Despite the awful weather, Saturday’s Belmont Stakes was
exciting, the kind of race we should be used to seeing by now—the totally
unexpected happens, and a longshot wins, this time “nutty” Ruler On Ice
whose stamina pedigree on paper was highly suspect. However, any casual
observer should have noticed that the Belmont track had favored front-running
speed horses over the past couple days, and wagered accordingly. Obviously, the
equipment change to blinkers on worked, so kudos to trainer Kelly Breen.
Amidst all the sour
grapes,
what a damn shame Jose Valdivia Jr. isn’t getting more attention. His post-race
comments on track were fabulous—articulate, genuine and humble. Seriously
photogenic too—a truly well-deserved win for a jockey who isn’t usually in the
spotlight.
Given the sloppy track and on-speed bias, I thought Shackleford
had a serious shot for a placing, but that last furlong was just too much.
Third-place finisher Brilliant Speed ran true to his stamina pedigree,
as did runner-up Stay Thirsty. When I saw him break so well and be up on
pace early, I knew my pick had a serious shot at winning. I never thought it
would be Ruler On Ice to defeat him, though. Ah, live and learn—but at
least I made more money than I lost with my generous WPS bets on Stay
Thirsty. Barring Ruler On Ice, I’m pleased I had three of the top
four runners highlighted over at Hello
Race Fans!—and that was without considering a possible wet track.
When the rain came, I exempted Animal Kingdom from
all my exotics, and never once considered everyone’s wise-guy pick Master of
Hounds—he was my biggest throw out. Yes, his pedigree is decent for 12
furlongs, but he’s only won one race—why do we Americans assume European horses
are better distance runners, especially on dirt, even when they lack form? I
don’t get it. Do we have that much of a cultural inferiority complex when it
comes to racing?
My picks this year over at The Paulick Report’s
Derby/Preakness/Belmont Index were spot on. I had Animal Kingdom as my
second choice in the Derby, hit Shackleford on the nose in the
Preakness, and my pick Stay Thirsty finished second in the Belmont.
Unfortunately, I can’t quit my day job—yet. Thus, the dream lives on...
2 comments:
Hey Val. Congrats on killing it in the TC races! Wish I could make a similar boast - that's a heck of a record considering all the craziness this year. K
"...this time 'nutty' Ruler On Ice whose stamina pedigree on paper was highly suspect."
2011: The year when a record number of handicapping systems proved to be suspect.
Don Reed
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