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Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Kentucky Oaks Future Wager Pool

The Brisnet past performances are out for the first and only Kentucky Oaks future wager pool, but unfortunately I can’t provide a direct link to it here, so you’ll have to go to Bob Baffert’s site and look under the listings for Thursday, March 12, when betting begins; it ends on Sunday at 6:30 p.m.

Those fillies included in the futures' pool are:

1. Be Fair
2. Bon Jovi Girl
3. Devotee
4. Dream Empress
5. Elusive Heat
6. Empressive Lady
7. Fitz Just Right
8. Four Gifts
9. Frolic’s Dream
10. Haka
11. Just Jenda
12. Justwhistledixie
13. Laragh
14. Nan
15. Our Dahlia
16. Persistently
17. Rachel Alexandra
18. Renda
19. Rock Candy
20. Sky Diva
21. Stardom Bound
22. Third Dawn
23. What A Pear
24. All Others

Not surprisingly, Stardom Bound is listed at 5-1, with Rachel Alexandra not far behind at 6-1. However, tied with the mutual field at 10-1 for third choice is Elusive Heat. To be honest, I’m shocked! Don’t get me wrong—I love her! However, any daughter of champion sprinter Xtra Heat and sprinter/miler Elusive Quality is not going to get 10f—PERIOD! I’m not certain Kiaran McLaughlin is even considering the Oaks. She’s nominated for this weekend’s G3 Cicada (6f) at Aqueduct, and there’s no indication from her workouts they are attempting to stretch her out. Seriously, that would be a wasted wager, IMHO.

Others on the list to approach with caution: Dream Empress who appears destined for a turf/artificial surface career. Both her wins last year were either on turf (Saratoga) or Polytrack (Keeneland) before her second-place finish behind Stardom Bound on the Pro-Ride. On Churchill’s dirt track, she finished a very distant fourth in the G2 Golden Rod in late November; her first race this year will be the grassy G3 Herecomesthebride on March 15. I like Nan on turf and artificial surfaces, but her two previous attempts at real dirt where extremely disappointing; I hold out little hope of improvement on those past experiences (although I love her pedigree—a direct tailine female descendent of Gallorette). Frolic’s Dream is another one who looks to be a sprinter by breeding (by Smoke Glacken) and by performance—she was decimated in the G2 Davona Dale going 8f; her early speed just can’t carry beyond 7f.

Beyond the obvious Stardom Bound and Rachel Alexandra, who looks good for the Oaks?

Godolphin’s Devotee impressively won the UAE Oaks in Dubai over the Oaks’ 10f distance. Yes, she’s also a daughter of Elusive Quality, but her damsire is Sunday Silence, and her dam Danuta is a half-sister to the impressive filly Folk (by Quiet American).

Sky Diva may have just one prep before the Oaks, but she crushed the G1 Frizette at Belmont last October off a mere maiden victory (albeit by 10 lengths over only three rivals on a sloppy Delaware track). In her third lifetime race she finished third to Stardom Bound in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, and then proceeded to fail quite miserably in the G2 Demoiselle. I’m willing to forgive her that, as she’s been working well since mid-February for her first 2009 start. Interestingly, her dam Swift Girl (Unbridled) is a half-sister to Pure Clan (Pure Prize) who finished third in last year’s Oaks (behind Proud Spell and Little Belle), so it could be a family thing.

For a sentimental selection, you could do worse than pick Joe Parker-trained What A Pear, of whom Teresa over at Brooklyn Backstretch has written previously. She hails from a strong damside family, as her third dam Best In Show produced (among others) G1 Kentucky Oaks winner Blush With Pride—dam of Better Than Honour (dam of G1 Kentucky Oaks winner Rags to Riches, in addition to Jazil and Casino Drive); Maryinsky (dam of G1 Irish Oaks winner Peeping Fawn); and Desert God, sire of the undefeated Pepper’s Pride. Wow! Talk about a family tradition. And, honestly, we need to see Channing Hill’s sparkling blue eyes in Louisville on Oaks day!


Keith - Triple Dead Heat said...

I think we could write some great headlines with Bon Jovi Girl...time to go find that PP list and get working on a post. Thanks for the link!

Handride said...

too lazy to write an email, but wanted to be a little hidden, there's a new free pp trainer site out there. it's listed on the homepage... spendthrift. the pp engine is back working but it only takes you to the trainers homepage. not the pdf file.