When all else fails, return to the basics. I'm in a bit of a wagering slump, having fallen into that trap of betting on horses I'm attached to and want to win, ignoring the fact that they probably aren’t the best horse. Well, except for Joyful Victory in the Honeybee. Anyhow, I decided to take a whack at a race with horses I’m not familiar with and with a handicapping angle I enjoy playing: maidens, some first-time starters, on turf, some for the first time.
In race 7 at Gulfstream—a 3yo+ maiden event going 5 furlongs on turf—Wesley Ward sends out a first-time starter with tons of upside, Magoo. Not only is his sire Bring The Heat throwing first-out winners at 21% (not to mention 26% on turf), but his dam Frysland (who broke her maiden going 9.5 furlongs on turf) has already produced Hockeythehayman who began his career with four straight victories (on all three surfaces) before finishing second in the last year’s Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint. Another interesting entry, Wise Blitz attempts turf for the first time after failing to place in six previous efforts—which will undoubtedly sends him off at extremely long odds. That said, this son of Supah Blitz is out a stakes-placed turf sprint mare Wise And Precious whose full-brother Wise Chief broke his maiden going 5 furlongs on turf (at nearly 46-1). With some early speed and the surface switch, he might be worth a flyer bet. Much more likely, however, is Strictly Society, reunited with Alan Garcia, who has twice just missed at this distance/surface.