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Sunday, April 1, 2007

Sunday Prognostication: 10th Race at Gulfstream

Sunday’s tenth race at Gulfstream is a 1-1/8 mile $44K for 3-year-old maiden fillies on turf.

Dynacielo, who has finished second and third in her two previous outings, has the breeding to breakout here. Of course, her name gives away the Dynaformer pedigree, but her female line is interesting, specifically her second dam Header Card, a Grade 1 winner at two (Oak Leaf Stakes) who at three won the Mistletoe Handicap and was third in the LaBrea Stakes, and her third dam Shelf Talker who set a North American record at Hollywood Park in the early 1970s, running 7-1/2 furlongs in 1:28.60. Her mother Amore Cielo, out of stayer Conquistador Cielo, also produced turf stakes-placing Adair and Cyclorama, and Apak who still holds a track record at Prairie Meadows set in 1998. In her last race on February 2, Dynacielo finished third, behind Communique (who recently finished third in the Gaily Gaily Stakes, then second in the G3 Herecomesthebride Stakes) and Mind Eraser.

The morning line favorite is Bill Mott-trained Comedy (with Edgar Prado up), a daughter of champion turf horse Theatrical and the Lord at War mare Don’t Be Silly, who won the G3 Churchill Downs Turf Mile Stakes. Ideally, Comedy is bred to be a turf miler, so it is interesting that, in her first race, she led until the mile, and then was “outfinished” to finish third behind the Giant’s Causeway filly Fee Fi Fo Fum and Bishop Estates, but ahead of Shug McGaughey’s Indian Love Call (m/l 8-1) who is also in this race. Fee Fi Fo Fum’s next race was the G2 Bonnie Miss Stakes, where she finished third behind High Again and Christmas Kid. Bishop Estates next appeared in the Gaily Gaily where she finished fifth behind Audacious Chloe and Dreaming of Anna, among others. My point is: Comedy ran very well against primo company last time, and that could very well pay off here. Interesting, Edgar Prado jumps off Indian Love Call to ride Comedy, and Prado ain’t no fool.

Bill Mott’s other entry is Crystal Minuet, who is brilliantly bred (out of Theatrical and the Red Ransom mare Crystal Symphony, a multiple graded stakes winner on turf). Crystal Symphony’s progeny includes Classic Campaign (a multiple stakes winner on turf) and stakes winner Cuyahoga. That said, all of her workouts have been middling, nothing to be excited about. Rene Douglas gets the ride.

If any first time runner is going to impress, it might be Barclay Tagg’s Bit of Whimsy who has four impressive workouts in March, and interesting breeding (Distorted Humor-Kristi B, out of El Prado). Her second dam is Highland Mills who produced multiple graded stakes turf winners including Miss Josh, Highland Crystal, Highland Springs, Royal Mountain Inn, Royal Highlander and Rejoyced.

Best prediction: Comedy (with unknown others) on the lead early, with Dynacielo closing for the win, and Bit of Whimsy in the trifecta.