Victoria Derby Day Card at Flemington

What I love about spring carnival time in Australia are the full race cards packed with stakes action. Last week it was Moonee Valley with the G1 Cox Plate. Tonight beginning at 8:20 p.m. Eastern in the U.S. (Saturday in Australia), it’s Flemington that hosts nine group events including four G1s. Right now, the track is rated a “Dead 4” so let’s take a look at the main contenders with that in mind—and join the usual crowd later tonight on Twitter (@FilliesFirst):

G3 Carbine Stakes—Race 1

The topweight favorite is Darley’s regally-bred Galah (Redoute’s Choice) whose Distorted Humor dam Rinky Dink captured the G1 Australasian Oaks. He’s already a listed winner, and given his breeding stretching out to a mile for the first time should not be an issue. The third and fourth-place finishers from his last race return here as well, with Highly Recommended enjoying a better weight advantage, dropping two pounds. It may not be quite enough, but this Fastnet Rock colt comes from a family of winners, including half-sisters G1 Emirates victress Sky Cuddle and G3 Tattersalls Cup winner Sky Love, as well as G2 runner-up full-brother Undeniably. Sentimentally, I’ll be rooting for another Redoute’s Choice colt, Cross of Gold; his second dam is a daughter of Foolish Pleasure, plus he is also a half-brother to champion Hasna, 2003 winner of Australia’s 2-year-old Triple Crown. The only other serious contender is the field is Meethaq who actually won at this distance last out—he’s a half-brother to the multiple G1 winner Mnemosyne.

UPDATE: Long stretch run and 1-2 favorite Galah needed every inch of it, just nipping 16-1 Highly Recommended at the wire. 18-1 Saint Etienne was also up very close for third.

G3 Lexux Stakes—Race 2

Big field, with topweight Tullamore returning a mere week after his runner-up finish to defending Melbourne Cup winner Americain in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup [oops, he’s now scratched]. Green Moon finished just ahead of him in the G1 Caulfield Cup, so it should be an interesting rematch. I’m still on board with Anudjawun who finished fourth behind Americain and Tullamore last week—now he enjoys a drop in weight, from 121 to 118, which may not sound like much, but with Tullamore still toting 126, and Green Moon going up from 117 to 123, it may just make the difference. He’s also placed in the top three (though never won) all three times he’s raced on this track. The mare Midnight Martini drew a horrible barrier position (14), but the granddaughter of G1 New Zealand Oaks winner Sawatdee has won over this track, ran very sharp fourth ahead of Anudjawun in the G2 Herbert Power before running third most recently in the G3 David Jones Cup. A win here guarantees her a start in Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup.

UPDATE: After leading early, Green Moon totally fell apart, and 7-1 Niwot quickly took advantage, pulling away from the field. 11-1 Macedonian second, and 18-1 Anudjawun third. At 50-1, Raffaello fleshed out a massive superfecta.

G2 Wakeful Stakes—Race 3

Undefeated Atlantic Jewel won the G1 Thousand Guineas with incredible ease last out, and has already won carrying 128 lbs. like she does here; the only query is the 9-furlong distance, but being out a Zabeel mare hints it shouldn’t be a problem. Four fillies enter off the same listed race going this distance, with the best of them the winner Gliding. Her half-brother is 5-time G1 winner Eremain, and with master Bart Cummings, you can believe she’ll be primed for this race. Sure to be running late is New Zealand-bred Dowager Queen, recently G1-placed in the Flight Stakes; she must be an iron horse, having already run 15 times since last December 28 (but did enjoy a nearly 3-month break). For a longshot chance, I like Gioe in the top-four after her bad-luck efforts most recently; her G1 runner-up dam Magical Miss also won the G2 Memsie. Hands-down, the Cinderella story here would be a win or placing by yet-unplaced La Dolce Diva, daughter of 3-time Melbourne Cup victress Makybe Diva.

UPDATE: Wow, Atlantic Jewel is a serious filly! Easy win at 2-5, with 35-1 Rahveel second, 5-1 Dowager Queen third and 7-1 Gliding fourth.

G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes—Race 4

Unusual for American fans to witness, Flemington’s sprint races are run over a straight track—and that is something even Australian horses sometimes find hard to do well. Sepoy shouldn’t have a problem here, given that he’s already won twice over this track—not to mention captured nine of his 10 lifetime starts thus far. It’s hard to look beyond him, but any rain affecting the track favors Hot Snitzel and good performances earlier in the card by Galah and/or Highly Recommended would only lead further credence to the abilities of Masthead. For longer shots, consider Unique Quality who ran a very game third to Sepoy over this track last out, and the lightly-raced Zamorar who really moves up in class for this one (he’s related to Foolish Pleasure through his damsire Scenic).

UPDATE: Sepoy just lasted over Foxwedge, with 70-1 Satin Shoes just ahead of 45-1 Zamorar.

G1 Mackinnon Stakes—Race 5

A number of likely Melbourne Cup runners in here, including recent G1 Caulfield Cup winning mare Southern Speed. The other mare Lights of Heaven has yet to live up to her huge promise this campaign, but a good barrier position and the jockey-trainer combination of Luke Nolen-Peter Moody could get it done here—top fours at the very least. Off his third-place finish behind Pinker Pinker in the G1 Cox Plate last week, Rekindled Interest is a big chance. 7-year-old Wall Street has been running well of late—could the old boy pop a big one here? Umm, not if the reports of mild colic this week are true, I’m afraid. Not beyond the realm of possibility. Irish-bred Glass Harmonium disappointed in the Cox Plate, but the track may have been his downfall—he finished a narrow second to December Draw in the G1 Turnbull recently at Flemington. Even though he’s a last-out G1 winner, The Verminator gets a HUGE weight jump, from 115 to 130 pounds—I can’t imagine him in the top four.

UPDATE: Glass Harmonium won, with 18-1 Mourayan second and post-time favorite Rekindled Interest third. Superfecta fleshed out with 5-1 mare Southern Speed.

G1 AAMI Victoria Derby—Race 6

All of the money is on Manawanui, and rightly so—however, I’m sticking with Collar as a possible upset threat. I hated the way he was taken to the lead early at Moonee Valley, but his regular jockey Nick Hall is back aboard, so I expect a more even performance out of him here. Niagara appears nicely-bred for this distance (by Encosta De Lago, out of a Fusaichi Pegasus mare), but his far-outside 18 barrier post sucks. Costly Commitment finished just behind Niagara last out, and has demonstrated improvement with each start; by Encosta De Lago out of an Octagonal mare, he should have no problem with the distance (good barrier post too!). Darley sends out listed Geelong Classic winner Induna whose full-sister Camarilla won the G1 Sires’ Produce Stakes; among her many nice performances, their dam Camarena swept both the G1 Queensland Derby (2400m) and G2 Queensland Guineas (1600m) in 1999. The softer the going, the better Induna’s chances. Last out G3 winner Sabrage breaks from a difficult post (16) and I’m concerned about his distance limitations, being by sprinter Charge Forward; his dam Galroof ran second in both the G1 Doomben Cup (2200m) and G1 Queensland Derby (2400m), so I suppose it’s possible, but his half-brother Pinnacles topped out at one mile, placing third in the G1 Doncaster (1600m). There’s definitely quality there, though.

UPDATE: Extremely roughly run race…Sangster narrowly wins over Induna, with Sabrage up for third. Longshot Zabeelionaire (35-1) fleshed out superfecta. Manawanui nowhere near the top finishers.

G1 Myer Classic—Race 7

Wow! Huge field of quality filly and mare milers here, beginning with 5-time G1 winner and top weight More Joyous; she won the G2 Tristarc last out, but niggling concern over recent comments by jock Nash Rawiller that she’s not the same powerhouse as she once was. She may be favored, but there are plenty of others here of interest, including 3-year-old G1-placed Mosheen who's getting a huge weight advantage over the older mares here, carrying only 108 pounds (17-18 lbs. less than every other entry). Personally, I'm thrilled (but surprised) to see the return of Banchee, a multiple G1 winner in New Zealand last year who last I heard was off to the breeding shed. Guess that didn’t happen, as she’s back here in a very tough spot (and bad barrier). At a price, Dysphonia could surprise, as she’s been progressing nicely this campaign, as has Response who also loves this track. I’m a huge fan of Sacred Choice, but not sure the 6-year-old isn’t a tad disappointing this spring.

UPDATE: Hurtle Myrtle wins, with Sacred Choice second, and Dysphonia a fast-closing third. More Joyous, Banchee both disappointing.

G2 Salinger Stakes—Race 8

Another straight track sprint, Stirling Grove could pull a shocker after his last out third-place performance behind Black Caviar and Karuta Queen; he’s 2 for 2 over this track, and this being his third start of the spring could be a revelation. Given her current form vs. Cox Plate winner Pinker Pinker, not to mention Sepoy and Curtana (who’s also in here), Mid Summer Music looks extremely good for a top two finish at least, as does Sister Madly. Rarefied also appears a strong top 4 chance. Loving the fillies and mares overall!

G3 Tab.Com.Au (Chatham) Stakes—Race 9

Turning back to 7-furlongs looks just the thing Toorak Toff needs, though he’s yet to place in two attempts over the Flemington straight track. Thankgodyou'rehere should likewise enjoy the cut back in distance (not to mention class). Doubtful Jack loves the track, but was so thoroughly thrashed by Black Caviar last week, it’s hard to visualize a miraculous return-to-form (it’s been awhile for this boy). On the other hand, Launay is undefeated in three starts at Flemington, and appears a real top four chance. Sentimentally, I’m on board Torio’s Quest, a damside descendent of Foolish Pleasure—a devastating G2 winner back in June,  hopefully he’s back on track.

Getting the Inside Scoop

Just ask my journalism colleagues—dealing with “new media” issues in the classroom, not to mention in real life, is a bitch. With today’s students so technologically savvy, it’s actually become harder than ever to get them to understand that not all the information they encounter online is truth. Critical thinking is nearly a lost art form, as we’ve become lazy when it comes to consuming, processing and reacting to information. Still, for all its fault, the internet is truly a wondrous thing, isn’t it?

A fascinating recent development has been the online engagement of trainers with racing fans, via Twitter and personal blogs. Want to know the condition of Coolmore runners or upcoming racing plans? Trainer Aidan O’Brien relays information to his wife Annemarie who tweets @aobballydoyle. Also among trainers worldwide who regularly tweet substantive information are Peter Moody (@MoodyRacing) in Australia and Carolyn Costigan (@arravaleracing) in Canada. American trainers tweeting are rarer. While not particularly prolific, Bob Baffert occasionally tweets as @Midnightlute, but most of the big name trainers are silent, leading to sometimes sarcastic, nearly always amusing, faux-accounts for Steve Asmussen (@SteveyAsmussen) and Todd Pletcher (@NotTheToddster).

For more in-depth writing, personal blogs serve a valuable purpose, and without a doubt the queen in this regard is Australia’s renowned lady trainer Gai Waterhouse who’s been blogging on her website since 2007. A wonderful mix of updates, impressions and even controversial comments, Gai is an engaging (and dedicated) writer, posting lengthy entries nearly every day. Really, if you want to learn something about Australian racing and training practices, her blog is a must-read.

Another I highly-recommend (with obvious bias) is Gina Rarick, an American trainer based in Maisons-Laffitte, France, she’s been blogging at Gallop France since 2008 and is a member of our TURF collaborative.

While American horse racing fan bloggers are plentiful, that’s not the case among American trainers. The most revealing site is Graham Motion’s Herringswell Stables, which regularly posts stable news, although not written by the man himself. However, in his homeland of Great Britain, a plethora of trainers pen their thoughts regularly on their websites, including top trainers like Mark Johnston, who has been recording his “Bletherings” since 2009 (archives available here). Also prominent and free with stable news are Luca Cumani, although it’s not clear that the trainer himself is writing the material. Others who clearly are putting down their own very personal thoughts include:

• John Berry, a Newmarket-based trainer since 1995, he took over Beverley House Stables in 1997 and has been blogging at Stable Life since 2006.
• Julia Feilden, a former racing secretary and English amateur jockey, she began training in 2005 at Exning outside Newmarket and blogging in 2010.
• John Best, a Kent-based trainer who posts an interesting weekly video blog update on his runners, although it’s not archived.
• Amy Weaver, a former assistant trainer for Michael Bell, she’s been out on her own since 2008, and is based at Newmarket. She also regularly tweets @amyweaverracing.

I don’t have any particular insight into why British trainers feel more comfortable than American trainers in penning their thoughts, but it’s honestly quite refreshing—chiefly for fans and horseplayers always hungry for inside information.

Examining the Cox Plate Card

Australia’s Spring Carnival action moves to Moonee Valley this weekend with seven group races, including the prestigious G1 Cox Plate. An oddly-designed sharp-turn anti-clockwise track, Moonee Valley usually requires some previous success over it so take that into consideration when handicapping. My thoughts on Saturday’s (late Friday night here in the U.S.) races, considering the projected “Dead” track condition (but I reserve the right to change my mind too, so follow along on Twitter!):

In race 1, a maiden special weight sprint for juveniles, first-time starter Balmodena (Good Journey) looks promising; her half-brother Masthead finished third behind the excellent colt Sepoy and filly Hallowell Belle in the AUS-G1 Blue Diamond as a 2-year-old—and actually finished second in this very race last year. Balmodena has trialed twice in preparation for this. Go The Cats (Purrealist) should be of interest to Americans—her second dam is fantastic multiple-G1 winner Frans Valentine, making her dam is a full-sister to FR-G1 placed With Fascination and half-sister to multiple-G1 winner With Anticipation.
UPDATE: Go The Cats was a pre-race scratch, while Balmodena a gate scratch. Not a good start.

Listed Essendon Jeep Stakes (1600m) Race 2

Bliss Street (Flying Spur) is the most accomplished filly in the race, winner of the G3 1000 Guineas Prelude little over a month ago, then runner-up to Mosheen in the G2 Edward Manifold. Last out, however, she underwent a vet exam after finishing ninth of 11 in the G1 Thousand Guineas. This being her sixth start this campaign, and off that questionable effort, it’s hard to back her here, especially as topweight and a previous poor effort over this track. Maiden Torah (Spinning World) just missed last out over this track, and is already a listed race runner-up. The trainer-jockey combination of Peter Moody-Luke Nolen gives her a big shot to break through with a win, even from far outside post position.
UPDATE: Torah wins at 6-1. Bliss Street game to stay on for second.

G3 Red Anchor Stakes/1300 Australia Stakes (1200m) Race 3

While Karuta Queen (Not a Single Doubt) was no match for Black Caviar two weeks ago, she should be more than enough against these. The Moody-Nolen colt Beckon (Charge Forward) steps up in class; out of the G2-placed mare Chatelaine, this boy is a full-brother to G1 winning mare Headway. Miss Stellabelle (Dehere) won the G3 Champagne Stakes over this track most recently, meriting a solid chance as well.
UPDATE: No problem for Karuta Queen at 8-5; Miss Stellabelle second. Beckon out of top fours.

G2 AAMI Vase (2040m) Race 4

The small field of six features a hot favorite, Manawanui (Oratorio) who was narrowly beaten by the terrific Helmet last out in the G1 Caulfield Guineas. However, he’s never traveled this far, which is why I’ll be looking closely at the New Zealand-bred Collar (O’reilly) who won the listed Doncaster Stakes second-up this campaign, but as topweight finished third last out and underwent a vet exam. His half-brother Larry’s Never Late (Pentire) won at 2400m, even finishing a narrow third in the G1 Queensland Derby in 2009; his dam Laebeel finished second to Sky Heights in the 1999 G1 Caulfield Cup.
UPDATE: 1-5 Manawanui proved he could get the distance; 3-1 Collar runner-up.

G2 Schweppes Stakes (1200m) Race 5

Only four geldings are willing to take on undefeated Black Caviar (Bel Esprit), the best of which is 3-time G1 winner Scenic Blast (Scenic), back on Aussie soil after campaigning last year in the United States for John Shirreffs. He hasn’t raced for nearly 11 months so defeating Black Caviar would be an extraordinary achievement. Betting the super mare makes it 15 straight victories.
UPDATE: No contest. The Queen won with such amazing ease. Scenic Blast in an impossible spot first back, finished last of four that ran.

G2 Moonee Valley Cup (2500m) Race 6

A prep for the G1 Melbourne Cup, some quality horses go in this race including last year’s Melbourne Cup winner Americain (Dynaformer). Sorry, but there’s no way I’m backing him. Gai Waterhouse-trained Tullamore (Savabeel) quickly backs up off an impressive third-place finish in last weekend’s G1 Caulfield Cup, and I really like the trajectory of Shewan (Blevic) who posted an impressive win in the G2 Herbert Powers last out. The master Bart Cummings trains the German invader Illo (Tertullian) who makes his first start since July; a listed winner last out, he finished second to Elle Shadow in the G3 Grosser Preis der Wirtschaft—and that G1 placed mare subsequently finished third in the G1 Grosser Dallmayr-Preis. Last year’s Caulfield Cup runner-up Harris Tweed (Montjeu) just hasn’t been the same horse this year, so it’s hard to back him. However, longshot chance Anudjawun (Yamanin Vital) put in a nice fifth-place effort in the G2 Herbert Powers; his dam Perceptible was a G2 runner-up in the 2000m Awapuni Gold Cup. Finally, gallant 7-year-old mare Swooper (Black Hawk) attempts group company for the first time, but she loves this track, having won 4 of 7 efforts.
UPDATE: Warning to other bettors: don't let emotions get in the way of betting. I'm not entirely sure why, but I've always had a hatred for Americain. So, he wins. Followed in order by Tullamore, Illo, Anudjawun and Shewan, which ultimately formed my superfecta. Don't you hate when that happens? Blah!

G2 Crystal Mile (1600m) Race 7

Luen Yat Forever (Honours List) totally flopped in last year’s Cox Plate, but enters this race off a nice third-place finish in the G1 Toorak last out. G1-placed Triple Elegance (Mossman) faced much tougher last out—but has never run counter-clock wise; this could be an interesting outing. Ginga Dude (Istidaad) shorts up after finishing third last out in the listed Cranbourne Cup, and he won a race at this distance over this course recently. Lightly-raced Silver Grecian finished sixth (but only 3.5 lengths back) in his last effort, the G1 Rupert Clarke. Last year, He’s Remarkable (Pentire) narrowly lost to Cox Plate favorite Jimmy Choux in the NZ-G1 2000 Guineas; after a 5-month break, he’s come back this campaign with two straight wins in New Zealand—not certain he’s up to this class. Wily veteran Danleigh (Mujahid) won the G1 Chipping Norton back in March, but hasn’t had much success since and carrying topweight might be too much.
UPDATE: Bit of a shocker with 4-1 Testa My Patience winning over game 40-1 Hawks Bay. Post-time favorite He's Remarkable (3-1) finished third, and 11-1 Happy Trails was fourth. Very disappointing race by some of the more seasoned horses.

G1 Cox Plate (2040m) Race 8

Disappointed to hear that Descarado (High Chaparral) is out of Saturday’s Cox Plate, I’m even more conflicted about whom to root for here. Darley’s 3-year-old Helmet (Exceed and Excel) with his huge weight allowance will take lots of money, although he’s never run beyond one mile (Uncle Mo comparisons abound); by a champion sprinter, stamina is found in his damline, through Singspiel and Mill Reef. If Manawanui performs well in the AAMI Vase, I’ll take him seriously. On his achievements already, New Zealand invader Jimmy Choux (Thorn Park) certainly rates consideration regardless of track condition. He has form against Lion Tamer (Storming Home), but that one threw a clunker last out. Rekindled Interest (Redoute’s Choice) boasts two victories in three starts over this track, including the G2 Dato'tan Chin Nam Stakes in September. All that said, it’s the mares to which I’m looking for value: King’s Rose (Redoute’s Choice), Avienus (Reset), Pinker Pinker (Reset) and Secret Admirer (Dubawi). All four come in off G1 tries: Secret Admirer and Pinker Pinker finished 1-2 in the G1 Epsom, King’s Rose ran a narrow second in the G1 Toorak, and Avienus just missed against Descarado in the G1 Caulfield Stakes. Avienus is actually the only horse to return from last year’s Cox Plate, where she finished sixth of 10 with Craig Williams aboard—I much prefer her recent efforts with Brad Rawiller aboard. If pressed, I’d probably have to say Secret Admirer appeals to me most (even though she’s never run counter-clockwise); her unraced dam is a half-sister to 2600m G1 winner Donegal Mist, who also won the G2 Moonee Valley Cup here over 2600m. Interestingly for Americans too, Secret Admirer is cross-bred 3 x 3 to Seeking the Gold.
UPDATE: So much for taking my own address about not playing based on emotion. I've always had tremendous success betting Pinker Pinker so I bet her across the board just in case...and she won, at 25-1! Wow! Helmet's distance limitations kicked in as he faded, and Jimmy Choux finished second, with Rekindled Interest third and 35-1 longshot Wall Street in fourth.

G3 Inglis Mile (1600m) Race 9

Finally, if you make it this far, More Strawberries (More Than Ready) returns off a disappointing effort in the G1 Epsom, as does Raspberries (Lonhro)—talk about a fruity hunch quinella! For my money, So Pristine (Zabeel) looks to be rounding into form at exactly the right time, although topweight—and last year’s winner—Lady Lynette (Ladoni) can’t be ignored.

Despite Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra: Where the U.S. Is Severely Lagging Behind

As opposed to all the negative developments in horse racing in recent years, perhaps none is more pleasing (not to mention infectious) for fans than the success enjoyed by fillies and mares racing in open company races at the highest level. Sunday’s shocking upset victory by Sarah Lynx in the G1 Canadian International—arguably the most important non-restricted race run in Canada—only further fueled those flames. So, just how dominating has the “fairer sex” become racing worldwide? Over at my other blog Fillies First, since 2009 I’ve been maintaining a spreadsheet of wins and placings by fillies and mares in graded stakes company around the world, and the numbers suggest that their accomplishments are only growing.

In 2009, fillies and mares won, placed or showed in group/graded open company races 321 times, with 92 occurring at the highest (G1) level, including 35 G1 victories.

In 2010, fillies and mares won, placed or showed in group/graded open company races 380 times, with 112 occurring at the highest (G1) level, including 42 G1 victories.

In 2011, with still a full two months of racing yet to occur including the Breeders’ Cup, fillies and mares won, placed or showed in group/graded open company races 388 times, with 128 occurring at the highest (G1) level, including 44 G1 victories.

Impressive numbers, to be sure, but it’s the story behind the numbers that’s even more revealing. Just how dominating have fillies and mares been in open company races at the highest level worldwide this year thus far? Consider this: four times in G1 races, they have swept the top three placings—and we’re talking about some of the most prestigious races in the world with full fields:

• FR-G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Danedream, Shareta, Snow Fairy) 16 runners
• FR-G1 Prix Jacques Le Marois (Immortal Verse, Goldikova, Sahpresa) 12 runners
• AUS-G1 Epsom Handicap (Secret Admirer, Pinker Pinker, Red Tracer) 17 runners
• AUS-G1 Newmarket Handicap (Black Caviar, Crystal Lily, Beaded) 11 runners

While not graded because it’s restricted to sales graduates, the still-prestigious Magic Millions 2-year-old Classic (worth A$2 million), was also swept by fillies (Karuta Queen, Combat Kitty, Schiffer) in a field of 16. Mares also captured the top three positions in nine other G2 or G3 events in Australia, England, France, India, Ireland, New Zealand and Zimbabwe.

Of the seven races thus far contested in the 9-race Global Sprint Challenge for 2011, two have been won by fillies:

• AUS-G1 Lightning Stakes (Black Caviar)
• JPN-G1 Sprinters Stakes (Curren Chan)

Arguably the most prestigious race in South Africa, the G1 Durban July, was won by a filly (Igugu), as was Australia’s classic G1 Caulfield Cup (Southern Speed). Five times this year Black Caviar has captured open company G1 events in Australia while Arc winner Danedream also twice won open company G1 races in Germany. In Australia, Shamrocker pulled off the G1 AJC Australian Derby-Australian Guineas double, while in India, Moonlight Romance won both the G1 Indian Turf Invitation Cup and G1 Indian Derby, and in New Zealand, juvenile Anabandana captured both the G1 Diamond Stakes and G1 Manawatu Sires’ Produce.

Other notable achievements:

• Two fillies (Nayarra and Rose Eglanteria) ran one-two in the only G1 juvenile stakes race in Italy, the Premio Gran Criterium.
• In Australia’s 2-year-old Triple Crown races, juvenile fillies race second and third in both the Golden Slipper (Mosheen, Elite Falls) and Champagne (Pane in the Glass, Fast and Sexy), while Pane in the Glass finished third in the AJC Sires Produce.

By a huge margin, Australia leads the world in wins and placings in open company races (115), followed by New Zealand (42), France (42), India (40), Japan (26), England (25), Ireland (20), and Germany (12). These fillies and mares won at distances from 5 furlongs (1000 meters) to 15 furlongs (3000 meters), with 4-year-old Motrice even running third in the ENG-G2 Doncaster Cup at 18 furlongs (3600 meters). Obviously, most of these races were on turf, but even on dirt Life for Sale won the 11-furlong ARG-G1 Gran Premio Provincia de Buenos Aires en route to winning the La Plata Triple Crown.

And in the United States, how are we faring? There’s no nice way to say this—we are pathetic. Although this year we’ve enjoyed Havre de Grace winning the G1 Woodward, Keertana winning the G3 Louisville Handicap, Maristar running second in the G3 Washington Park Handicap, and Stacelita placing third in the G1 United Nations, we’re still pitifully locked into a myopic mindset when it comes to challenging open company events. Come on, folks! The time has come for U.S. racing to actually come up to the level of other countries in truly challenging the best of the best.

Why the Breeders' Cup is Bad for Horse Racing

Let me preface my comments by saying that, like many of you, I’ll certainly be tuned in to the upcoming Breeders’ Cup—it’s two solid days of horse racing, and as a true fan, I appreciate seeing full, competitive fields as well as enjoying the expected (and, especially, the unexpected) results. That said, I firmly believe that the Breeders Cup as an entity—not to mention conceptually—has done far more damage to the sport than it has done good in recent years, and nothing would make me happier than to see it end. Strong words, I know, but born from frustration knowing what the sport once was—and where it unfortunately seems to be heading. Yes, it creates a clear focus, an unambiguous public relations event, a “world championship” (although that’s a highly-suspect claim, and not in the least bit accurate) for the sport, its fans and the general public, at a time when horse racing’s popularity is plummeting. Thus, one could argue that any exposure is a good thing. I beg to differ.

The crux of my argument: by focusing entirely on getting a horse to the Breeders’ Cup and the subsequent promise of an Eclipse award for winning, the traditional concept of a “campaign” for the best horses has been dumped in favor of a “preparation.” During the year, instead of conditioning and building stamina and fitness through racing, horses are strategically placed in relatively widely-spaced races, often resulting in being less raced overall—and thus resulting in subsequently smaller fields for graded  races, much to the chagrin of fans. While not being able to see the best horses race more often during the year may be frustrating, it’s also corrosive to the sport overall as there are less compelling reasons to watch (and wager on) big races. Fans and horseplayers want to see competitive races year-around, not just over the course of two days. And “Win-and-You’re-In” races hardly fit the bill, as they too are tragically underwhelming in most cases.

From my point of view, most lamentable of all is the loss of importance once placed on traditional contests like the Brooklyn Handicap and Philip H. Iselin Stakes—races that were once revered as the tests of champions, but now hardly attract “B”-level horses. We may no longer be the agrarian America where farmers gathered to race their steeds against one another, and breeding was truly about improving the breed, not about making as much profit as possible by producing brilliant yet fragile young speedsters. However, that narrative about who we were—mixed with the pure visual sensory experience of watching racing in person—is exactly what makes horse racing exciting and unique as a sport.  

There are those that may scoff at such sentimentality, or veneration for history; certainly, in the rush to the future, it’s convenient these days to ignore the past. However, it is the sport’s history that is, arguably, its strength. As much as baseball (apple pie and Chevrolet) defines us as a country, horse racing fills our collective psyche with nostalgia. Urban dwellers going to the track to breathe in nature, seeing and touching our equine heroes, glimpsing the rich and famous enjoying the races, collectively celebrating great performances and compelling stories—these are what once made the track a great place to be, and still could today. Of course not to the same degree as in the past as technology makes it far easier to watch and wager from home, but shouldn’t we be concerned about improving the on-track experience as much as the at-home experience? It starts with better quality racing throughout the year, not just one weekend in November.

Instead of focusing so much money and attention on the Breeders’ Cup and a singular race, wouldn’t it be more beneficial (not to mention compelling) to invest in developing a series of championship races? Once there was the Triple Tiara for 3-year-old fillies, and New York once recognized the Handicap Triple Crown. I’m sure some entity could sit down and come up with a series of races in each category of dirt, turf and synthetic surfaces that would serve as a truer championship, forcing owners to actually run their horses against the best on a more regular basis rather than dodging the competition. Appropriately high monetary prizes would be awarded for those horses accumulating points from racing in each series, much like the Global Sprint Challenge does. As there already exists plenty of high-quality year-end races, we could just do away with the Breeders’ Cup races altogether too.

Besides, hasn’t the Breeders’ Cup already lessened its own “championship” importance, diluted its own racing by adding too many specialty races over the course of two days? We didn’t need a Filly & Mare Sprint, let alone a Marathon (which is barely a staying race at all) or Juvenile Turf races, and we certainly don’t need a Juvenile Sprint. By carding so many races, the Breeders’ Cup is only obliging breeders and owners concerned about gaining that “Breeders’ Cup Champion” label in order to promote a stallion or shuttle their horse off far too early to the breeding shed. It’s not interested in actually hosting the best possible races and it’s mostly certainly not interested in supporting the sport overall. The Breeders’ Cup exists today to promote itself, and that egocentrism needs to end for the long-term benefit of the sport.

"Last-Out PID" Handicapping Angle for Keeneland

On Keeneland’s opening day, the “last-out at PID” handicapping angle worked well for me—with Hoofit ($25.60) winning the G3 Phoenix, and Gutsy Call ($12.40) taking race 10. Neither horse should have been so underestimated. Well-bred Gutsy Call is a half brother to G1 Donn victor Albertus Maximus (also  BC Dirt Mile winner), while Hoofit had an excellent form line from his 2-year-old New Zealand races last April. He finished second—less than a length back—to Lion Tamer in the listed Champagne Stakes at Ellerslie. Lion Tamer went on to win both the AUS-G1 AAMI Victoria Derby and the AUS-G1 Underwood Stakes. Here’s video of the race:

 

In the NZ-G1 Manawatu Sires Produce Stakes, Hoofit finished fourth, but just a nose behind third-place finisher Jimmy Choux, subsequent 5-time NZ-G1 winner including the New Zealand Derby and 2000 Guineas—and a serious threat in the upcoming AUS-G1 Cox Plate. 

We’ll see how this angle plays out—on Friday, all but one PID horse finished in the top four: Gracious (4th) and Arboria (6th) in race 1; Indian Fog (2nd) in race 2; and Touch Screen (4th) in race 4. Until it’s disproven, I’m going to strongly consider the “last-out at PID” angle for all synthetic track races at Keeneland on Saturday. With that in mind, who should we watch out for?

Race 2:

This will be a serious PID angle test—Saturday’s Miracle (Any Given Saturday) ran well enough early, but seriously collapsed in the stretch to finish fifth, 15 lengths back, in her last race. She is a three-quarter sister to G3 Jersey Shore runner-up Spin Master; her second dam Header Card captured the G1 Oak Leaf as a juvenile, while another family member is dual-G1 winner Sassy Image so sprinting is in her blood. Calvin Borel takes the reins.

Race 3:

Al Muhtasib (Distorted Humor) is in for the $80k tag in this optional claiming allowance event; he last finished sixth in the PID Mile after being claimed from Shadwell by Merrill Scherer. Eagle Poise (Empire Maker) ran second to Anak Nakal in a PID allowance race last out; this will be his second start off a long layoff.

Race 6 (G2 TCA Stakes):

Naturally, off their performances in the PID Masters, Musical Romance (Concorde’s Tune) and Shotgun Gulch (Thunder Gulch) must be considered, but, honestly, a win (or placing) by either Promised Mandate (Full Mandate) or Dances With Ashley (Wildcat Heir) would be a shock. As an aside, I’m looking forward to the return of Rapport (Songandaprayer) after near one year off. 

Race 8 (G1 Breeders’ Futurity):

If he draws in from the also-eligible list, Fire Alarm (Fusaichi Pegasus) could be a real threat. Yes, it’s a big ask to go from a maiden win to a G1, but this is a beautifully-bred colt; his second dam Portridee was champion 3-year-old filly in Argentina (not to mention a winner of the G1 Vanity). His dam Sweet Beat’s full-sister is the very nice G3-placed Kitty in a Tizzy; this is also the family of G3 runner-up Charmed Gift and G3 Sunland Derby winner Endorsement. Gung Ho (Kitten’s Joy) broke his maiden at PID before moving on to win the Sunday Silence on turf at Louisiana Downs—with Julien Leparoux aboard for Mike Maker, the Ramsey colors could find its way into the winner circle again. He’s from the family of BC Sprint champ Dancing Spree, multiple G1 winners Finder’s Fee, Heavenly Prize, Good Reward and Furlough, not to mention G2 With Anticipation runner-up Optimizer—who’s also entered in this race.

Race 10:

Both Corleone (Indian Charlie) and Pure Victory (Pure Prize) enter off the same PID race, and both have upsides here: Pure Victory breaks from the red-hot rail with Corleone enjoys advantage of having Julien Leparoux aboard.