Fillies First

As you may have noticed, I'm experimenting (once again) with a new look for this blog, and have also done so for the less-frequently published Fillies First. Since it gets far less traffic as a result, allow me to draw your attention to a new posting over there about the great Friar's Carse, a filly whose legacy continues to permeate racing bloodlines at the highest level (Sword Dancer, Dynaforce, Kinsale King, Rachel Alexandra, and Jaycito, just to name a few). I'm also pulling together my annual end-of-the-year post, featuring videos of the top filly and mare performers in open company, and pondering new topics, as well as ways to improve Fillies First. As always, suggestions appreciated!

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Yet Another Lament

Alexander Pope once said, “A little learning is a dangerous thing.” Hence, though I’m no economist, allow me to offer the opinion that there is just too damn much horse racing in this country.

Obviously, it’s a view I and others have stated before, and certainly it’s more complicated than I’m willing to concede. However, my rudimentary understanding of supply and demand is that, in order to make their product economically feasible, the producers (racetracks and horse owners) need to generate a product that meets—not exceeds—the demand of consumers (horseplayers and fans). Currently, that’s simply not the case.

Of course, owners and all of those whose livelihood depends on horses racing have a vested interest in how much racing is conducted, but if no one is watching or wagering how long can the sport survive? Check out the nearly deserted stands at Churchill for Saturday's “Stars of Tomorrow” card; it's an image that strikingly portends of a bleak future, despite the thrilling equine performances that continue to permeate the sport.

For far too long of late, horse racing has been controlled by owners and breeders who can’t (or simply don’t want to) see the bigger picture, and thus managed to oversaturate the market on so many levels. As businesses, tracks obviously want to wring out as much profit as possible, while those owned by gaming interests whose licenses mandate they conduct horse racing don’t give a damn about the sport, as it is simply a dying bastard cousin of where the real money lies (table games and slots). Additionally, despite slots-rich purses, tracks in states like Pennsylvania have yet to step up the quality of racing and build up fan interest, relying far too heavily on gaming revenue that the legislature is very likely to increasingly cut into as the budget crisis deepens. In other words, horsemen are living on borrowed time unless significant changes are made now to reshape the sport.

We—as fans, horseplayers, tracks, owners and caretakers—need to have a serious conversation about making the industry more unified and visionary—and less freelance and self-governing. The issues are diverse and complicated, so the task won’t be easy, but it must happen—and sooner rather than later.

Overhauling the number of graded stakes would be a beginning, as would the coordination (not to mention consolidation) of major race dates. Instead of thinking we need to spread out stakes races over several days during the week (such as Friday, Saturday and Sunday) in order to somehow draw more people to the track (not really happening), why not focus people’s attention with top-quality racing offered on one or two big days at multiple tracks (like Wednesday and Saturday)? In today’s busy world, fans simply don’t have time to dedicate themselves to horse racing day after day after day. If the spotlight shown on the sport once or twice a month, though, more people would likely make time to watch and wager. In the finest sense, less is more.

My bitter cold experience at Churchill for the Breeders’ Cup inspired a self-examination and respite for me, as I realized just how very burnt out I feel about racing this year. Unlike other sports, it’s 365 days a year, practically non-stop. Yes, certain tracks like Del Mar, Saratoga and Keeneland conduct shorter meets, but how much interest can watching bottom-level claimers run in below-freezing temperatures at places like Penn National (or even Aqueduct) hold?

Still, I feel like I’m missing something if I don’t check results regularly—a potential winner or underlay, not to mention the next superstar. Yet, the current number of races is just overwhelming. Did I mention it’s day after day, after day, after day, after...you get the picture? It’s almost enough to make me chuck the sport all-together, but I won’t—unlike the vast majority of folks who already have or never will engage a sport that is just too time-consuming.

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Decompression

I feel like a deep sea diver finally emerging from a decompression chamber after a two-week lull. And the first thing I see after my restful vacation from horse racing is the $1 million Delta Downs Jackpot? Oh, god, time to go back into hibernation. What a hot mess! And the first person to start talking about Gourmet Dinner in the same breath as Uncle Mo needs to be committed—immediately. Yet, with the $600,000 he earned today, the Trippi colt likely earned a spot in next year's Kentucky Derby field—more the pity Derby entry isn’t based strictly on 3-year-old performances instead of slots-driven crapfests like this race. And while on the subject of Uncle Mo, who named this horse? Okay, so it alludes to some lame-ass sports colloquialism that suggests momentum. For a horse, it just sounds stupid, and more fitting for an 8-year-old bottom-level claimer than a top-quality racehorse. Please, somebody teach Mike Repole how to name his horses, or he risks the ridicule we bloggers so aptly heap upon Zayat for his “Z” fetish and those Karakorum-crazies.

Forgive my cranky mood, but the litany of retirements over the past several weeks has me both frustrated and pessimistic. Let’s start with the big one—Zenyatta. While I wouldn’t call myself a fan in the true fanatical sense of some, I am a huge admirer. Being at Churchill for the Breeders’ Cup and witnessing in person the phenomenon that is the Big Z, I consider her performance in the Classic the best race she’s ever run, and that, in defeat, she sealed the deal (at least to me) as to being named Horse of the Year. Yet, her owners the Mosses decided to retire her to the breeding barn where, as ever hope springs eternal, they trust she’ll pass on her extraordinary talent to well-bred offspring. The reality is they likely won’t amount to much, as history and percentages demonstrates. So, why sent her off to propagate when she obviously still has the capability to crush her competition? As I’ve read others express, I would loved to have seen her aimed for the Dubai World Cup over Meydan’s Tapeta surface, if for no other reason than to send her off into history with a victory on the biggest world stage.

Another retirement I find hard to swallow is that of Mine That Bird. The Rodney Dangerfield of horses, this little gelding has received no respect this year—and didn’t deserve it with the complete mismanagement of his racing schedule and training. No, I’m not an admirer of D. Wayne Lukas, but that fact does not negate the fact that he was never the right trainer for this horse. To my dying day I will ever believe that, with the proper horse whisperer, Mine That Bird could have been an extremely-satisfying handicap campaigner and made beaucoup dough for his connections. Maybe not always in grade 1 company, but a steady money winner in stakes company nonetheless. Now he’ll just become a tubby lawn ornament, and that’s sad.

There’s nothing new about talented 3-year-olds being shuttled off to the breeding shed prematurely—see Street Sense, Hard Spun, and so many others as examples. Thus, the retirement of Lookin At Lucky doesn’t surprise me—or bother me that much either, as I’ve never believed he or any of this year’s crop of 3-year-old males was worth a damn. Oh yes, I’m going to go there. First Dude, Jackson Bend, Aikenite, Hurricane Ike, Pleasant Prince, Super Saver, A Little Warm, Miner’s Reserve, Apart, Thiskyhasnolimit, Nacho Friend...none of them strike me as particularly impressive, nor likely to make a significant impact on next year’s older horse division. I do have a particular fondness for Fly Down, though, who ran some tremendous races this year, and is my early favorite going into next year’s campaign. But, as for the rest, hasta la vista!

A glimmer of satisfaction in an otherwise dreary fortnight is news of Larry Jones’ return to training in 2011, and he’ll hit the ground running with, in addition to No Such Word and Payton d’Oro, the likes of Havre de Grace and Joyful Victory for Rick Porter’s Fox Hill Farm. Seriously, if I owned a filly of any potential talent, Jones is the trainer I would trust implicitly to bring forth her best. Welcome back, Larry!

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Lessons Learned

Hindsight is by definition 20/20, but as a horseplayer, valuable lessons can be gleaned from retrospection.

Take, for example, the “surprising” victory of Dakota Phone in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, a win that rewarded his supporters with a generous payout of $77.40. Unfortunately, I was not among them, but looking over the past performances more closely today I see that Dakota Phone and third-place finisher Gayego were the only two horses in the field to have raced—and placed—in three G1 races this year, and Gayego did so in only one of his G1 races, while Dakota Phone finished third in all three of his—all routes over one mile (Gayego’s was in a sprint). That fact alone should have placed Dakota Phone above all other entrants here instead of the longest shot in the field, but obviously bettors saw that those races were all on synthetic surfaces in California—and in his one dirt effort at Oaklawn he stopped badly to finish dead-last. However, contested at 9-furlongs, the G2 Oaklawn Handicap was probably a tad farther than he wants to go, so the Dirt Mile turned out to be the perfect spot. The favorite Here Comes Ben (whom I admit to having selected myself) had impressively won his sole G1 race this year, the 7-furlong Forego, and his narrow victory over Hamazing Destiny in the Kelly’s Landing at Churchill in June was complimented by that horse’s runner-up performance in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Yet, his only mile win was a maiden effort last year, while his 4-race win streak this year was accomplished in 7-furlongs races. Another factor to recommend Dakota Phone: his narrow runner-up finish to The Usual Q.T. in a mile turf allowance race at Hollywood in late June significantly gained in form when that one finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Mile—just a neck behind runner-up Gio Ponti and in front of G1 winners Paco Boy, Court Vision, Sidney’s Candy and Proviso (among others). I think you get the point. I, for one, feel a fool for not seeing what was clearly before me in the past performances—Dakota Phone was the class of the field, and proved it.

In the Filly and Mare Turf, Shared Account paid a whopping $94.00 for upsetting returning champion Midday which, admittedly, no one could have predicted considering that filly’s three impressive G1 wins this year. However, Shared Account should not have been 46-1. Toss her last race, the G1 Flower Bowl where she led then weakened to finish fifth on yielding turf, and you have a filly whose previous three races included: a fourth-place finish in the G3 Gallorette where she was actually only 3/4 length behind the winner Rainbow View (later, favorite for G1 Beverly D before being injured pre-race) and Flower Bowl winner Ave; a win over nice G2 winners Dynaslew and Tizaqueena in the G3 All Along; and a narrow runner-up performance behind Proviso in the G1 Diana—and that filly defeated males in the G1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile. Shared Account deserved more respect.

In the Juvenile Turf, the winner Pluck and runner-up Soldat provided little surprise considering their terrific wins in the G3 Summer Stakes at Woodbine and G3 With Anticipation at Saratoga respectively. However, third-place finisher Willcox Inn had never run on turf before, having captured his maiden in an off-turf race at Arlington before finishing third in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, both going farther than this 8-furlong event. His 23-1 odds appeared justified, until you looked more carefully at his pedigree—which I didn’t do in advance. By Harlan’s Holiday out of a Gone West mare, nothing particularly screams turf—until you consider his dam De Aaar not only was stakes-placed (Ontario Colleen) as a juvenile, but was also later a G3 runner-up on turf. Her full sister Somerset Wish produced the G3 turf winner Seaspeak, while her dam Aletta Maria (Diesis) also produced G1 turf winners Cetewayo and Dynaforce, as well as G1 turf runner-up Bowman Mill. Now that is some turf breeding, albeit hidden if one doesn’t look beyond the immediate sire and damsire.

As for Todd Pletcher-trained More Than Real going off at nearly 14-1 in the Juvenile Filly Turf, and paying $29.20 for the win...well, that just defies logic. Seeing that New Normal who defeated her in the G3 Natalma also drew long odds at 12-1, I can only assume that it was the Canadian turf stakes form that garnered little respect from bettors. Third-place finisher Kathmanblu went off at 7-1, but had much lower Beyer figures than those two, and no graded stakes experience. More Than Real's Beyer figures were also higher than those of Winter Memories who finished second, but went off at even odds.

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Reflections on Friday

A few comments on today’s racing and on-track experience before I settle into handicapping Saturday’s card.

The Races
In the Marathon, I was disappointed by both Bright Horizon and Million Seller who never looked to be contenders, while the disqualification of Prince Will I Am was severely booed in my entire seating section (near the first turn). We didn’t see any of the post-race brawl between Javier Castellano and A U Miner’s Calvin Borel (thankfully, I suppose), but what I observed after-the-fact online doesn’t exactly enhance the event’s ambiance.

Surprise, surprise! The Euro fillies didn’t make an impact in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. How in the heck did a Todd Pletcher youngster like More Than Real go off at 13.60-1? Congratulations to Bobby Flay, the kind of celebrity owner whose genuine exuberance at winning certainly ran counter to the Marathon’s ugly aftermath. Disappointed that Jimmy Toner’s Winter Memories didn’t win, though, and Kathmanblu ran a game race.

Of all the races, the Fillies’ and Mares’ Sprint disappointed me most. Not because Dubai Majesty won, as she has been in good form and knows this track well. What bugs me about this “sprint” race is that both Switch and Evening Jewel (who, incidentally, I did wager a losing exacta box on) have both raced in nothing but route races this year, and far outperformed the so-called sprinters like Champagne d’Oro, Sara Louise and (poor) Informed Decision. Part of the problem may be that the Fillies and Mares Sprint is 7-furlongs, and not 6-furlongs. Is there no such thing as a pure sprinter any longer, or are they just fast horses that can't run route distances?

Florida-raced Awesome Feather won the Juvenile Fillies, which led to goodly number of cheers on-track. As I feared, A Z Warrior proved to be the daughter and sister of sprinters—she barely made it 100 feet beyond the finish line after the race (finishing dead-last) before she was pulled up exhausted. Damn shame. With the scratch of Indian Gracey, Theyskens’ Theory broke on the rail, and Frankie Dettori had to send her early on the lead—not her usual pattern, as she’s done best running just off the pace. Nice to see Believe in A.P. get up for fourth, though—one to watch next year.

In the Fillies’ and Mares’ Turf, you could literally hear everyone sharply inhale, surprised when Shared Account was announced the winner. Tough day for Midday in losing by a neck, but she and others destroyed Plumania’s chances by squeezing her back as they began the stretch run. Plumania looked very strong on the lead as they entered the first turn, well in hand, which boded well for her—or so I thought. Alas, the best laid plans!

Blind Luck and Havre de Grace demonstrated their great rivalry and did the 3-year-old crop proud by beating all of their elders—save for Unrivaled Belle. Obviously, I loved this result, as I’m a huge Bill Mott fan (and I swear he was standing in front of us, chatting with someone, for several races before it got dark). By the time this race went off, the purported crowd of 41,614 had whittled down to probably half of that, which for what is billed as the “Ladies’ Classic” is a damnable shame! Talk about regulating a race to complete obscurity! Those watching it on television may not have gotten that impression, but on track, when the crowd is thinned out to what you might find running on a typical Saturday night at Charles Town...it left a bad taste in my mouth, to be sure. Anyways, by the last race, we left our assigned seats and got right up to the rail. Life At Ten looked horrible from the beginning, and after the race, in the excitement of Unrivaled Belle winning, it took me a while to realize that Life At Ten never crossed the finish line. I asked one of the track photographers if he had seen her, what had happened, but he didn’t know either. Before the rest of the field even came back to be unsaddled, she had her saddle off, blanket on and was walking past us—and the returning field. Only later did I read about Velazquez’s voiced concerns before the race. Thus, as Teresa noted in her excellent wrap-up at Brooklyn Backstretch, Breeders’ Cup Day 1 ended much as it begun, on a sour note (my term) that didn’t exactly make a favorable impression on race fans, on racing’s most ballyhooed day.

General Observations
• Rather than the recommended parking at Papa John’ Stadium we took a chance and got lucky, paying $20 to park unobstructed in a yard just one block over from the main gate. SERIOUSLY felt lucky as it was freaking COLD, and had no problems getting in and out.
• Generally polite, the crowd certainly exhibited a higher degree of alcohol inebriation than I’ve experienced at most athletic events—and that includes Flyers games at the old Spectrum. They weren’t nasty drunks, and I didn’t spot any fights or other typical macho bullshit—in fact, on the walk out, a very Southern drunk inquired of me “Honey, did you have a good time?” and proceed to tell me how he won $176 dollars on one race. Hopefully he remembers where he put that money in the morning.
• The ladies’ restroom on the far end of the second floor clubhouse is spectacular! My niece raved about the wide array of complimentary beauty products (hair spray, bobby pins, talc powder, etc.), sprays, cigarettes (don’t think those were free, but they were available), and various hard candies and chocolates. Of course, most impressively: no line!
• While the interior public areas (cafes, betting windows, etc.) were generally impressive, the outdoor seating areas of Churchill Downs are in need of a good cleaning and repainting. The white paint is not only dirty but chipped away on much of the steel girders in the old grandstand areas, where leaching rust spots are also visible. Maybe a little more spit and polish on the old place is needed before next year.

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Breeder’ Cup Friday

It’s Breeder’ Cup eve and all through the land handicappers are burning the midnight oil, with Bris and DRF past performances scattered about, and a pot of coffee (or perhaps something more substantial) on hand. I don’t know about you, but I always tend to overanalyze these races when good old-fashioned basics usually work best. Thus, I'm going with my first gut picks, and making an early night of it. Good luck, everyone!

Race 5: BC Marathon
In a race contested at 1-3/4 miles or nearly 14-furlongs, I just can’t get past Aidan O’Brien-trained Bright Horizon, even though he’s never raced on dirt. Yes, he’s by Galileo out of a Caerleon mare. Yet, his second dam Alligram is by Alydar’s son Alysheba—classic American dirt champion. Last out, Bright Horizon won the 16-furlong (2-mile) Irish Cesarewitch at the Curragh by 5-1/2 lengths, over 22 other competitors. He’s proven he can get the distance, which is more than some of the more promising hopes (like Prince Will I Am) can say. Don’t get me wrong: I would love to see Michelle Nihei’s horse win, as I’ve liked him ever since he finished a strong second behind Drosselmeyer in an allowance race back in January. He also appears to be a much stronger, smarter race horse than he was earlier this year, so I’m pegging him for a piece of the exotics. Also in the mix for me is a horse likely to be a huge longshot: Graham Motion-trained filly Million Seller. Yes, she trailed Life at Ten by nearly 12-length in the G2 Delaware Handicap, but she enters this race off a win and, most interestingly, ran second to Lord Kipling in a 16-furlong DIRT allowance optional claiming race at Saratoga last August. Look at that pedigree: by A.P. Indy out of a Sunday Silence mare who is a daughter of Maplejinsky, matriarch of the family that produced Sky Beauty, Pleasant Home, Pine Island and so on.
Trifecta box: 2-3-9

Race 6: BC Juvenile Fillies Turf
Once again, I’m going with a Euro trained by Aidan O’Brien, Together who finished just a neck behind undefeated White Moonstone (and ahead of Theyskens’ Theory) in the ENG-G1 Fillies’ Mile at Ascot. Also, love Jimmy Toner-trained Winter Memories, and settling on G3 Natalma winner New Normal for a trifecta spot.
Trifecta box: 7-10-13

Race 7: BC FM Sprint
This field just doesn’t thrill me, I’m sorry to say. I really liked Sara Louise last year, and though she disappointed on Pro-Ride, she came back to win the G2 Top Flight at Aqueduct in late November—only to disappear for nearly 10 months. I’ve lost interest in her. Ditto for Gabby’s Golden Gal who also has been off the scene since January. Informed Decision just doesn’t seem like the same winning closer this year. My pick here is Rightly So, who’s never finished out of the top three, and whose trainer Tony Dutrow has apparently spaced her races carefully this year. She looks ripe to peak for this. I’m a big fan of Champagne D’oro, and second-up should be ready to fire. Back on dirt where she was just nipped by Blind Luck in the G1 Kentucky Oaks, Evening Jewel should have plenty of speed to mow these down.
Trifecta box: 5-13-14

Race 8: BC Juvenile Fillies
I posted an in-depth analysis for this race over at ThoroFan’s website (click on embedded link), where I argue for European invader Theyskens’ Theory to win and why. Actually, I like both Bernardini fillies, the other being A Z Warrior, and am particularly keen on Believe in A.P. who I hope will still get a powerful ride by Garrett Gomez.
Trifecta box: 2-8-10

Race 9: BC FM Turf
There’s just no way to leave Midday out of the exotics, and probable repeat win. Yet I’m tipping Plumania who finished second to her in the FR-G1 Prix Vermeille. Last up, Plumania ran into all kinds of problems in the FR-G1 Arc de Triomphe, but I’m willing to forgive that. Éclair De Lune has stepped up and improved in every race she’s run this year, including a win in the G1 Beverly D. What a good story a top three finish would be out of her! And, may I say, although I think Forever Together is not the horse she once was, I love seeing Rosie Napravnik given a BC ride on this girl!
Trifecta box: 1-2-7

Race 10: BC Distaff (“Ladies’ Classic”)
The only time in her career that Unrivaled Belle didn’t finish first or second when in the G2 La Canada over Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride, so how can she be 8-1 on the morning line? She beat Rachel Alexandra in the G2 Latroienne here in April, but then finished second three consecutive times—behind Life at Ten twice and Malibu Prayer once. She may not win, but there’s no way I leave her out of the top three. I love the rivalry that has developed between Blind Luck and Havre de Grace, but I’m not sure the latter can get the distance, while the former will be lucky to have enough left in the tank after her 2010 campaign. I hope she does. Except for the G1 Personal Ensign, Life At Ten has been impressive this year, and has not lost at this distance in three tries.
Trifecta box: 1-8-10

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The Melbourne Cup

Just a quick post to plug my Melbourne Cup postings for newbies over at Hello Race Fans: “Ten Things You Should Know: Melbourne Cup” and “Things to Look For When Handicapping Aussie Racing.” Also did a bit of analysis over at Raceday360 on “The Race That Stops a Nation.”

Post time is tonight, midnight Eastern. 2008 runner-up Bauer is a vet scratch (hoof injury) as anticipated, and the track is currently rated a Slow 6—very good news for those who like soft turf. With a field of 23 remaining, I like to go through and eliminate those who (to my eyes) have zero chance of hitting the top three spots. That group would include (with saddlecloth number): Campanologist (2), Illustrious Blue (5), Mr. Medici (6), Tokai Trick (9), Buccellati (10), Harris Tweed (12), Master O’Reilly (14), Profound Beauty (16), Zavite (17), and Red Ruler (21). Most of these currently have poor form, major distance questions, lingering health questions, or loathe wet tracks.

If you’re betting here in the U.S. via Twinspires or such, you could do worse than bet the field horses (20-24), all lightweights, in your trifectas. That's right, one bet covers them all! These include Bart Cummings’ “other” horse Precedence (20) with Blake Shinn aboard—the same jockey who paired with Bart to win the master trainer’s 12th Melbourne Cup with Viewed in 2008. Linton (22) has yet to miss the top three this campaign, including a win in the 12-furlong G2 Herbert Power, and a nice second-place behind Maluckyday in Saturday’s G3 Lexus Stakes. Gai Waterhouse-trained Once Were Wild (23) won the AJC Oaks and gets an excellent barrier with post 11. And then there is Maluckyday (24) who has yet to miss a placing in eight races, including three impressively-dominating races in a row, the last being Saturday’s Lexus. Carrying a mere 113 pounds...oh, he looks a big chance!

Bart Cummings’ So You Think (3) is the glamour horse, and rightly so. A spectacularly gorgeous animal, he is in excellent form. The one and only query: can he get the two-mile distance? I love Gai’s other entry, Caulfield Cup winner Descarado (11) who will play “try-and-catch-me” and think yet another High Chaparral colt, Monaco Consul (15) could pull off a shocker placing, as could the fourth High Chaparral, Shoot Out (7).

The only European I like is Manighar (13), who can definitely get the distance. I know wise-guy horse Americain (8) is getting lots of play, but I just can’t get beyond how poorly he performed against U.S. turf horses last year.

So, when push comes to shove, what’s it all mean? Here’s my trifecta (boxed) play (not particularly in order—and I may change my mind closer to post):

7 Shoot Out
11 Descarado
20f (includes Precedence, Linton, Once Were Wild, Maluckyday)

However, I will say, some little voice inside just keeping saying "Precedence." Good luck!

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