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Friday, September 7, 2007

Presque Isle Friday Card

Okay, so I'm sitting here in the air-conditioning trying to avoid during actual work, thus I'll take a stab at today's PID card. Since they are underway in about 20 minutes, I'll update my post regularly in advance of post time.

Race 1
Trading Post should easily carry his speed 5.5 furlongs after a layoff and excellent recent work over Arlington polytrack. Two Seater comes in off two second-place finishes at Thistledown with good early speed. Hart Mountain comes in off first start on sloppy Mountaineer track; works indicate he’s better than that effort showed.

Race 2
Mercantile last raced for Eoin Harty in February; under new trainer Thomas Amoss, this Golden Missile colt has posted a series of excellent workouts on Arlington polytrack since late July. Chamberlain Bridge just missed in his first start at Woodbine on August 8; his works and pedigree indicate he should shine here. Vivaci is a Scott Lake first-time starter whose grandsire Montbrook enjoys all-weather track success with his progeny.

Race 3
Vast has placed or showed in 7 straight races this year at Turfway and Churchill; now’s the time to break that cycle in first time after claim for Nick Canani. Tizaire’s Hart comes in second off long layoff for Amoss and Mena up bodes well for improvement off that effort. Longshot June’s Approval has two excellent works over this track, comes in off sharp 6 furlong win at Mountaineer, but is breed for this distance.

Race 4
Super Diva comes in off three consecutive routes in the money, the last being on Mountaineer turf. Shes an Asset demonstrated a huge improvement between first and second race—and both were on off-track at Monmouth. Hold That Crown comes in off layoff with two good works; should like mile distance. I don't have a good justification for throwing in Pearly Halo, just gut feeling.

Race 5
Super Danny won five consecutive races before finishing a well-beaten fifth to Golden Hare in the Claiming Crown Express last time out; he has posted two works over this track. Onlynurimagination (whose grandsire is Foolish Pleasure) runs for Amoss and Mena for first time off claim. Book Bishop has yet to finish out of the money in five tries this year, coming back off a year layoff. Launch Code cuts back from route to sprint, and has three lifetime wins in eight attempts on all-weather surface.

Race 6
Some really two-year-olds in this field including Sok Sok who last finished fourth behind Ready’s Image, Tale of Ekati and The Roundhouse in the G2 Sanford Stakes. Since he undoubtedly will go off at an insanely low price, let’s try and beat him with Mr. Flamboyant, a Macho Uno colt who won easily in his last start, and has a string of excellent workouts over Keeneland polytrack this spring. Perfectly Played won at first asking in Thistledown’s Cleveland Kindergarten Stakes last out. Young Joe just missed last out at Arlington.

Race 7
Makin Peace will be early speed and has loads of turf success—at five furlongs; can he hold for the extra furlong? Thaddeus was last seen finishing second in the six furlong $100,000 Captain My Captain Handicap at Philly Park on July 28; he has a bullet-work over this track, and should be a real threat to Makin Peace. Dan Is Fast came off 18 month layoff with easy wire-to-wire victory at Thistledown in July; has posted excellent works since then. Chase the Blaze comes in off winning or close second place efforts in four straight races—and my dog’s name is Blaze, so I gotta risk him.

Race 8
I gotta go with another Foolish Pleasure descendent, great-grandson Major Mecke who has run evenly this year, and posts an excellent recent workout. Irish Emblem has improved in each of the three races he has run this race, after an eight month layoff. Confirmed is extremely appealing due to his previous all-weather surface success, yet he comes in having switched trainers and owners in three straight races and now goes for low percent trainer; on the upside, hot jock Miguel Mena rides. I’ll take a chance on him.


Warstone said...

What do you think about the Tapeta surface so far. How is it playing? Any biases or other things you may have noticed?