Some terrific turf races on tap today, especially the big three at Arlington—the G1 Secretariat, G1 Beverly D and G1 Arlington Million—where the Euro invaders are getting a lot of respect. The G1 Sword Dancer at Saratoga looks short on substance—exactly why it sucks that there is no larger vision for horse racing this country, given that two important G1 turf races are being held on the same day in two different states.
In the Secretariat, I’m not on board with Treasure Beach who looks to want firmer ground than he’ll likely get on Saturday. That Irish Derby victory wasn’t against the strongest field, and he really didn’t look good in his last race, the FR-G1 Grand Prix de Paris. The DRF’s Marcus Hersh reports that he worked up quite a lather Friday morning, something that just doesn’t strike me as particularly positive, so I’m taking a stand against him. It’s actually the Americans who look best to me here, especially Banned and Willcox Inn. Garret Gomez has had good success with Banned, including a facile win in the G2 American Turf, and he appears to like soft turf as well as firm. I’ve been on the Willcox Inn bandwagon since before last year’s Breeders’ Cup, and there’s no doubt he loves his home track. I’m also not counting out Derby Kitten for a piece, now that he’s back on turf after his ill-advised dirt run in the Kentucky Derby. Also of interest is Suntracer, second behind Willcox Inn in his last two outings, but one who should appreciate stretching out to 10 furlongs. His half brother Free Fighter (Out of Place) won multiple times at 12 furlongs on turf (G3 Stars & Stripes, G3 Louisville Handicap), and this son of Kitten’s Joy has defeated Banned earlier this year; soft turf will be to his advantage.
In the Beverly D, I do like Stacelita who didn’t get the best ride in the G1 United Nations last out, yet still finished a close third to Teaks North and Chinchon. She likes it soft, and the distance suits her. One must respect Michael de Kock and River Jetez, but she would prefer firmer going; if she wins, give a HUGE boost to Wigmore Hall in the Million (although I really like his chances regardless). Of the Americans, Fantasia appeals to me, not only because she’s trained by Jonathan Sheppard, but especially due to her G3 Modesty victory last out. From the far outside post, Never Retreat may pop a surprise—she’s an absolute mud-lark—but the distance is a query. Still, her dam is a half-sister to 12-furlong G2 Orchid victress Sweetest Chant, second dam of Distorted Humor. I’m also a huge fan of Upperline, and although she’s never attempted the distance, I think she has a big chance.
For the Million, I’m betting on Wigmore Hall to repeat his strong performance behind Paddy O’Prado in last year’s Secretariat. Cape Blanco would be an appropriate victor, but likely too short a price, especially the softer the ground. However, French-invader Zack Hall looks like an upset chance cutting back in distance—and I think I can get a good price on him. What a cool story it would be if Mission Approved won! He’s been working well in advance of this, so if he gets the lead and then Jose Espinoza slows him down, he could be dangerous. I’ve never been a Gio Ponti fan so I can’t get excited about him, but have no doubt he’ll be in the top three—anything less would be a shocker.
In the G1 Sword Dancer at Saratoga, I find it interesting that Bill Mott is putting Drosselmeyer back on turf, where he began his 2-year-old campaign. The 12-furlong distance certainly isn’t a question and I love Jose Lezcano, so a big chance to upset. The “other” Distorted Humor colt, Boisterous intrigues me, especially considering his form against Cape Blanco and Gio Ponti. His second dam also once ran third behind 1988 Sword Dancer victress Anka Germania which I take as a sign (yes, one of those intuitive things that surely makes me a joke as a handicapper, but...). I’m still concerned about Teaks North getting the distance, and now 6-year-old Winchester may have lost a step or two.
Val,
ReplyDeleteIt seems my support of BOISTEROUS felled your chances with him ;-)! I thought his big effort vs. CAPE and GIO would have him primed for a big effort...sent off favored it seems we weren't alone on the Phipps runner's back. I'll give him a pass, thinking he regressed off a lifetime best. WINCHESTER is improving with time, just like his sire THEATRICAL. The Allen Paulson owned race horse/sire won his first G.I at five and liked it so much he won five of them in the same year, finishing 2nd in another, and 3rd in the Arlington Million en route to Champion Older Male honors.
You were right to bet against TREASURE BEACH as he worked harder than a 1-2 favorite should have to when winning the Secretariat. However, I will point out to take reports on appearance, when schooling or on the track, by U.S. writers with a grain of salt. While that would be a negative for some horses, that may be his usual. ZAYARID was so game in defeat and BANNED ran a winning race against the rest of the field, just a cut below the Euros.
STACELITA is a special mare and Chad Brown must be thanking the racing gods she came into his barn. A multiple G.I winner, G.I winner at 3,4, and 5!!! Personally, I thought Bravo got her beat in the UN Inv. Ramon gave her a ground-saving ride but was lucky to get through...I'm sure Rosario's kicking himself today. It's not acceptable to give up the rail when on the lead in the stretch...I've heard Tony Black say time and again that getting beaten when a horse comes around just means he/she was best. When they sneak up the rail, it's operator error.
In the Million, I thought CAPE BLANCO vulnerable due to the double ship to the U.S. and picked GIO PONTI. Dominguez rode a poor race on that champion, steadying twice and getting shut off the second time when turning into the lane. The trouble was equal to the two lengths he was defeated. I'm on a campaign of one to get Gomez back on GIO PONTI. The top five were well clear of the rest and your WIGMORE HALL (4th) ran on well. He had just as much trouble as GIO and was finishing fastest at the end.
Great races bring are fodder for conversation before and after the fact. I didn't comment on your prior post, but I will. Thought-provoking as always.