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Thursday, July 10, 2008

Thursday Belmont Pick

In race 4 at Belmont on Thursday, Smokin Hero looks to be an odds-on favorite for trainer Allen Iwinski, especially given his second-place finish first out to Dagnabit who recently won the Tremont Stakes. The third-place finisher in that maiden race, Uncle T Seven, likewise came back to win at long odds next out at Belmont (June 26). Tom Bush’s Hook and Ladder colt Paramedic also looks good, especially with Kent Desormeaux up, but, at morning line 8-1 odds, I think Eibar Coa should give Richard Violette-trained Heir to the Stone a good ride—love the latter’s two strong gate works leading to this first-start, plus his sire Birdstone is throwing first-out winners at a 20% rate. Could be worth some money if Smokin Hero get hung wide so far out, and second-choice Bitabiz gets bottled up against the rail.


Anonymous said...

Isn't the 20% first-out winner rate for Birdstone deceptive when it's only based on one horse, S. S. Stone? (ie Birdstone has had 5 runners and 1 winner).

Valerie said...

Fair point...but he still won today :)

Anonymous said...

And another got 3rd in Texas today at Lone Star. Birdstone isnt doing too bad for a little guy.