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Sunday, June 27, 2010

More Juveniles on Sunday

Decent results from yesterday’s juvenile analysis, particularly with Final Mesa crushing the My Dear Stakes and Miz Vizcaya winning at Delaware—not to mention selecting four of the top 5 finishers in race 7 at Calder (but not the winner, alas), a race that’s 10 cent superfecta paid a whopping $15,143.39! Man, I mentally beat myself up all night about that one! Let’s give it another try with some of Sunday’s juvenile races.

Race 1 at Churchill Downs is a 5 furlong turf sprint for 2-year-old maidens, and Steve Asmussen-trained Mae B Today looks perfectly bred for this. By turf sire Stormy Atlantic, his Woodman dam Ethyl Mae won the listed Staten Island Stakes over Belmont turf at age 2; his second dam is a full-sister to top turfster Fourstars Allstar, winner of the 1991 Irish Two Thousand Guineas, and also produced G2 turf winner Mystic Lady, a turf producer in her own right. Another promising Stormy Atlantic is Michael Maker-trained Typhoon Slew, half-brother to stakes winners Slew’s Tizzy and Slew’s Tiznow, the former who finished third in the 2007 Commonwealth Turf; nice long workouts. At first glance, Truly Smart doesn’t appear made for turf, until you consider his dam is a half-sister to multiple G1 turf winner Subordination. The only filly in here is Dos Lunas, with excellent turf breeding, by Hennessey out of an El Prado mare who is a half-sister to G1-placed turfster Transduction Gold and G3 turf winner Kim Loves Bucky; she’s had a number of workouts in advance of this debut.

In Churchill’s race 6—a 5 furlong maiden special weight for 2-year-old fillies—Wayne Catalano sends out for Ken and Sarah Ramsey a daughter of Kitten’s Joy, Love This Kitten; her dam is a full-sister to talented G1-placed sprinter Talent Search, and a half-sister (by Kitten’s Joy) to Kera’s Kitten, a stakes-winner at age 2. Witchy One breaks from post 1 for George Arnold; her dam has already produced G1-placed It’s Tea Time. Of those who have raced already, Congo Carah looks promising, having finished third in her only race to next-out allowance winner (and G3 Debutante fourth-place finisher) Internet Café and next-out MSW winner (by over six lengths!) Golden Phoenix. For a longshot, how about Like Mama Like Mia, whose dam has produced Sumwhrovrtherainbw, who not only won first out as a 2-year-old, but finished third in the juvenile Junior Champion Stakes at Monmouth? By high-percentage (17%) first-time starters sire With Distinction, this one could pop a nice surprise with Oriana Rossi up.

Race 1 at Monmouth is a maiden claimer for 2-year-old fillies, and Wesley Ward-trainee Voodoointhevibes appears ready to fire first-out, with a serious of sharp workouts; her second dam Humble Clerk won the G2 Golden Rod as a juvenile. Wildly Lana, who finished third in her first race, takes a class drop; her precocious second dam Speed Dialer won the G2 Arlington-Washington Lassie. Patrick Biancone ticks all the boxes with Happy Jo—drops from MSW to claiming, 2nd career race and adds blinkers; she was a non-factor in her first effort, but is out of G2-placed dam Happily Unbridled. The only positive angle (besides nice workouts) I can find for Whatsthedifference is, unlike her first poor effort, she’ll run on Lasix this time.

Hollywood race 2 features a Roman Ruler first-timer for Bob Baffert; Romanette fired a sub-one minute 5 furlong workout from the gate in anticipation of this start. Baffert also sends out Royal Ancestry, full-sister to G1 Spinaway victress Awesome Humor. Nice works for Family Plan, and she’s a full-sister to G3 Sweetest Chant victress Capital Request (runner-up at 2 in Hollywood Wildcat Stakes), G2-placed filly Closeout and G3-placed Family Foundation (also at age 2). With such precocious siblings, she looks very good indeed. Based on her workouts (and 25% first-time starters sire Congrats), Wickedly Perfect looks live with Bejarano up.

UPDATE (SUNDAY, 1:30 p.m.):
Hope someone played Dos Lunas in the first race at Churchill—a $30.60 runaway winner! Good thing most American bettors still don't believe filles can beat males, as particularly at age 2, when fillies are often more advanced than their male counterparts, it's a huge positive when a trainer runs them against the boys. Just watch enough turf racing in Australia, and you'll see it happens ALL THE TIME!

At Monmouth, Happy Jo, Wildly Lana and Whatsthedifference fleshed out a $1 trifecta that paid $93.80; with Voodoointhevibes, the 10 cent super paid $25.88. Too bad I was out and missed this and the Churchill race :-(