it’s filled with has-beens and might-have-beens. Two millionaires—recent G2 Suburban winner Dry Martini and G2 UAE Derby victor Honour Devil—join the much-ballyhooed Peruvian “mystery” horse Tomcito (remember him?), along with 2007 G3 Stuyvesant winner Hunting (a 6-year-old gelding in for a $100k tag—after winning less than $70k in the past two years?) and 5-year-old Giant Chieftan (sic), a $950k yearling purchase that has earned a grand total of $187,957 in 22 lifetime races.

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Gaining Momentum?

Is it possible that a movement to honor both Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta as co-Horse of the Year Eclipse Awards is gaining momentum? The Saratogian’s Jeff Scott and the New York Post’s Ray Kerrison may have been the first mainstream journalists to suggest thinking “outside the box” and putting a joint option on the final ballot or just outright declaring the two co-winners, but their voices have now been joined by a number of other revered turf writers, including Steve Haskin at The BloodHorse who rightly recognizes:

“I realize I’m talking from the heart and not being analytical or realistic at all, but the campaigns of 5-year-old Zenyatta and 3-year-old Rachel Alexandra are so far removed from each other, and orchestrated with such different goals in mind, they cannot be compared, despite all the analysis and statistics. Therefore, the Horse of the Year award in this case should be voted on with the heart, and the heck with all the meaningless statistical comparisons. That means there is only one course of action: give it to both of them and make everyone happy. Why not? Who is it going to hurt?”

Now, the Daily Racing Form’s Steven Crist has weighed in:

“The question is whether an option to crown co-champions should be added to the Eclipse ballot....It's at least worth consideration. Regardless of your preference, there is no denying that both Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta accomplished entirely different but genuinely unprecedented things that will land them both in the Hall of Fame and stamp them as among the greatest fillies and mares of all time. Neither deserves to lose the title, and there is no rule that one of them has to: One of the virtues of the Eclipse system is that it has no ancient rules and bylaws, and the voters can pretty much do what they want.

If it turns out in the weeks ahead that a majority of the voters favor a joint award, why deprive them of that choice?”

Amen.

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Yes, Virginia, There is Life after the Breeders’ Cup

After basking in the gloaming of a reasonably successful Breeders’ Cup—one, however, that only firmed the penumbra position of real dirt racing in America—it was back to business as usual with a host of premature retirement announcements. Among them, lightly-raced synthetic sprinter Zensational who will stand for $25,000 at Hill ‘n’ Dale—exactly what the sport needs, another Unbridled’s Song son breeding! Conduit will race once more before standing stud in Japan, while Mastercraftsman will stand in Ireland.

Beyond the promised return next year of geldings Cloudy’s Knight, Presious Passion and Mine That Bird, I’m most looking forward to Summer Bird who should only ripen into a magnificent older dirt horse, the quality and quantity of which (not withstanding Curlin) has been severely lacking in recent years as so many 3-year-olds (Street Sense, Hard Spun, Big Brown, etc.) retired well before really proving themselves on the racetrack. Others returning include Cannonball who embarks on a Pacific Rim campaign, beginning in Hong Kong and then on to Australia, before heading back to Ascot next summer, and Rags to Riches’ half-brother Man of Iron who will aim for Dubai’s spring carnival.

Those fillies and mares retired or likely to be retired include Music Note, Cocoa Beach, Zenyatta, Ventura, and Seventh Street—but the good news is, in 2010, we will be able to enjoy the likes of Goldikova, Informed Decision, Sara Louise, Rainbow View, Dar Re Mi, and Rachel Alexandra (not to mention a Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs).

Sayonara, Azeri ($2.25 million), Magical Fantasy ($1.8 million), Lady Joanne ($1.6 million), Ginger Punch ($1.6 million) and Laragh ($850,000)—Japanese buyers raided the fall sales on Tuesday, coming away with all of the aforementioned G1 winners. They also acquired G1-placed Jardin and the unraced Loves Only Me, half-sister to European champion 2-year-old Rumplestiltskin, whose dam is a full-sister of Kingmambo, out of the champion Miesque. Talk about some nice bloodlines!

Among those who failed to meet their reserve at Fasig-Tipton were Diamondrella ($1.1 million) and Honey Ryder ($1.25 million), while those removed from the sale included recent G2 Raven Run winner Satans Quick Chick, G1-placed Silver Swallow, G1-placed Dubai Majesty, G1-placed Justwhistledixie, and Xtra Heat’s promising daughter Elusive Heat.

Finally, a plethora of analysis and commentary regarding the paramount issue du jour—who should be Horse of the Year—is out there, and you’ll find none better than those of Lisa Grimm (Superfecta), Teresa Genara (Brooklyn Backstretch), Gary West (West Points), Jeff Scott (The Saratogian) and, for historical perspective, Kevin Martin (Colin’s Ghost).

As I alluded to in a previous (albeit abbreviated) post, I (and other more highly-respected industry insiders) firmly believe this year deserves co-Horses of the Year, as both Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra are equally worthy. It's not like it hasn't happened before.

And don’t give me that bullshit about the Breeders’ Cup being the “World Championships” (it’s not—deal with it) or it “cheapening” the award by not selecting one over the other—this isn’t the damn electoral college or something equally profoundly important. It’s just a stupid award which, frankly, no one outside of the industry will even care about so why affect discord and hostility among what few fans remain? Let’s be adults, put aside our bias about the horses’ owners and their campaigns, and just celebrate two equally spectacular performances. Honestly, this sport does its damnest to piss people off on the smallest things rather than take on and fight the really important battles.

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I Couldn’t Have Said It Better

“That was probably the greatest performance I've ever seen. Fantastic. I'm happy and proud for Zenyatta and glad I was here to see that. I never saw Secretariat run but I've never seen anything like her. I'm really torn when it comes to the Horse of the Year. I'm probably Zenyatta's biggest fan, but it's also hard to forget what Rachel Alexandra did. If ever there was a year to split the award, this is it.”—Eoin Harty

“That was one of the greatest moments I've witnessed in my life and I'm not only talking about horse racing. She not only won but it was the way she won that made this so special because she did it with something to spare. We've now been privileged to have seen two great fillies in the same year, and it's impossible to say one was better than the other. For the good of the sport, they've got to give them both the Horse of the Year award because it just wouldn't be fair for one of them to lose. I know one thing, if they do split it, nobody will be mad.” –Angel Cordero, Jr.

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Breeders' Cup Saturday

All in all, I quite enjoyed Friday’s races, although I still got too fancy and only cashed one winning ticket—a PS on Mushka in the Distaff (I’ve decided to stop toeing the party line in calling it the “Ladies’ Classic”).

In the Marathon, Rags to Riches’ 1/2 brother Man of Iron bested Cloudy’s Knight by the smallest of margins—what a heart-breaker! Still, that performance, along with Informed Decision’s surprisingly-easy victory in the F&M Sprint and Forever Together’s third in the F&M Turf, put trainer Jonathan Sheppard tops in my eyes. What is it with gray Tapit fillies? Tapitsfly impressed in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, battling wire-to-wire with Todd Pletcher’s Rose Catherine—and the much-ballyhooed Euro Lillie Langtry was a complete non-factor, well back in eighth. I wasn’t as convinced as others on Twitter that the impeded Biofuel would have caught either She Be Wild or Beautician in the Juvenile Fillies.

Midday chalked one up for the Euros in the F&M Turf, with Forever Together disappointingly third. Probably the biggest surprise placing of the day was 35-1 Free Flying Soul’s third-place finish in the F&M Sprint, but that early speed and rail really aided her. And, by the by, she is a damline descendent of Foolish Pleasure, being out of the Farma Way mare Ruby Surprise who won the G2 Humana Distaff as a 5-year-old. And, boy, didn’t Life Is Sweet prove much-the-best? I liked Mushka coming off that Keeneland win, and Rajiv Maragh (who otherwise had a tough day) made a nice inside move on Music Note to get up for third. Careless Jewel is a filly with (hopefully) an amazing future—she just ran too greenly against these.

For whatever it's worth, here are my picks for Saturday. Good luck!


Juvenile Turf (1:45 p.m. Eastern)
Interactif cuts back in distance off two G3 wins on turf. Becky’s Kitten was runner-up to Bridgetown in the G3 Summer Stakes at Woodbine. The best of the Euros on paper is Pounced, runner-up in the G1 Grand Criterium one month ago; with Lasix, he’ll attempt a route for the first time. Runner-up in the G2 Champagne at Doncaster last out, Viscount Nelson is bred to run all day and has regular rider John Murtagh aboard—but no Lasix.

For a longshot chance, I like the Irish-raced maiden winner King Ledley. In his last race at The Curragh, he beat Beethoven who subsequently won the ENG-G1 Dewhurst; he’s also been working well in advance of this, first at Keeneland, and then Santa Anita. Local leading jockey Rafael Bejarano takes the ride, as he runs with Lasix for the first time. Oh, and did I mention his dam Mt. Kobla is a half-sister to Quality Road?

$1 Trifecta box: Viscount Nelson, Becky’s Kitten, Interactif (2, 10, 11)
$2 WPS longshot flyer: King Ledley (8)



Turf Sprint (2:23 p.m. Eastern)
What a hot mess this field is, with more contenders than toss-outs. I’ll just root for the fillies and mares, with Diamondrella coming in off a victory in the G1 First Lady over Forever Together, G1-placed Gotta Have Her enjoying a terrific year for trainer Jenine Sahadi, and front-running Canadian Ballet for Linda Rice. Former Rice trainee Silver Timber (claimed for $25k back in April) comes in off two G3 victories and a narrow loss to ENG-G1 Golden Jubilee runner-up Cannonball. California Flag is undefeated in three starts since failing in last year’s BC Turf Sprint—tossed exercise rider and ran back to barn earlier this week.

$1 Trifecta box: Cannonball, Gotta Have Her, Diamondrella (6, 7, 10)
$2 WPS longshot flyer: Canadian Ballet (10)



Sprint (3:10 p.m. Eastern)
Instead of returning in the Turf Sprint, Fleeting Spirit attempts the shorter Sprint, and should be a handful for these boys to handle. She’s won or placed in 4 G1 events this year, including a win in the G1 July Cup and a close second to international sprint champion Scenic Blast in the G1 King’s Stand at Royal Ascot—100% quality. With Fatal Bullet and Zensational likely to set a speedy pace (possibly with Join In The Dance), it sets up well for both her and G1 Ancient Title victor Gayego. While he doesn’t have the big speed figures of Zensational, the pace scenario could set up more favorably for Capt. Candyman Can.

$1 Trifecta box: Fatal Bullet, Gayego, Fleeting Spirit (3, 5, 9)
$2 WPS longshot flyer: Capt. Candyman Can (8)



Juvenile (3:49 p.m Eastern)
Without all-weather or turf experience, I just can’t back D’Funnybone at his short price, but G1 Norfolk victor Lookin At Lucky comes in looking strong—only the far outside (13) post is bothersome. From the East, G1 Breeders’ Futurity winner Noble’s Promise won at this distance last out and held off the nicely-closing Aikenite. Of the Europeans, Beethoven is the best tried—a positive (experience) but also a possible negative (tired from a long campaign).

$1 Trifecta box: Noble’s Promise, Aikenite, Lookin At Lucky (4, 9, 13)
$2 WPS longshot flyer: Beethoven (3)



Turf Mile (4:28 p.m. Eastern)
Defending champion Goldikova won 3 G1 races in July and August, but surprisingly failed in her last effort before this—vulnerable? I like the form line of Zacinto, who looks to continue Juddmonte’s BC success this year, and Cowboy Cal has early speed which bodes well for his chances.

No horse in this field is better bred to be a Breeders’ Cup winner than Justenuffhumor. Not only is he a half-brother to 2006 BC Juvenile Fillies champion Dreaming of Anna, but his dam Justenuffheart is also a half-sister to 2004 BC Turf runner-up Kitten’s Joy and multiple-G1 victress Precious Kitten. If only he can get enough speed to run at, an upset possibility. Ditto for Ferneley who has excellent form behind Ventura last out in the G1 Woodbine Mile.

$1 Trifecta box: Cowboy Cal, Zacinto, Goldikova (3, 8, 11)
$2 WPS longshot flyer: Justenuffhumor (10) or Ferneley (7)



Dirt Mile (5:12 p.m. Eastern)
It’s impossible to look beyond the form line of Mastercraftsman, especially behind Arc winner Sea the Stars, and his facile victory over all-weather surface at Dundalk last out. Plus, this field is just weak. After prolonged contemplation (mostly negative), I just can’t put Pyro in the final three, even after his G1 Forego win—not convinced he likes all-weather surfaces (that horrific G1 Bluegrass still haunts me). Bullsbay also has strong form—but did nothing in the G1 Hollywood Gold Cup. Last year’s G1 BC Juvenile champ Midshipman has only 1 race since then (an AOC at Belmont) so not sure how ready he is. I’m tempted to toss in Furthest Land off his G2 Kentucky Cup Classic win at Turfway last out, and even Mr. Sidney off his turf form. Chocolate Candy has just broken my heart too many times and Calvin Borel on Ready’s Echo isn’t a positive. For a bomber, why not turfster Mambo Meister?

$1 Trifecta box: Mastercraftsman, Furthest Land, Mr. Sidney (1, 2, 8)
$2 WPS longshot flyer: Mambo Meister (6)



Turf (5:57 p.m. Eastern)
All talk is about the Euros Conduit and Dar Re Mi, but I believe Presious Passion can steal this. He loves the rock-hard turf, and has a good record over this track—just firing on all cylinders in advance of this. If he doesn’t freak in the post parade, Spanish Moon has a very good chance.

$1 Trifecta box: Conduit, Spanish Moon, Presious Passion (2, 6, 7)
$2 WPS longshot flyer: Telling (1)



Classic (6:45 p.m. Eastern)
Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Zenyatta—she’s going to get a ton of money, but enough speed to run at? I think it will be Einstein who takes this, probably with Zenyatta within a half-length, followed by either Richard’s Kid or Twice Over. I absolutely love Summer Bird, but the surface is a huge question mark. If he does win, it would be very tough—regardless of how their one-on-one match-up ended—to not seriously consider him for Horse of the Year. Sorry, I’m not willing to concede this to the Euros this year.


$1 Trifecta box: Zenyatta, Richard’s Kid, Einstein (4, 6, 8)
$2 WPS longshot flyer: Twice Over (5)

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Analysis Paralysis

Analysis Paralysis: a situation where the sheer quantity of analysis overwhelms the decision making process itself.

As I wrote in my most recent blog post for the NTRA, I was determined this year to follow the simple yet profound adage “Keep It Simple, Stupid.” Last year I drove myself crazy in advance of the Breeders’ Cup by picking apart every little detail, reading every single article, pondering all possible scenarios—all to no avail when it simply came down to this: every horse that won over Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride surface had previous all-weather surface or turf experience, and European horses dominated.

What's more, despite all the hype, each race is still just a race, so why not handicap them in the same way? After all, the fundamentals still apply...

With that in mind, here are my impressions for Friday’s Breeders’ Cup races—prime contenders and longshot potentials, as I see it.

Marathon (3:35 p.m. Eastern)
Perhaps the most spectacularly difficult to handicap, as there are far too few races of this distance in North America, let alone quality races. It’s all about pace and stamina. Last year’s winner Muhannak is back, but doesn’t have the same strong form coming into this race, thus I can’t back him. I love 9-year-old Cloudy’s Knight who is back in form after a long layoff and rehabilitation for new trainer Jonathan Sheppard. He is a G1 winner against international competitors (2007 Canadian International), a class edge certainly over his fellow North Americans—but he’s never run on an artificial surface.

Of the Europeans, Godolphin’s 3-year-old Mastery looks strongest, with a G1 win in the English St. Leger last out, and a placing this year in the 2 mile ENG-G3 Queen’s Vase at Ascot. He’s beaten Father Time twice this year, but that one likes a faster pace which he should get with Black Astor likely to be sent (à la Presious Passion) to the early lead with, according to trainer Todd Pletcher, Nite Light prominent as well.

Of the longshots, Eldaafer appeals to me in terms of his connections and stamina potential. Man of Iron interests me not because he’s a half-brother to G1 Belmont victress Rags to Riches, but his two all-weather victories this year (albeit in allowance company—but, hey, Muhannak didn’t have much more last year).

However, the one that most peaks my interest is Gangbuster who ran well fresh with Kent Desormeaux up in the Fort Harrod at Keeneland, winning by nearly 11 lengths. After running sixth to Brass Hat in the G3 Louisville Handicap on turf, he returned to Polytrack, finishing second behind Rumor Has It at this distance in Arlington’s Polar Expedition Stakes. In the 12-furlong Cougar II Handicap at Del Mar, he finished fourth, just two lengths behind victor Usual Suspect, the talented Richard’s Kid, and last year’s Marathon runner-up Church Service. His performance in the G3 Turfway Park Fall Championship wasn’t good, but off a freshening, and with Kent back aboard for his brother Keith, I think Gangbuster is a real threat for a piece of the exotics, if not an out-and-out winner.

$1 Trifecta box: Cloudy’s Knight, Father Time, Mastery (4, 5, 6)
$2 WPS longshot flyer: Gangbuster (10)



Juvenile Fillies Turf (4:08 p.m. Eastern)
Aidan O’Brien-trained Lillie Langtry is G1-placed in Europe, which will garner support for her, but I think there are plenty of strong candidates from this side of the Atlantic. Lightly-raced House of Grace is 2 for 2 (one on turf, the other Polytrack), and both wins came at a half furlong longer than this race—the drop back in distance is surely a positive. Smart Seattle finished just behind her last out, and looked better on turf in her previous effort. From all accounts, Tapitsfly is working gangbusters since arriving in California, and looks to rebound from disappointing effort in the off-turf Miss Grillo at Belmont—a race that had only three runners, which completely threw out any real pace. If she runs back to her form in the P.G. Johnson Stakes at Saratoga, she’ll be tough to beat.

Other possible exotic players: Steve Asmussen’s sole Breeders’ Cup entry, Jungle Tale, was a narrow second-place finisher in the 8 furlong G3 Natalma over the Woodbine turf last out. Todd Pletcher-trained Rose Catherine comes in off an impressive 6 furlong maiden win.

My longshot flyer is Potosina who comes in off a victory in Belmont’s 8.5 furlong Good Mood Stakes over a soft turf. She’s out of hot sire Cactus Ridge whose 3-year-old daughter Hot Cha Cha recently won the grassy G1 QE II Challenge Cup; her dam was not only champion turf mare in Chile, but has also produced two Chilean champion turf fillies. Being an on-pace runner breaking from the rail with Johnny Velazquez aboard again, I think she’s a strong possibility to finish in the top three.

$1 Trifecta box: Smart Seattle, House of Grace, Tapitsfly (3, 7, 10)
$2 WPS longshot flyer: Potosina (1)



Juvenile Fillies (4:45 p.m. Eastern)
I see this as an “East vs. West” competition, with Keeneland’s G1 Alcibiades and Santa Anita’s G1 Oak Leaf as the two major form lines.

From the East, Negligee impressively won the Alcibiades and has worked well in advance of this—but draws so far out (10) that I’m not hopeful of victory. She Be Wild lost to Negligee last out, but gets a more favorable post (8) and jockey change to Julien Leparoux. Beautician ran into all kinds of problems in the Alcibiades; a jockey change to Robbie Albarado and strong works at Santa Anita bode well for her chances.

Oak Leaf winner Blind Luck drew post 3, while runner-up Always a Princess is unfortunately stranded out in post 11. It’s actually the third-place finisher from the Oak Leaf that appeals to me—Kelly Breen-trained Bickersons has posted three impressive works since that race, draws post 5, and gains the services of local sensation Joel Rosario. At morning line 20-1, I’m all over her here.

Of the others, the ill-named Connie and Michael comes in off a maiden win at Keeneland—is she special enough to handle far more experienced fillies? Devil May Care put on a gutsy performance winning the G1 Frizette, but has zero all-weather or turf experience.

$1 Trifecta box: Beautician, Bickersons, Negligee (4, 5, 10)
$2 WPS longshot flyer: Bickersons (5)



Filly & Mare Turf (5:23 p.m. Eastern)
Defending champion Forever Together is back, but off two consecutive losses, I don’t see her as unbeatable. Magical Fantasy is on a four-race win streak, including victories over the likes of Visit and Black Mamba. With her experience over this track, she’s a major threat. Pure Clan had her number last year, and comes in on an upswing—though with new rider Garrett Gomez, as Leparoux sticks with Forever Together. The lone European entry Midday has excellent form, including a G1 victory over this distance in August. With Lasix for the first time, she’s hard to leave out of the exotics. I also like Rutherienne who has twice finished behind Forever Together this year, but the distance is such a concern.

$1 Trifecta box: Forever Together, Magical Fantasy, Midday (2, 4, 6)
$2 WPS longshot flyer: Rutherienne (3)



Filly & Mare Sprint (6:02 p.m. Eastern)
My full analysis for this race is available at the NTRA site here, but I’m leaning more and more towards Ventura on top and Informed Decision back in third or even out of the money. I can’t fully articulate my uneasy. However, if Leparoux is riding well prior to this race, I’ll give her a bigger chance. I do think one (or both) of the two Godolphin fillies will be tough. I’m particularly fond of Seventh Street, but Sara Louise is the fresh, hot young thing, and from all accounts has taken to the Pro-Ride surface. Much like the then 3-year-old Indian Blessing, I think Sara Louise will finish second behind Ventura.

$1 Trifecta box: Sara Louise, Informed Decision, Ventura (2, 8, 9)
$2 WPS longshot flyer: Evita Argentina (6)



Ladies’ Classic (6:45 p.m. Eastern)
The Godolphin duo that finished second and third behind Zenyatta in last year’s Ladies’ Classic (Distaff) return once more. If you asked me back in June about Cocoa Beach’s chances of being here, I’d respond with great skepticism, but she put in a good effort against Zenyatta and Lethal Heat in the G1 Lady’s Secret last out, and has been working well over the track. Still, she had beaten Ginger Punch coming into this race last year...With an even more limited preparation, her stablemate Music Note is the one I prefer, with victories over Indian Blessing and Informed Decision in the 7-furlong G1 Ballerina and over the in-form Unbridled Belle in the G1 Beldame. Rajiv Maragh has been riding her a treat, so I give her a big chance from post 7.

Careless Jewel and Rainbow View will get lots of support, but I believe their youth won’t overcome these saltier competitors. While Life Is Sweet has good form (particularly behind her stablemate Zenyatta), I just think she was better earlier in the year. Lethal Heat also looks a threat, and I wouldn’t be disappointed if she won, but I’m not sure she can carry her speed against these.

For a longshot, I like Mushka. In her two all-weather races—both victories at Keeneland over this distance—she’s posted strong times, and she’s rounding into form unlike the others who may have peaked earlier.

$1 Trifecta box: Mushka, Cocoa Beach, Music Note (3, 6, 7)
$2 WPS longshot flyer: Lethal Heat (4)

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The Race That Stops a Nation

Photo: Phar Lap winning the 1930 Melbourne Cup


Over 100,000 people on track, as well as millions of others across Australia and around the world will stop and watch the A$5.5 million AUS-G1 Melbourne Cup on Tuesday (Monday, 11 p.m. Eastern here in the U.S.). Run for the first time in 1861, the 3200 meter (2 miles) race is one of the most prestigious horse races in the world—a true staying test and stallion-maker, although sixteen times the race has been won by fillies and mares, including three consecutive years by the legendary Makybe Diva.

Last year’s winner Viewed (Scenic-Lovers Knot, by Khozaam) was a revelation, particularly for American bettors—he paid $186 win, $57.70 place and $29.10 show. He also represented the 12th Melbourne Cup winner for trainer Bart Cummings, and a record-tying fourth winner for owner Dato Tan Chin Nam. The same connections have a very real chance to repeat this year, as Viewed comes in off a victory in the G1 Caulfield Cup and, just three days ago, finished third in the G1 Mackinnon. Jockey Brad Rawiller is seeking his first Cup win on the favorite.

Don’t overlook the other Bart Cummings’ entries, though. Roman Emperor (Montjeu-Gussy Godiva, by Last Tycoon) finished second to his stablemate Viewed in the Caulfield Cup—and (as an aside to American racing fans) his dam is a half-sister to the recently-retired G1-winning Black Mamba. The distance should not be a problem for him, as Hugh Bowman rides. Michelle Payne attempts to become the first female jockey to win the Melbourne Cup, as she rides Bart’s third entry, 4-year-old mare Allez Wonder, recent winner of the G1 Toorak. I’d be shocked if she gets 3200 meters, but Bart is a magician.

Others to watch for:

Alcopop is bred to be a Melbourne Cup winner. His sire Jeune won the 1994 edition, his second dam Petite Luck is by 1986 winner Al Talaq, and his damsire Blevic is the son of Scenic who sired last year’s Cup winner Viewed. He’s won 7 of 10 races, but this is a major class test. Still, he’s running second favorite to Viewed.

Four-year-old New Zealand mare Daffodil would appreciate a little sting out of the track, but she’s top class. She finished an impressive fall campaign with a win in the G1 AJC Oaks over 2400 meters (1-1/2 miles), and having built up steadily this campaign with a win in the G1 Windsor Park Plate and a close-up fourth-place finish in the G1 Kelt Capital, both in New Zealand, before finishing a nice fourth behind Viewed in the G1 Caulfield Cup. She does break from the outside post 21, and you better believe previous Melbourne Cup winning (Jezabeel, 1998) jockey Chris Munce is driven to redeem his tainted reputation with a big effort. If only the turf were a little softer...still, she’s a big chance.

A win by 4-year-old Shocking would further validate his sire Street Cry. After six races this campaign, he looks to be in top form, having finished second to Alcopop in the G2 Herbert Power, then second to quality stayer Baughurst in the G3 Coongy Cup, and finally a win three days ago in the G3 Lexus. Corey Brown rides.

Quality 5-year-old mare Leica Ding is in career-best form, having won the G3 Geelong Cup last out. She’s already won at 3000 meters, and has been increasing in distance every race this campaign. Jockey Craig Williams and trainer Darren Weir are a potent duo, and she only carries 111 lbs here.


Wouldn’t be a huge surprise:

Particularly if there’s an off-track, look for Fiumicino. He led nearly all the way, before fading to sixth in April’s G1 Sydney Cup over this distance, and he’s rounding back into form, with a third place finish in the G1 Metropolitan on October 3, and a fifth-place in the recent Caulfield Cup. Jockey Steven King won the 1991 Melbourne Cup, with Bart Cummings’ mare Let’s Elope.

Seven-year-old Master O’Reilly finished fourth in last year’s race, and comes in here after four successive G1 efforts out-of-the-money versus younger up-and-comers Whobegotyou, Heart of Dreams and Predatory Pricer. With his experience and regular jockey Vlad Duric up, he could be ready for another good effort.

The 7-year-old war horse Zavite won the G1 Adelaide Cup at this distance back in March, and prefers a rock-hard track which is very likely. He finished fourth behind Alcopop in the G2 Herbert Power two starts ago, and appears to be rounding into form at just the right time. Although he usually leads, trainer Anthony Cummings (Bart’s son) has said it isn’t necessary so it will be interesting what they do with him. Mark Zahra is up.

Of the European invaders, Warringah interests me most. Not only does he gain the services of two-time Cup winning jockey Damien Oliver, but also gets a significant weight drop from his recent races—he’ll only carry 116 lbs, as opposed to between 128 and 136 lbs in Europe. He’ll definitely be on pace, and will relish the firm footing.


Key to the race:

Probably even more important than a horse’s staying ability and preparation is the rider. This is a jockey’s race, and the key is to sit, be patient and position your horse just right for the last big push in the home stretch.


Selections:

This is tough, and a lot will depend on the track condition and how they look parading. Without a doubt, one if not more of Bart Cummings’ horses will be in the top three, and personally I’m hoping for a chalky Viewed-Alcopop exacta—it’s the “Foolish Pleasure” factor that has been so prolific this past year Down Under, through his daughter Idyllic’s son Scenic. I’ll probably tinker around with a complex trifecta that includes Daffodil, Roman Emperor, Shocking and Leica Ding.

Who do you like?

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Stars of Tomorrow Today

Churchill Downs opens for its four-week Fall Meet on Sunday with a card solely of juvenile races, billed as “Stars of Tomorrow”—very catchy, I must say. I know some handicappers dislike 2-year-old races because of all the unknown factors, including first-time starters, but, boy, it sure beats a card of tired claimers this time of year. As a pedigree geek, I love these kinds of races.

I couldn’t find any free past performances for race 1, but am amazed a granddaughter of champion mare Princess Rooney is in for a $40k tag—St. Rose (Lion Heart-Rose Tiara, by St. Jovite). By mere reputation, I would assume Wesley Ward-trained Cuvette (Cuvee-Reason to Live, by Mt. Livermore) is a good bet.

In race 2, Steve Asmussen sends out Raphael Alexandro (yes, aren’t those Zayats clever in naming their horses?), a son of Medaglia d’Oro out of Game Trick, by Clever Trick. Nice series of long works at Hollywood since September, so why come East to run on dirt? About the only thing (beyond a hot sire) to merit this boy’s Keeneland September 2008 $500k price tag is the fact that his dam is a half-sister to Sweet Briar Too, dam of champion sprinter and sire Langfuhr. I much prefer Forgotten Tales (Tale of the Cat-Forgotten Secret, by Secret Slew) who tired on the lead in his first start over the Keeneland Polytrack; a 4f bullet work at Churchill since suggests he may be better prepared this time for new jock Kent Desormeaux. He is a three-quarter brother to G1-placed (Princess Rooney S.) Hot Storm, and a half-brother to G2-placed Unforgotten. A true longshot is Jimmy The Kid (A.P. Indy-My Trusty Cat, by Tale of the Cat). I like the cut-back for his first start at 8f, blinkers added and running on real dirt. His dam My Trusty Cat won the 2005 G1 Humana Distaff, in addition to the G2 Honorable Miss and several other graded placings.

In race 3, Stately Victor (Ghostzapper-Collect the Cash, by Dynaformer) returns to dirt after winning a maiden turf route at Saratoga, then finishing well-back in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity on Keeneland’s Polytrack. He did finish second behind Winslow Homer in his first effort on an off-turf race at Saratoga, but his dam is a G1 turf winner by Dynaformer, so I’m not sold on him on dirt. Holiday Buzz (Afleet Alex-Dixie Holiday, by Dixieland Band) broke his maiden over this distance at Hawthorne last out, with terrific late kick; his half-sister Holiday Runner won several stakes at 2, and finished third in the G2 Adirondack—oh, and, by the way, Holiday Runner is the dam of multiple G1 winner and Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint hopeful Seventh Street. Guys Reward (Grand Reward-Beach View, by Mr. Greeley) comes out of a second-place finish in the off-turf Cradle Stakes at River Downs, and a fifth place in the turf G3 Bourbon; he may like dirt better.

In race 4, Shawnee Moon (Forestry-Indian Halo, by Halo) has put in a string of impressive works leading to this starter for Eddie Kenneally, including a bullet 4f in :46 (1/33) at Keeneland on October 21. She’s a three-quarters sister to G3 Affirmed winner Indian Ocean. If she draws into the field, I’d also take a close look at Starlite Starbrite, again with good works, for Tom Amoss—out of a good producing, stakes winning dam Starlight Surprise (Salutely), and a good first-time starting sire Mutakddim. One that perhaps wants longer is David Carroll-trained Atwitter (Distorted Humor-Alchemist, by A.P. Indy)—her second dam Aldiza won the 1998 G1 Go For Wand by a nose over Escena, and her dam’s full-sister Altesse won last year’s G3 Turnback the Alarm; this is also the family of G2 Molly Pitcher victress Atelier (dam of G3-placed Alaazo) and G1 Spinaway third-place finisher Aunt Anne. Fascinating that Julien Leparoux takes the ride on Atwitter instead of the likely-favorite Sparkle of Light (Alke-Blushing Hope, by Housebuster) who he rode at Saratoga last out—for regular patrons Ken and Sarah Ramsey, nonetheless—and for top 2-year-old trainer Wesley Ward. Edgar Prado takes the mount.

In race 5, Henry’s Time (Hennessy-Since Time Began, by Rubiano) looks strong after finishing third at this level at Saratoga back in September; his previous form includes finishes behind G1 Hopeful third-place finisher Aikenite and CAN-G3 Summer Stakes victor Bridgetown. He is also a half-brother to G3 Azalea victress Victorina. Steve Asmussen first-time starter Mister Minister (Songandaprayer-Cherylville Slew, by Evansville Slew) has a series of strong workouts, while Helen Pitts-trained Midnight Vigil (Strong Hope-Miss Moonlight, by Broad Brush) has a big price-tag ($260k) and prolific dam (4 for 4 winners, with 1 stakeswinner).

In race 6—the first of two turf races—Graham Motion sends out Straight Talk (Macho Uno-No Foul Play, by Great Gladiator) with turf-master Julien Leparoux. This half-brother of G3 Excelsior victor Temporary Saint, out of the terrific Canadian turf stakes mare No Foul Play, ran strong in his only turf start back in August at Saratoga. However, the likely post-time favorite will be Romans Reward (Kitten’s Joy-Knock Off, by Fit to Fight) who, like Henry’s Time in race 5, has form behind CAN-G3 Summer Stakes victor Bridgetown (and, thankfully, isn’t called Roman’s Kitten). He also has some nice turf winners in his family, including half-sister Art Fan who won the Virginia Oaks, and half-brother Hunting Print who, ironically, finished second in last year’s Kitten’s Joy Stakes at Colonial. River Oaks (Distorted Humor-Lakeway, by Seattle Slew) tries turf for Bill Mott and Kent Desormeaux, and his breeding suggests he should love it; his multiple-G1 winning dam Lakeway has produced turf winner Sluice and G1 Kentucky Oaks-placed Flying Spur. Chef Bobby Flay entrusted his Furious Run (Rock Hard Ten-One Dream Cat, by Storm Cat) to Todd Pletcher who has twice tried to run this colt on turf, but both times it was taken off; his second dam is the G1 Breeders’ Cup Distaff victress One Dreamer. For a longshot play, you could do worse than Bascom Hall (Mizzen Mast-Victorian Woman, by Jeblar) who should appreciate the stretch-out from his last start; his half-brother Old Man Buck won the Grand Canyon over the Churchill turf course at two, placed third in the G2 Jefferson Cup at Churchill last year, and now runs in hurdle races. Also, Ticondero (Cherokee Run-Gal of Mine, by Mining) didn’t totally disgrace himself on soft Belmont turf last out; he is a half-brother to America America who was G2-placed on turf in Canada at 2, and on the Lone Start Oaks on turf at 3.

In race 7, Bashful Bertie (Quiet American-Clever Bertie, by Timeless Native) may have the biggest pedigree to live up to—among her dam’s six winners is multiple graded stakes victresses Hurricane Bertie and Allamerican Bertie, the latter this one’s full-sister. However, Heavenly Sister (Hennessy-Little Sister, by Valid Appeal) is probably the best bet. Her G3 winning dam has thrown a load of winners, and her second dam Mepache is not only out of a half-sister (Nowmepache) to Foolish Pleasure, but also is the dam of G3-winning Valid Expectations and Sugar Bowl Handicap victor Littleexpectations—both full-brothers to Little Sister. Another first-time starter with strong breeding is Dream Regime (Roman Ruler-Dream Deal, by Sharpen Up), with his G1 Monmouth Oaks-winning dam having already produced G2 Churchill Downs Distaff winner Dream Scheme, multiple-G1 winner Clear Mandate (dam of G1-placed Newfoundland), and Fairy Doll, dam of JPN-G1 QE II victress To the Victory, who finished second in the 2001 UAE-G1 Dubai World Cup (the only female to ever place in that race). Hidden Value (Value Plus-Raw Gold, by Rahy), who makes her eighth start of the year, doesn’t appear to be as talented as her half-sister Kadira, but has been tip-toeing around the winner’s circle; with Rajiv Maragh up for D. Wayne Lukas, this may be her day.

Race 8 is the G3 Pocahontas, a race won by multiple-G1 winning Pure Clan in 2007, and last year gave us not only red-hot Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint candidate Sara Louise, but also 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra. So, the question is, who are the future stars in this race? I’m not convinced it’s Sassy Image (Broken Vow-Ideal Image, by Hennessy). She obviously disliked Polytrack, finishing well back in the G1 Alcibiades, but she also well beaten by Hot Dixie Chick and Beautician in the G1 Spinaway. Todd Pletcher-trained Happy Week (Distorted Humor-Lassie’s Legacy, by Deputy Minister) has form behind G3 Schuylerville pacesetter Stormandaprayer, and won nicely over this distance last out. Her dam is half-sister to AP Indy, Summer Squall, and Weekend in Seattle, dam of G1 Travers runner-up Mambo in Seattle—not to mention Weekend Storm, dam of multiple-G1 winner Court Vision (among others). Running Bride (Cherokee Run-Kazumina, by Green Dancer) is undefeated against Indiana-bred competition and has posted several bullet works at Churchill, but even with Julien Leparoux up, this looks too tough. Decelerator (Dehere-Paris Rose, by Accelerator) won the G3 Debutante here in June, but has been far back in three graded stakes efforts since. Vertical Vision (Pollard’s Vision-Caney Creek, by Service Stripe) has posted some fast dirt times at Lone Star and Prairie Meadows; can this Oklahoma-bred conquer Kentucky? Vivid Colors (Roman Ruler-Scene Maker, by Unbridled’s Song) easily defeated stakes-winner and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly Turf probable Tapitsfly in her maiden effort at Churchill—which was followed by two dull efforts at Saratoga. After a break, she stretched out to 8.5f at Keeneland and with Kent Desormeaux up for Ken McPeek, this filly could steal this race on the front end. For longshots, there’s All About Anna (Maria’s Mon-Suzanna Anna, by Tale of the Cat) whose half-brother Time Limit won the Tremont and finished second in the G3 Kentucky Cup Juvenile at 2, and half-sister Miss Indy Anna finished second in the G1 Test. Earlier in the summer, she finished well back of Decelerator, Hot Dixie Chick, Beautician and Sassy Image, but after a break came back in a devastating win in the Bassinet at River Downs, followed by a disappointing fifth-place in the Presque Isle Debutante. However, if the Tapeta form from PID is as successful at Churchill as it was at Keeneland, she could be in the money here. And, for probably the longest shot winner, how about Biorra (Smoke Glacken-Birr, by Farma Way)? Okay, not just because she’s a damline descendent of Foolish Pleasure—her dam Birr won this race in 1995.

In race 9, Flatter Than Me (Flatter-Hannah’s Doll, by Boston Harbor) impressed me with his second-place finish behind Backtalk in the G3 Bashford Manor, and I can’t help by root for Indiana-bred You Already Know (Supah Blitz-Dial a Fantasy, by Phone Trick), a Foolish Pleasure sireline descendent, through his son Maudlin’s son Mecke’s son Supah Blitz.

Race 10 is the G3 Iroquois, which features Dublin (Afleet Alex-Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird), winner of the G1 Hopeful who failed as the favorite in the G1 Champagne last out. Thiskyhasnolimit (Sky Mesa-Lovely Regina, by Deputy Minister) fired well on off-tracks in two Churchill races this summer, but failed spectacularly at Saratoga. This distance shouldn’t be an obstacle; his dam is a half-sister to Bernardini. The outside post position, though, doesn’t do him any favors. Since Julien Leparoux has won the last two Iroquois (on Court Vision in 2007, and Capt. Candyman Can in 2008), it’s a good bet that his mount, Raging Wit (Distorted Humor-Pleasant Temper, by Storm Cat) should not be counted out, and why would you, as he comes in off a fourth-place effort going 8.5f on turf in the G3 Bourbon? This will be his first dirt effort for Bill Mott, and I’m looking forward to his odds being anywhere near his 12-1 morning line. For a longshot flyer, Soaring Empire (Empire Maker-Flying Passage, by A.P. Indy) won his maiden effort impressively and certainly has the breeding—his dam is a half-sister to Tara Roma, dam of G3 Ack Ack hero Cappuchino and G1 Go For Wand winner Serra Lake, and to G2 True North victor Waldoboro.

In race 11—the other race carded for turf—first time turf runner Emmalee (Smart Strike-Lassie Connection, by Seattle Slew) hasn’t done much in her two previous efforts, but, god, what a bloodline! Her dam not only has 9 winners from 13 starters and 5 turf winners, but also is a half-sister to super-broodmare Weekend Surprise (A.P. Indy, Summer Squall, et al). With top rider Robby Albarado up, the nifty-named Cave In (Mineshaft-Quick Tip, by Unaccounted For) looks a fierce challenger; her dam won the G3 Cardinal Handicap over the Churchill turf in 2002. Valse Autriche (Dynaformer-Mille Feville, by Saint Ballado) gets blinkers, Kent Desormeaux and tries grass for the first time; her dam is a half-sister to turf G3 Modesty winner Noisette. The most impressive first-time starter is Graham Motion-trained Apple Charlotte (Smart Strike-Charlotte Augusta, by Chief’s Crown) who has some brilliant works coming into this, comes from a well-producing dam (5 turf winners), and gets the services of Julien Leparoux—enough said.

Wow! I didn' intend for this post to be so long, but writing out analysis like this is a boon to me in my own handicapping. Hopeful it's fruitful as well! Good luck.

UPDATE: Results from some of my better “longshot” suggestions:

Race 3: Holiday Buzz, 14-1 ($10.40 place)
Race 4: Shawnee Moon, 9-1 ($8.60 place)
Race 6: Bascom Hall, 27-1 ($15.60 place)
Race 10: Thiskyhasnolimit, 13-1 ($28.20 win); Soaring Empire, 6-1 ($5.00 show)

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