Tornado Tragedy at Latonia, 1915

The devastating tornadoes that ravished the South this week represent humanity’s worst nightmare: our inability to avoid Mother Nature’s wrath. No matter how technologically advanced we become, there are simply some things ultimately beyond our control.

Sadly, the same thing was true on July 7, 1915, when a series of tornadoes struck the Ohio River Valley—Missouri, Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky and Ohio—particularly devastating the city of Cincinnati where the death toll reportedly neared 40 people. Church steeples topped, riverboats overturned and commercial buildings collapsed. Nearby, Latonia Race Track suffered nearly $15,000 in damage, including portions of the clubhouse’s roof and grandstand blown off, as well as the roofs of nearly every stable on the grounds. (DRF, July 8, 1915)

Latonia Race Track in better days

Among the dead that day were three stable hands who, in addition to 15 other injured men, were among those riding a Pennsylvania Railroad train carrying racehorses that derailed near Terrace Park, Ohio. En route from Latonia to Windsor, Ontario, the train carried a number of horses belonging to Colonel Edward R. Bradley and W.W. Darden. The July 9 Daily Racing Form noted that when the two owners later arrived at the accident scene, “and saw the mangled and mud-encrusted bodies of their blooded race horses scattered in grotesque attitudes along the right of way of the Pennsylvania railroad, they could not keep back their tears."



An account in the Cincinnati Enquirer laid out the gruesome scene in the wreck’s aftermath:

“Mortally wounded animals lashed out with their hoofs in every direction in the dense darkness, kicking other horses and men. Looking through the hole in the car the men saw Bennie Eberson, of Louisville, a white stableman, lying under the body of a dead horse. Eberson recognized them, smiling faintly. The smile was still there when a big racer, pinioned in the wreckage, crushed the man’s chest with one blow of his hoof. Eberson had also been disemboweled. The two negroes were mangled by hoofs.”

A survivor, Walter Hurley noted:

“It was enough to break the heart of a horseman. The first thing I knew I was lying on the top of a pile of horses. I was kicked several times, but I knew they didn’t mean it. A wreck like that makes a human being go crazy, so what can you expect of a horse?”

Eleven horses died, including two Helmet fillies—2-year-old Blood Test and 3-year-old Brig’s Sister, both winners in consecutive years of the prestigious juvenile Clipsetta Stakes at Latonia. In a strange twist of fate, Margaret D, runner-up to Brig’s Sister in the previous year’s Clipsetta, also died on the train. Lost too was Dortch, recent third-place finisher in the Latonia Derby who, a mere two months earlier, was rumored to be one of the “best backed maidens that ever started in a Kentucky Derby” (DRF, May 6, 1915). Unfortunately, he turned out to be a well-beaten eighth, more than 14-lengths behind the filly Regret.

Among the horses injured by the twister’s devastation was Colonel Bradley’s promising unraced juvenile Blind Baggage who suffered a severed artery in his leg. However, by the next spring, he had apparently healed, as Bradley reiterated his enthusiasm for the colt’s Kentucky Derby chances. Alas, it was not to be, as Blind Baggage it turned out, was a terrific sprinter. All told, he ran 16 times at age three, finishing out of the money only three times. He returned as a 4-year-old, tying the 6-furlong track record at Lexington in the Winchester Handicap, and winning a total of eight sprint handicaps, toting as much as 126 pounds.

Another of the tornado survivors was a tough old gelding named Gabrio, owned by George Arvin. Nicknamed the “Plow Horse” due to his former profession of working fields, Gabrio eventually (and successfully) made his way onto a race track prior to the accident. Thrown clear of the wreckage, the gelding was found five days later, half-starved but none other the worse for wear and, after time off on the farm, he made a winning return at the Fair Grounds the next January—and continued to race successfully as late as 1918, in claiming races at the bush track in Cheyenne.

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Sigh of Relief

Word that Calvin Borel will take the Derby mount on Sunland Derby winner Twice The Appeal certainly warrants a sigh of relief, not just for the king of Churchill himself, but also for media outlets everywhere. Seriously, how could NBC possibly sell the continuing historical relevance of the Derby if the race’s most dominating jockey in recent years (not to mention Hall of Fame nominee) was sitting in the jock’s room, watching the event on television?

In a wildly unpredictable prep year, don’t discount this son of Successful Appeal either—his damsire Cormorant gave us Derby winner Go For Gin, while his dam Double Boarded has also produced Board Elligible (Goldminer’s Gold), who not only won or placed numerous times going 9-furlongs, but also was runner-up in the 10-furlong G3 Ladies Handicap at Aqueduct. In addition, his wet track pedigree is formidable, so Calvin has to be pleased.

Speculation—and, frankly, unwarranted hype—about Master of Hounds as a possible Derby starter is getting annoying. Sure, he’s nicely bred, but he’s also only won once in 7 starts, none on dirt—and with just over a week before the race he’s still standing in a stall 4,000 miles away from Louisville. The plan is to arrive on Tuesday morning (TUESDAY!) with the Derby on Saturday. And respected turf writers are fawning over him. He finished sixth of 12 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, folks—behind Pluck. Pluck. Honestly, why are Americans so impressed with European turf horses that attempt dirt? I admit, I’m guilty at times myself, having backed Theyskens Theory in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies race, but, damnit, just touching hooves on The Curragh isn’t a magic bullet to winning the Kentucky Derby. There are much better bred turf-raced horses right here in America with a better shot—Animal Kingdom and Brilliant Speed come immediately to mind. With Saturday’s 2000 Guineas field scheduled to be finalized, let’s hope this ridiculous conjecture is finally over.

Sentimentally, I’m still hoping PA-bred Anthony’s Cross makes the field—the other horse I felt would be a natural choice for Borel to ride since he broke his maiden at Churchill last November with Calvin aboard. He won the G2 Robert Lewis before a disappointing fifth-place finish in the G1 Santa Anita Derby under Joel Rosario, but with Rosario committed to Brilliant Speed, Anthony’s Cross could end up being Garrett Gomez’s ride; he rode him three times last year. Sure, Anthony’s Cross is by Indian Charlie, but there’s some nice stamina in his damline. His half-sister Fugitive Angel (Alphabet Soup) reeled off three consecutive stakes wins going 8.5 furlongs last year, including the G3 Pin Oak Valley View on turf, and looked like she want even more when gaining late to finish third behind Aruna in the G2 Mrs. Revere. His second dam Recording won the 9-furlong G3 Sands Point, and among her progeny are 9-furlong G2-placed Deal Making (Empire Maker) and G1-placed Smart Bid (Smart Strike), as well as Representing (Rahy), a German G3 runner-up over 11 furlongs.

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My Kingdom For a Horse

With less than two weeks to go now before Kentucky Derby 137, I find myself bereft of a fan’s most important asset—a Derby horse. Anyone else likewise so afflicted?

Those horses who looked most promising early on are injured (Premier Pegasus, Rogue Romance, To Honor and Serve), proven vulnerable (Uncle Mo, The Factor, Soldat), or have just flat-out disappointed (Brethren, Stay Thirsty). The far-more-talented fillies (Joyful Victory, R Heat Lightning, Zazu, Summer Soiree) are Oaks-bound instead, unfortunately. That leaves a host of interesting contenders with potential but thus far lacking that “wow” factor for me.

Putting together a Top Ten list for the Paulick Derby Index has been a challenge in recent weeks, not so much for what horses to include, but in what exact order to rank them. Right now, my list is completely fluid, and likely to remain so until workouts, jockey assignments, post positions and race day conditions bring more clarity to the situation. Believe me, I’m ready and willing to give away my heart so, like most everyone else I suspect, I’ll be pouring over every tidbit of information proffered, be it ever so minute.

As I did last year (when I nailed the Super Saver-Ice Box exacta), I’ll be providing in-depth pedigree analysis on the Derby entrants for Hello Race Fans! Lacking any clear favorite, careful study of stamina potential is probably more important than ever this year—and a number of horses offer intriguing possibilities. Those are the ones that dominant my list.

While not entirely ready to articulate reasons for each of my selections, let me just say that, all of the Derby prep races, I believe the Louisiana Derby has proven to be superior. Thus, Pants On Fire, Nehro and Mucho Macho Man find a prominent place among my contenders.

How appropriate would it be for Rosie Napravnik to become the first female jockey to win the Run for the Roses? With Pants On Fire, she’s got an excellent chance—and I’m truly excited by deeper evaluation of his pedigree. Nehro appears to me peaking at exactly the right time, after narrow runner-up finishes behind Pants On Fire and Archarcharch. I’ve never been a fan of Mucho Macho Man (maybe the name turns me off a bit), but you can’t question his consistency. It would be fantastic for Kathy Ritvo to smash that glass ceiling for female trainers in the Derby as well.

I love the late closing style of Dialed In, while the pedigrees of Archarcharch, Midnight Interlude, Animal Kingdom and Brilliant Speed enthrall me—even though I’m not totally convinced the latter two can transfer their turf and synthetic form to real dirt. They have the most to prove to me in workouts.

It’s a wide-open field for Kentucky Derby betting, and likely one that will result in more than a few surprises. Let’s enjoy the ride, folks.

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Saturday's Preps

On Wednesday, it was Shotgun Gulch in the Vinery Madison. On Thursday, Get Stormy continued the G1 winning ways of Foolish Pleasure damline descendents, taking out the Maker’s Mark Mile. Forgive me if I revel in that. It's been a frenetic week at work.

Honestly, I’d love to know why the Blue Grass Stakes is still a Grade 1 race. Stately Victor, Monba, Dominican, Sinister Minister, Bandini...all Grade 3 winners, at best, as subsequent form bore out. Oh, sure there was Paddy O’Prado and Street Sense—but I’m just not buying it.

As far as this year’s event producing a serious Derby contender, call me skeptical. Still, that doesn’t mean I won’t be wagering on this year’s race, especially with so many upset possibilities. Santiva (Giant’s Causeway) is a solid favorite—and I’ve got no problem including him as such—but among the longer shots to consider would be Willcox Inn (Harlan’s Holiday) off his performance over this track in last year’s G1 Breeders’ Futurity and with Rosie Napravnik aboard. His dam De Aar just missed winning the 9-furlong turf G3 Pebbles, and among her siblings is 10-furlong G1 Flower Bowl victress Dynaforce, so the distance shouldn’t be an issue. Last year he defeated recent G3 Spiral winner Animal Kingdom, not to mention finished a sharp closing third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf.

Joes Blazing Aaron (Graeme Hall) who is currently 12-1 morning line also intrigues me. Winner of the G3 Palm Beach over this distance last out, he’s been switched to trainer Michael Maker who won last year with Stately Victor. I also love Garrett Gomez aboard. Sure, you could have claimed him for $50k just two races ago, but he looks like he became a different horse when switched to turf. His half-sister Danse Grecque (Hold That Tiger) was twice G2-placed in France; his second dam Suspect Terrain won the G3 Spicy Living Handicap at Rockingham going 9 furlongs on turf. Can he adjust to Polytrack? Not particularly crazy about Joel Rosario aboard, but Brilliant Speed just missed in the Hallandale Beach last out and, although he’s never raced on synthetics, his pricey unraced dam is a half-sister to classy Serenading, runner-up in Keeneland’s G3 Doubledogdare. Considering how horses have been closing well over the Polytrack, I’m definitely not eliminating either Graham Motion’s Crimson China (Giant’s Causeway) or Queen’splatekitten, despite their unfortunate draws.

As for the G1 Arkansas Derby, I’m not a fan of The Factor, admittedly due to his unfortunate name referencing a total media-hound whack-job, so I’ll be rooting hard for an upset. Elite Alex looks to be rounding into form and the blinkers added could be just want he needs to keep closer to the pace. Ditto for Brethren who has fired two sharp bullet works in advance of this start; Pletcher undoubtedly adds blinkers to keep him close to The Factor’s early speed as well. I’d also be pleased if Nehro runs well, as that would enhance Pants On Fire’s form, and Sway Away gets his blinkers back as well—and a rider change to Pat Valenzuela.

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Friday Notes

Hearty congratulations to the connections of Oklahoma-bred Shotgun Gulch on winning Thursday's G1 Vinery Madison at Keeneland over Amen Hallelujah. Hey, I’m a sucker for underdogs, and this little filly caught my attention last spring after winning the Dixie Belle at Oaklawn. Up and down all year, she finished 2010 with a promising third-place finish behind Switch and Malibu Pier in the G1 La Brea, but was no match for Havre de Grace and Blind Luck in March’s 8.5-furlong G3 Azeri. The distance, surface and jockey Garrett Gomez just worked perfectly for her. And, of course, the fact that she’s a damline descendent of Foolish Pleasure is fantastic.

For this year’s Epsom Oaks, you could have gotten 50-1 on regally bred John Gosden-trained Field of Miracles, but those odds should drop a bit after she smartly broke her maiden over Kempton’s all-weather surface going 12-furlongs on Thursday. By Galileo, Field of Miracles is the daughter of a winning Arch mare who is a full sister to the great Canadian champion mare Arravale.

Race 1 at Keeneland on Friday is a 4.5-furlong maiden special weight for 2-year-old fillies and—no surprise—Wesley Ward’s coupled entry is the morning line favorite. Since Jeffrey Sanchez is named on both Gypsy Robin (Daaher) and Judy The Beauty (Ghostzapper), one or the other will be scratched. Does it really match which one? Regardless of pedigree and apparent lack of precociousness, Ward is a magic man with juveniles so ignore them at your peril.

Honestly, I tried to get excited about this race, but nothing pedigree-wise stands out for most of the entries. Despite posting no workouts, Larry Demeritte-trained Where Is Wilder (Half Ours) is somewhat intriguing; her dam Me And Myun (Relaunch) broke her maiden in her third outing at 2, and her prowess in the breeding shed is impressive—6 winners from 6 starters, including juvenile stakes-placed Curve Ahead (Laabity). Still, nothing “screams” out about her.

On the other hand, Eric Reed sends out More Discreet, by first-crop sire Discreet Cat who easily broke his maiden first up at 2. She’s out of the unraced mare Absolute Magic (Unbridled) who is regally-bred, being out of multiple G1 winner Chaposa Springs (who broke her juvenile maiden at first asking by 4 lengths)—and whose own dam was champion juvenile filly in Peru. This is also the family of G1 Met Mile victor You and I; G2 San Rafael runner-up Tenfold; G3 winner Mendip; and 9-furlong Yaddo Handicap winner Ransom’s Pride—all juvenile winners.

UPDATE:

No surprise here...Ward’s Judy The Beauty ($4.20 win) took the prize after passing front-running 3-1 Wish To Opine ($4.00 place) about mid-way down the stretch. Trained by Ronnie Werner, Wish To Opine (Purim) is a daughter of minor juvenile stakes winner Flying Gal (Flying Chevron). According to Trakkus, 2-1 second choice More Discreet ($2.40 show) travelled 19 feet farther than the winner, but only nosed out 20-1 Where Is Wilder for show money. The latter filly is one to watch—I know I was impressed with her beautiful break from gate and running line thereafter.

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Wanted: Suckers to Claim Unraced Juveniles for $100k

EDIT: What a doofus! Looking for post time on Friday, I discover this race was actually on THURSDAY. At least my analysis was done Wednesday night and posted automatically the next morning...before the race. I need more sleep...

Two juvenile races on tap for Friday, including a 2-furlong $100k maiden claiming event at Santa Anita—talk about seriously risking your money on potential (or lack thereof), particularly when the most expensive auction purchase in the field is an $11k Keeneland purchase. Based on posted workouts alone, the top choices look to be the colt Always The Same (Grand Score) and filly Real Dream (Cat Dreams) based on sharp 3-furlong works, and colt Compass Rock (Orientate) and filly Super Candy (Candy Ride) with smokin’ 2-furlong works.

How’s their breeding stack up? Always The Same’s dam broke her maiden first up as a 3-year-old, and her only winning foal Ready Betty did so late in her juvenile campaign. However, Always The Same’s second dam Constant Change was runner-up in the Mazarine Stakes as a juvenile, and also produced juvenile winner Highfalutin, later runner-up in the G3 Sixty Sails. Real Dream’s dam didn’t break her maiden until age 5 (in her 21st race) which is surprising considering her full-brother No Apollogee won his juvenile debut, not to mention their dam Variety Baby won the Moccasin at Hollywood before running second in the G1 Hollywood Starlet. Compass Rock’s dam won her second juvenile start; this is the family of G2 Black-Eyed Susan victress Miss Legality who crushed her maiden start and then won the G3 Gardenia late in her juvenile campaign. Super Candy’s dam has produced 8 winners—though none won at 2—while her second dam was multiple G1-placed at 3, but unraced at 2. Questionable precociousness among all four of these, so let’s look beyond them.

Of interest is the Seattle Fitz filly Miss Fitzy—her unraced dam is a half-sister to G2 Kentucky Cup Juvenile victor Stream Cat (who also ran third in the G1 Lanes End Breeders’ Futurity). A juvenile winner second out, Pali Girl (Betrando) is the dam of Tribal Rule filly Linda T Rules; both her previous starters have won, but Pali Chief (Deputy Commander) broke his juvenile maiden at first-asking by 4 lengths. Linda T Rules’ second dam Vote Getter won her first juvenile race.

Trainer Clifford Sise Jr. sends out Warren’s Dr. Boo, a colt by Doc Gus who first-time starters win rate is 19%. His second dam is a half-sister to both Graciously Soft (whose juvenile son In The Midnight may run in Keeneland’s second race on Thursday) and G1 Mother Goose and CCAO victress Spoken Fur whose daughter Unspoken Fur broke her maiden second-out as juvenile.

Also interesting is Joca Queen (Awesome Gambler) whose dam also has an early (May) juvenile winner; her second dam Nijivision was juvenile stakes-placed and later G2 Santa Ynez runner-up. This is also the family of Supervision who broke her maiden second-out as a juvenile—by over 21 lengths!

UPDATE:

No claims were made on this bunch, but I was encouraged to see my comments on Linda T Rules didn’t help her odds, as she went off at nearly 25-1—and just missed winning by a head! She did pay $13.60 place, and fleshed out a $1 exacta that paid $89.10. The winner Son de America, a bay FILLY by Discreet Cat out of the Street Cry mare Elizabeth Street won, paying $10.40. For the life of me I couldn’t remember how I recognized the name Elizabeth Street, but then I looked it up and saw that she had broken her maiden for Graham Motion at Presque Isle during one of my visits there. Duh! Sharp worker Real Dream finished third, just a nose ahead of Miss Fitzy. The rest of the field’s finish: Always the Same, Compass Rock, Joca Queen and Super Candy.

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Thursday's Juvenile Race at Keeneland

On Thursday at Keeneland, race 2 is a 4.5-furlong maiden special weight for 2-year-olds. With two of the three coupled entries naming the same jockey, I’m not yet certain who will be scratched but as always Wesley Ward appears loaded with Gentlemans Code and Rockstar Richie. The former I discussed in this previous post (he scratched that day); in terms of precocious breeding, Rockstar Richie (Bring the Heat) doesn’t have much to recommend him, so hoping it’s his stablemate who runs here.

Al Stall’s Friscan (Two Punch) is the morning line second choice; his unraced Lemon Drop Kid dam’s first offspring Snorkel (Lion Hearted) took 17 attempts to break her maiden (and not exactly at the best tracks) while Stent Double (Dance with Ravens) and full-sister Two Perfect are maidens still. Nice workouts, but again no signs of precociousness in the damline.

Who does look interesting in this field? Both parts of Chuck Peery’s 6-1 couple entry (only one of which is likely) have strong damline indicators. City Fire (Carson City), the dam of Mr. Threewitt (Rock Hard Ten), broke her maiden by 3-1/2 lengths second-up at 2, then was then juvenile stakes-placed on turf. In The Midnight’s (North Light) unraced Vindication mare Graciously Soft is out of Siberian Fur (Siberian Express) who broke her juvenile maiden at first-asking; Graciously Soft is a half-sister to G1 Mother Goose and CCAO victress Spoken Fur whose daughter Unspoken Fur broke her maiden second-out as juvenile.

Also of interest is Freddie One Bite (Forest Wildcat) whose dam Etoile Petite (Robannier) was a juvenile maiden winner, not to mention his second dam Stars In My Pocket was multiple juvenile stakes-placed including G3 runner-up in Natalma Stakes. Etoile Petite’s half-sister Roujoleur (Red Ransom) narrowly missed capturing a 6-furlong juvenile stakes race first-up before breaking her maiden going 7.5 furlongs in a turf allowance race (she would go on to win and place in two more juvenile stakes). Freddie One Bite is bred along same lines as 2-time G3 Hal’s Hope victor Chatain who broke his maiden first-out, but at 3. This is also the family of G3 millionaire Brass in Pocket and G2 Delaware Handicap runner-up Lila Paige.

Finally, an attractive longshot is Father’s Mig (Johannesburg) whose full-sister A Lot Like Mom broke her maiden at 2; his unraced dam is a half-sister to G1 Travers winner Ten Most Wanted who just missed winning his juvenile maiden in late November going 8.5 furlongs.

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Saturday Keeneland Race 2 Juvenile Fillies

Saturday at Keeneland race 2 is a maiden special weight event for juvenile fillies going 4.5 furlongs, with a full field of 12. Naturally, since these are all first-time starters, the Wesley Ward filly Tiz Terrific (Tiznow) is the pre-race favorite. Her unraced dam Terrifee (Menifee) is out of Here I Go (Mr. Prospector) who smashingly won her 5.5-furlong juvenile maiden effort by 9-lengths at Saratoga, and later that year was runner-up to Silverbulletday in the then-G3 Golden Rod (albeit 10 lengths back). Bred on a similar Storm Bird cross, Terrifee’s half-sister Summerly (Summer Squall) broke her maiden second-out (by 14 lengths) going 8.5 furlongs, before finishing third in the G2 Golden Rod—and later won the Kentucky Oaks. There does appear to be some precociousness in this family and Tiznows do well on synthetics, so a solid choice.

The highest-priced filly in the field is $155k Keeneland yearling purchase Ingenue (Mr. Greeley), conditioned by Neil Howard. Her dam Meadow Breeze (Meadowlake) completely dominated going 4.5 furlongs in her first start, winning by over nine lengths, and later won the juvenile G1 Matron over Featherbed and Octave. Ingenue has posted three very sharp workouts, including two from the gate, and looks quite playable with Julien Leparoux aboard.

Wayne Catalano sends out Grace Abounds (Stormy Atlantic) whose Mr. Prospector dam Dance With Grace was a juvenile winner. Grace Abounds is a half-sister to G1 Santa Anita Derby runner-up Setsuko who actually took five efforts to break his maiden as a juvenile. However, another half-brother Indy Dancer (AP Indy) won his first 2-year-old start going one mile—by over 4 lengths—and later finished third behind Empire Maker and Trust N Luck in the G1 Florida Derby.

Trainer-owner Marco Castaneda has two entrants: Mi Margarita (Mingun) and Piskacha (Master Command), both rather inexpensive ($1k and $2k, respectively) Keeneland yearling purchases. Honestly, in terms of breeding, there isn’t much up close to recommend them, although Mi Margarita’s second dam is a half-sister to Gone West. As progeny of sons of AP Indy, you wouldn’t expect precociousness either, especially sprinting, but both Mi Margarita and Piskacha have posted some nice 3 furlong gate works.

In addition to Master Command, two other first-crop sires are represented in this race. Given his juvenile precociousness (including winning the G1 Hollywood Futurity), Stormello should hit the ground running with his progeny, and here he is represented by Stormy Donna Gail. It took ten attempts for her dam Silver On Gold (Artax) to break her maiden, but Silver On Gold’s dam Lyrical Princess is a full-sister to G1 Frizette victress (and Hall of Fame mare) Princess Rooney who won her first 2-year-old race. Oriana Rossi rides for trainer John Hancock. The other first-crop sire represented is Inamorato, but I can’t find any compelling reason to back his daughter Diamond Exchange. Ditto with Dancninthlillies (Mancini) whose unraced dam has yet to produce a winner among three starters—and it’s not for lack of trying. Dancinthlillies’ full-brother Manivicinitall raced 10 times without a place, while half-sibling Glenna’s Choice (Fly Till Dawn) made 15 starts.

In addition to Stormy Donna Gail, trainer John Hancock also sends out Stormylittlerosey (Consolidator) with Greta Kuntzweiler aboard. Her dam Bonita Beach (Geiger Counter) was only a maiden winner (at three), but her previous 2-year-old starter Holy Cause (Holy Bull) won at first-asking. The far outside 12-post probably doesn’t help this one’s chance, though.

Rahy Girl (Eddington) has posted strong workouts over this track. Her full-brother Mr. Eddington finished second by a narrow half-length in his first juvenile start last July at Charles Town. There’s some quality in the damline, with her unraced dam Rahy Connection (Rahy) being a half-sister to G1 John A. Morris winner Link River. Claresmiezie (Forestry) interests me a bit. Her dam Deputy of Wood (Deputy Minister) was unplaced in three starts, but her second dam Wood of Binn (Woodman) won the G3 Prix Eclipse as a 2-year-old. Deputy of Wood’s half-brothers include G2 Illinois Derby victor Distilled and G3 Kent winner Three Wonders, both juvenile winners.

Chocolate Drops (Honour and Glory) goes out for trainer Eric Reed whose Curfew Tower finished second in Friday’s juvenile opener. Her dam Magnificent Miss (Chester House) placed on turf in her second juvenile effort, but never broke her maiden in six tries. I suspect this one needs more ground to be successful.

UPDATE:
No real surprises, as high-priced Ingenue ($4.40 win) defeated Tiz Terrific ($3.80 place) by a length, and both of them were nearly 4 lengths ahead of Grace Abounds ($4.00 show). Chocolate Drops was another 3 lengths back in fourth. The order of finish beyond that: Piskacha, Stormy Donna Gail, Stormylittlerosey, Rahy Girl, Claremiezie, Mi Margarita, Diamond Exchange and Dancninthelillies.

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Juvenile Race to Open Keeneland Meet

Keeneland opens on Friday with a bit of a whimper. Now, I love maiden juvenile races, especially as early as this one. So much promise, so many dreams. However, there’s not much to get excited about in this 2-year-old maiden special weight event going 4.5 furlongs.

Typically, juvenile fillies have an advantage over colts this time of year so let’s start with the sole filly entrant Concept (Montbrook). Her dam Quincy Market (Boston Harbor) was unraced at two, and it took seven attempts for her to break her maiden. Of her other progeny, neither have won yet, nor is Montbrook exactly a hot first-out sire. However, as a juvenile, Concept’s second dam Cheyenne City won a late fall 6-furlong maiden special weight over Keeneland’s old dirt track by 13-lengths on her third attempt; Cheyenne City’s full-brother Boones Mill was a sharp juvenile winner of the G2 Sapling, not to mention runner-up in both the G3 Bashford Manor and G3 Sanford. Perhaps not worth backing to win first out, but she could surprise.

Perennial juvenile master Wesley Ward sends out two entries, both with Jeffrey Sanchez named as jockey, so one horse will likely scratch. Gentlemans Code (Proud Accolade) is out of an unraced Saint Ballado mare that has produced only one winner in three runners—a one-time juvenile $12.5k maiden claimer last known to be racing in Argentina. That said, Gentlemans Code is from the same family as G1-placed (Santa Anita Handicap) Saint Buddy, G2 Fall Highweight runner-up American Champ, and G2 Arlington Classic runner-up Street Theatre. Not exactly precocious, but a sharp 3-furlong bullet workout over this track helps. Ward’s other entry is Everyday Dave, by first-crop sire Weather Warning (Storm Cat). A $39k yearling purchase, he’s actually the highest-priced horse in the field. His dam Numerieus was a listed winner in France as a juvenile, just missing breaking her maiden first-out going 5-furlongs in late April—pretty precocious overall. This is her first offspring, and the one I’m backing if he runs.

Garrett Gomez takes the ride aboard Soul Vacation (Seattle Fitz) whose dam Antoinette was unplaced in four races in the UK and whose only other runner Notassharpasuthink just missed (by a neck) breaking her maiden first out at Hoosier last September, and then ran into the likes of subsequent G2-placed Niji’s Grand Girl. Antoinette’s half-brother Excellent Band was a minor stakes winner as a juvenile, while her dam’s half-brother Evansville Slew broke his juvenile maiden first-out by four lengths, and later won the G3 Arlington-Washington Futurity.

Kent Desormeaux rides Curfew Tower (City Zip) for trainer Eric Reed. While his sire hits with 17% of first-time starters, Curfew Tower’s Australian-raced dam Lights Out (Way of Light) is only a maiden turf sprint winner whose only other runner Romantic Intention (Suave) is yet a maiden after six attempts over the past two years. This is the family, though, of Mepache (Iron Constitution), dam of juvenile stakes winners Valid Expectations, Littleexpectations and Little Sister.

The other two in here out of high-percentage (16%) sires of first-time starters are Adena’s Chance (Limehouse) and Hachi (Cuvee). Adena’s Chance has put in two sharp works including a nice 4-furlong gate work most recently. Only twice raced, his dam Little Krissy (Kris S.) broke her maiden going 8.5 furlongs on dirt as a three-year-old after failing at that distance on turf. It took 11 efforts before his half-brother Sweettalkinjerome broke his maiden as a four-year-old, while his other two siblings finished their careers as maidens. Little Krissy’s G3-placed dam Little May (Air Forbes Won) didn’t race until she was 3, and of her other offspring (which includes 12-furlong turf handicap winner Bend A Little) only two won late in their juvenile campaigns and both routing. Thus, I’m not sure Adena’s Chance will have enough early speed to win a first-out sprint like this one. Hachi’s dam What’d I Say (Shuailaan) took three years—and 16 races—to break her maiden, but when she did it was in an 8-furlong maiden claiming race and she beat 7 other entrants by 12-1/2 lengths! Hachi’s second dam Musical Miss (Seattle Song) also produced juvenile winner Trion Georgia (Prospect Bay), later placed behind Orientate in the Indiana Derby, but none of her other eight runners won at 2.

That leaves Gimmeawish (Gimmeawink) as the final entry, and here’s one with a bit of promise including six recorded workouts, each progressively better and longer. His dam Wish for Candi (Candi’s Gold) is, like Everyday Dave’s dam Numerieus, a juvenile stakes-winner, having won the 8-furlong Debutante at Stampede Park. Gimmeawish’s half-brother Pete’s Wonder (Three Wonders) broke his juvenile maiden at Woodbine first-out going 2-furlongs in April, and next out ran runner-up in the 5-furlong Victoria Stakes, while Gimmeawish’s full-sister Michaela’s Candi broke her maiden second-out as a two-year-old going 5.5 furlongs, but not until October. Second choice for me.

UPDATE:

Happy to have hit the winner with Everyday Dave ($3.20). Curfew Tower ($3.20 place) finished 2-1/4 lengths back in second while Gimmeawish only faded in the stretch and finished out of a placing. It was the filly Concept ($4.60 show) at over 33-1 that made up the most ground late, hustling in for third ahead of Adena’s Chance. Hachi lost his jockey at the start, while Gentlemans Code and Soul Vacation scratched.

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