With the
dust settled from this year’s Triple Crown, what perspective is gained from the
seemingly unconventional tactics employed by the various connections and what
lessons can horseplayers assimilate for future use? Much ink has been spilled
attempting to do just that, but a few things that appear to be true:
The Road to
a Classics Victory No Longer Runs Through New York or California
Shocking as
it may seem, classic winners these days rarely come out of the two circuits
with the most bluster and bravado. It has been over a decade since either a
Wood Memorial or Santa Anita Derby winner has captured a leg of the Triple
Crown—2000 Wood victor Fusaichi Pegasus won the Kentucky Derby, while Santa
Anita Derby winner Point Given took out both the Preakness and Belmont in 2001.
[Correction: my mind is obviously fading. As commenter Frank rightly notes, Wood winner Empire Maker did capture the Belmont in 2003, so it's not quite as bad for New York]. Of course, Rags to Riches won the Santa Anita Oaks en route to her Belmont
victory, while Preakness winner Lookin at Lucky managed a third-place finish in
the Santa Anita Derby. Otherwise, the West Coast route has come up barren,
although whether or not that is due strictly to mandated synthetic surfaces is
debatable now that Santa Anita has returned to dirt.
New York has
fared no better. Once the prep race of Triple Crown victors—won by Gallant Fox,
Count Fleet, Assault, and Seattle Slew (both Omaha and Secretariat finished
third)—the Wood Memorial has lost much of its prestige in recent years. Wood runner-up
Jazil did subsequently win the 2006 Belmont as did Wood runner-up [correction: winner] Empire Maker
in 2003, but for the past three years, its winners (I Want Revenge, Eskendereya
and Toby’s Corner) have failed to even make the Derby field due to injury (a
fate similar to that of Wood third-place finisher Uncle Mo), which begs the
question “Is the Wood Memorial cursed?”
The Road to a Classics Victory Runs Through…New Mexico, Louisiana
and Arkansas
In terms of
reputation and history, New York and California denizens may lord over their perceived
superiority in racing quality. However, recent 3-year-old prep races don’t bear
that out as fact. In fact, by the looks of it, the best 3-year-olds now prep
off the beaten path, so to speak—in Louisiana, Arkansas and New Mexico.
Certainly,
Florida continues to offer solid prep races with both the G2 Tampa Bay Derby
and G1 Florida Derby. The former has perhaps fallen a bit in reputation since
Street Sense’s 2007 victory, with only third-place finisher Super Saver going
on to Kentucky Derby success. However, the Florida Derby still appears to be
strong, with recent winners Empire Maker, Barbaro and Big Brown. This year’s
runner-up Shackleford captured Preakness glory, while last year’s winner Ice
Box finished an impressive second in Kentucky. That said, it’s really the “lesser”
circuits that have risen to the top in recent years.
At last
year’s Breeders’ Cup it was my great pleasure to share a box both Friday and
Saturday with Dustin Dix, Sunland Park’s director of racing. He was rightly
proud of Sunland Park—and his track’s “native son”, Kentucky Derby winner Mine
That Bird. The Canadian juvenile champion prepped for his huge Louisville upset
by finishing second in the Borderland Derby and fourth in the Sunland Derby.
While some dismiss his Churchill performance as a “fluke,” how quickly they
forget his fitness level was such that he ran second to Rachel Alexandra in the
Preakness—and finished third behind the fresh Summer Bird and Dunkirk in the
Belmont.
Last year,
Endorsement went from an Oaklawn maiden win, to a near-track record win in the
G3 Sunland Derby, to giving trainer Shannon Ritter a legitimate Kentucky Derby
horse—all within the space of a couple months. Heartbreakingly, he suffered a
non-displaced condylar fracture in his final workout before the Derby, and has
yet to return to race. This year, two classic winners ran at Sunland—Kentucky
Oaks victress Plum Pretty who dominated the Sunland Oaks, and Belmont winner
Ruler On Ice, who finished a late-closing third in the Sunland Derby to Twice
the Appeal who ran a creditable 10th in the Kentucky Derby and runner-up
Astrology who subsequently ran third in the Preakness.
What makes
little out-of-the-way Sunland as successful as of late? While gaming-enriched
purses may be the obvious answer, it’s not the correct one. None of the
aforementioned horses benefited from their winnings to get to where they ended
up—in the winner’s circle at Churchill and Belmont. Instead, perhaps we need to
look at the stamina-building benefits of higher altitude racing, with Sunland
being at nearly 3,800 feet above sea level?
Then again,
at an altitude nearly below sea level, there’s the Louisiana Derby at Fair
Grounds. If ever a race deserved to be elevated to G1 status, it’s this one,
with last year’s third-place finisher Drosselmeyer ultimately winning the
Belmont, and this year’s race producing not only Kentucky Derby runner-up Nehro
and third-place finisher Mucho Macho Man, but also hotly-favored Pants on Fire
who returned from his bleeding-induced poor effort in the Derby to win the G3
Pegasus this past weekend—perhaps on his way to greater glory this summer?
Then there
is Oaklawn’s G1 Arkansas Derby. Has there been a consistently better Triple
Crown prep race in recent years? Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex and Curlin all won
this race, while Super Saver ran second and Summer Bird was third here before
their classic wins. This year’s race featured the ill-fated Derby challenger Archarcharch
as well as Kentucky Derby runner-up Nehro.
3 comments:
Interesting stuff, Val, but one minor quibble: in 2003 Empire Maker won the Wood (instead of being runner-up) but it was the Wood runner-up who made more noise in the Triple Crown: Funny Cide, who won two legs of it.
Ah, Frank, I need a better fact checker! Does it count if you "will" a result to happen, like Funny Cide winning the Wood? :-) That said, it's still nearly been a decade...
Thanks for correcting me so politely :-)
Val,
I haven't been by for a while and love the look of your site...as elegant as your writing. I will be back more often.
I offer that the winter racing in NY and Cali, both having been impacted by rock hard tracks thanks to the sealing done when it rains, causes a myriad of injuries. It's entirely possible that will also occur in Louisiana and Arkansas. I think synthetics are a compelling option and that may leave normally warm California out in the horse racing cold.
With STREET SENSE and ANIMAL KINGDOM both coming off synthetic preps to win the Derby and finish 2nd in the Preakness, it is possible that the Kentucky synthetics give young horses the requisite conditioning in the final prep while protecting their bodies.
Even this year's Blue Grass winner BRILLIANT SPEED closed well against a slow pace in the Derby and loomed dangerously in the Belmont before flattening out for 3rd.
PIONEEROF THE NILE finished 2nd in the '09 Derby after winning the SA Derby on synth. HARD SPUN was 2nd in '07 Derby after winning the Lane's End at TP, completing a synth. exacta. PADDY O'PRADO finished 2nd in the '10 Blue Grass prior to being 3rd in the Derby.
If not for PADDY sideswiping him, I still believe LOOKING AT LUCKY would have won the Derby last year after a troubled 3rd in the SA Derby that you mentioned. Until the Haskell Invitational, Baffert was "lookin at unlucky" when peering down his shed row.
COLONEL JOHN, trained by former Baffert asst. Eoin Harty, had a horrendous trip in the '08 Derby as the 2nd choice to BIG BROWN but Harty brought him back to win the Travers off a Cali synth campaign.
I believe that owners/trainers thinking outside the box, prepping and training on synthetics in Kentucky, will develop more than their share of Classic winners.
To find a Triple Crown winner, that special animal will fly over any surface to join a select group. However, he or she will need to be touched by angels to overcome the inevitable potholes that derail champions.
Thanks for an enjoyable and thought-provoking read!
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