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Friday, May 4, 2007

Derby Contenders: Information Overload

As if you need even more information to digest about this year's Kentucky Derby, check out the Louisville Courier-Journal's Data Track. Crunching their numbers (and if you are anal retentive about numbers, you will love this), the top 10 Derby finishers (from best to least) should be:

1. Street Sense (323)
2. Nobiz Like Shobiz (285)
3. Scat Daddy (283)
4. Cowtown Cat (273)
5. Hard Spun (257)
6. Dominican (256)
7. Any Given Saturday (254)
8. Great Hunter (247)
9. Teuflesberg (233)
10. Sam P (221)

I also stumbled across this site months ago, by Dr. Steven A. Roman (Columbia University), which is heavily mathematical in its pedigree and pace-based methodology. In summation (for those of you—like me—whose brains freeze up when you look at too many numbers), there are four logical choices (based on history and recent trends) for the final Derby contenders:

1. Circular Quay
2. Street Sense
3. Any Given Saturday
4. Nobiz Like Shobiz

They meet his pace parameter and performance figure criteria. Also up near the top of the list: Tiago, Zanjero, Liquidity, Cowtown Cat and Scat Daddy.

The Daily Racing Form's past performances for the Derby are found here; for the Bris report (my favorite) look here.

My selections to follow shortly...