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Thursday, April 14, 2011

Wanted: Suckers to Claim Unraced Juveniles for $100k

EDIT: What a doofus! Looking for post time on Friday, I discover this race was actually on THURSDAY. At least my analysis was done Wednesday night and posted automatically the next morning...before the race. I need more sleep...

Two juvenile races on tap for Friday, including a 2-furlong $100k maiden claiming event at Santa Anita—talk about seriously risking your money on potential (or lack thereof), particularly when the most expensive auction purchase in the field is an $11k Keeneland purchase. Based on posted workouts alone, the top choices look to be the colt Always The Same (Grand Score) and filly Real Dream (Cat Dreams) based on sharp 3-furlong works, and colt Compass Rock (Orientate) and filly Super Candy (Candy Ride) with smokin’ 2-furlong works.

How’s their breeding stack up? Always The Same’s dam broke her maiden first up as a 3-year-old, and her only winning foal Ready Betty did so late in her juvenile campaign. However, Always The Same’s second dam Constant Change was runner-up in the Mazarine Stakes as a juvenile, and also produced juvenile winner Highfalutin, later runner-up in the G3 Sixty Sails. Real Dream’s dam didn’t break her maiden until age 5 (in her 21st race) which is surprising considering her full-brother No Apollogee won his juvenile debut, not to mention their dam Variety Baby won the Moccasin at Hollywood before running second in the G1 Hollywood Starlet. Compass Rock’s dam won her second juvenile start; this is the family of G2 Black-Eyed Susan victress Miss Legality who crushed her maiden start and then won the G3 Gardenia late in her juvenile campaign. Super Candy’s dam has produced 8 winners—though none won at 2—while her second dam was multiple G1-placed at 3, but unraced at 2. Questionable precociousness among all four of these, so let’s look beyond them.

Of interest is the Seattle Fitz filly Miss Fitzy—her unraced dam is a half-sister to G2 Kentucky Cup Juvenile victor Stream Cat (who also ran third in the G1 Lanes End Breeders’ Futurity). A juvenile winner second out, Pali Girl (Betrando) is the dam of Tribal Rule filly Linda T Rules; both her previous starters have won, but Pali Chief (Deputy Commander) broke his juvenile maiden at first-asking by 4 lengths. Linda T Rules’ second dam Vote Getter won her first juvenile race.

Trainer Clifford Sise Jr. sends out Warren’s Dr. Boo, a colt by Doc Gus who first-time starters win rate is 19%. His second dam is a half-sister to both Graciously Soft (whose juvenile son In The Midnight may run in Keeneland’s second race on Thursday) and G1 Mother Goose and CCAO victress Spoken Fur whose daughter Unspoken Fur broke her maiden second-out as juvenile.

Also interesting is Joca Queen (Awesome Gambler) whose dam also has an early (May) juvenile winner; her second dam Nijivision was juvenile stakes-placed and later G2 Santa Ynez runner-up. This is also the family of Supervision who broke her maiden second-out as a juvenile—by over 21 lengths!

UPDATE:

No claims were made on this bunch, but I was encouraged to see my comments on Linda T Rules didn’t help her odds, as she went off at nearly 25-1—and just missed winning by a head! She did pay $13.60 place, and fleshed out a $1 exacta that paid $89.10. The winner Son de America, a bay FILLY by Discreet Cat out of the Street Cry mare Elizabeth Street won, paying $10.40. For the life of me I couldn’t remember how I recognized the name Elizabeth Street, but then I looked it up and saw that she had broken her maiden for Graham Motion at Presque Isle during one of my visits there. Duh! Sharp worker Real Dream finished third, just a nose ahead of Miss Fitzy. The rest of the field’s finish: Always the Same, Compass Rock, Joca Queen and Super Candy.

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