Are we living in a parallel horse racing universe these days, one in which trainers actually see the Big Picture and don’t push their Kentucky Derby candidates to win early? Todd Pletcher holds juvenile champion
Uncle Mo out of traditional prep races like the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby in favor of a specially-written race (the $100,000 Timely Writer) at Gulfstream over eight furlongs—one that the Toddster makes sure happens by nominating 12 other horses for it. Off his victory in the one-turn mile Grade 3 Holy Bull, Nick Zito enters
Dialed In against older allowance horses going nine furlongs—and gets beat by his own stablemate. Bill Mott is
“pleased” after previously-undefeated
To Honor and Serve finishes third in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth, having
“needed the race.” Is it a brilliant strategy or just plain crazy? Obviously, that yet remains to be seen, but call me leery.
These unconventional paths to the first Saturday in May appear almost schizophrenic, but I wonder how much they are in reaction to the litany of injuries suffered by last year’s top contenders.
Meanwhile, there are those for which hope ever springs eternal, like Bob Baffert still thinking
The Factor is anything but a sprinter; ditto for Rick Dutrow-trainee
Flashpoint. However, tempering those with Derby fever are owners like those of Borderland Derby winner
Fusa Code and apparently even Todd Pletcher-trained
Cal Nation. Call me shocked when, immediately after her Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks victory,
Turbulent Descent’s trainer Mike Puype ruled out a Kentucky Oaks run, based on her distance limitations. Since when does the realistic outlook seemingly dominate trainers’ thinking? Truly amazing.
Every year I base my Derby contenders list on a mixture of performance and pedigree, so this year’s peculiar campaigns don’t make it easy. Thus, for better or worse, I’m leaning on pedigree and potential rather than actual accomplishments in my thinking. My top 10 list this week:
1.
Stay ThirstyBased on his decent performance in the Gotham and his pedigree,
Stay Thirsty should have no problem getting the Derby distance. His half-brother
Andromeda’s Hero ran a strong second behind a dominant
Afleet Alex in the Belmont Stakes; his second dam
Make Change (by stamina-rich sire
Roberto) was Grade 1-placed multiple times going 9 to 12 furlongs. Next: Grade 1 Florida Derby, April 3.
2.
Dialed InYes, he finished behind stablemate
Equestrio in an allowance race on Sunday, but I’m looking at that effort as nothing more than a glorified workout. With a small five-horse field, there was no speed, and Julien Leparoux never asked
Dialed In to run until he moved from the rear around the final turn. I was pleased that he easily got the 9 furlong distance, so I’m still on board the
Dialed In bandwagon. Next: Grade 1 Florida Derby, April 3.
3.
To Honor and ServeUnlike others, I’m willing to give Bill Mott the benefit of doubt. His damside has plenty of 8.5 furlong winners—
Afleet Deceit,
India, and
Rahy’s Attorney, not to mention his dam
Pilfer. That little extra
Bernardini influence may carry him even further. Next: Grade 1 Florida Derby, April 3.
4.
Uncle MoI’m becoming less and less enchanted with
Uncle Mo—regardless of witnessing his dominating Breeders’ Cup victory in person. As an
Indian Charlie colt, the stamina question lingers for me and starting his 3-year-old campaign in a one-turn mile event doesn’t exactly inspire confidence that he’ll have enough backbone to go 10 furlongs. Next: non-graded Timely Writer, March 12.
5.
SoldatTurf or dirt, this
War Front colt has got it done. His damsire
Coronado’s Quest won the Grade 1 Travers, but there’s much to indicate some distance limitations on this one. Still, based on his current level of performance, he ranks high among contenders. Next: Grade 1 Florida Derby, April 3.
6.
BrethrenFor the very
reasons I liked Super Saver last year, his little half-brother Brethren rates highly in terms of getting the Derby distance. Next: Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby, March 12.
7.
Rogue RomanceLast year’s third-place finisher in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile began his 3-year-old campaign with a late-closing third in the Grade 2 Risen Star. His half-brother
Tizbig finished strongly running second to
Mint Lane in the 2008 Grade 2 Dwyer, a race won in 1986 by their second dam’s half-brother
Ogygian. This is also the family of Grade 1 Met Mile victor
Honour and Glory. He’s got the right running style, not to mention having already run well at Churchill Downs. Next: Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, March 26.
8.
WilkinsonNot many have this
Lemon Drop Kid colt in their top 10, but I liked his gutsy finish in the Grade 3 Lecomte. Yes, I do think his win there was almost solely based on jockey Garrett Gomez’s ability to “carry” a horse over the wire, but his pedigree features a second dam by the great turf router
Manila. I also respect trainer Neil Howard tremendously. Next: Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, March 26.
9.
Sway AwayYes, he’s not yet raced beyond 7 furlongs or won a graded event, but the way he closed in the Grade 2 San Vicente against speedy
The Factor makes me believe this is perhaps the best California-based contender. What a tremendous stamina pedigree, by
Afleet Alex out of a
Seattle Slew mare, and his second dam by
Summer Squall. Still, without actually trying route races, it’s hard to move him up farther. Having Garrett Gomez stay aboard for the Rebel is a promising sign, though. Next: Grade 2 Rebel, March 19.
10.
What The ToccetI’m bored with the typical contenders, so here’s my wild card—a Sunland Park-based maiden trained by Shannon Ritter. He’s bred to run all day, by
Toccet out of a
Coronado’s Quest mare who is a half-sister to Grade 1 Donn winner
Spring at Last, Grade 1 Las Virgenes victress
Sharp Lisa (who won going 10 furlongs) and Grade 1-placed router
Sharp Susan. This is also the family of multiple Grade 1 router
Bien Bien (who even won at 14 furlongs)—if he wins the Grade 3 Sunland Derby, a serious Derby contender. Next: Grade 3 Sunland Derby, March 27.