Race Track Twisters

Wednesday’s tornado that hit Churchill Downs damaged barns, but fortunately no horses or people were injured. Back in April, I wrote of the 1915 tornado that damaged the Latonia track and killed 11 race horses on a Pennsylvania Railroad train bound for Windsor, Ontario. Given that history and what happened Wednesday afternoon, I wondered about how often this may have previously occurred. Fortunately, not too often it appears, but still more than one would like.

In June 1916, a tornado hit Oaklawn in Hot Springs, Arkansas, killing at least 80 people in its path. As the June 11 Daily Racing Form noted:

“A majority of the stables were unroofed, the car shed behind the stand was demolished and the paddock wrecked. Most of the glass in the grandstand was broken and considerable damage was done to other parts of the plant.”

In April 1925, the Miami Jockey Club track at Hialeah suffered only minor damage—“the tearing out of one corner of one stable”—when a tornado struck, resulting in less than $200 in damage. However, in September of the following year, the track was not so fortunate, when a devastating storm hit the region, killing over 250 people. The track’s grandstand lost large portions of its roof and several stables were blown down, according to a September 22 New York Times article.

In June 1925, more than 3,000 people were in attendance at Ak-Sar-Ben race track in Omaha when a tornado hit, blowing the grandstand roof off. Amazing, the track survived a massive May 6, 1975 tornado, but race trackers witnessed it pass nearby; track photographer Bob Dunn captured images of it which appear on this website, and he is found discussing the twister in this 2005 retrospective:

In April 1948, one man died and four others injured when a “baby tornado” hit Keeneland just a day before the 11-day spring meet opening; more than 700 horses were stabled at the track, including 100 in the affected barns, but all escaped serious injury. As the Kentucky New Era newspaper noted:

“Two barns filled with horses for the Keeneland race meeting opening today were extensively damaged but none of the animals was hurt. Roofs were torn from both of the barns. Arthur Radel, 40, Louisville, a groom for the Peavy stables, was killed while sleeping in the groom’s quarters of one of the barns...The severe wind storm, accompanied by heavy rain and lightning struck about 2:40 a.m. and raged for more than an hour. The wind, which carried a force of 85 miles an hour, swept across a section of Warren Wright’s Calumet Farm, tearing down fences and uprooting trees. Keeneland officials said today’s race program would be held as scheduled. No damage was done to the track and stands.”

However, probably the worst fright of all occurred during the May 27, 1896 tornado that hit St. Louis. Deemed by the New York Times the country’s worst disaster since the Johnstown flood, over 500 people died in the twister, including it was initially believed 150 people in the collapsedgrandstands of St. Louis Fair Grounds race track when the storm hit shortly after the fifth of six races. Fortunately, those early reports were incorrect. According to contemporary newspaper accounts late compiled in book form by Julian Curzon (pp. 183-187):

“At the Fair Grounds races, 3000 persons received a fright that they will not soon recover from. The roof of the grand stand was blown off and completely demolished, a portion of it striking a horse hitched to a milk wagon on the Natural Bridge road. The horse was killed instantly. No lives were lost, and that such is a fact is indeed miraculous. The rain probably saved many persons from being crushed to death by falling portions of the room. Whenever the visitors at the Fair Grounds are overtaken by a heavy rain all hands either seek the basement or betting ring as places for shelter. When the storm broke the portion of the crowd not in the betting ring at once turned down into the basement. There they escaped being injured.”

“The crashing of the roof on the ground was like the explosion of a hundred cannons and together with the thunder and lightning sent fear to the hearts of every person on the grounds. Every one thought of the cyclone and its terrible ravages and pandemonium reigned for fully fifteen minutes. Women became hysterical and ran around the basement like mad while strong men were terror-stricken and speechless. Only the presence of mind of a few kept the crowd from surging out of the doors leading to the north walk, where certain death from flying timbers awaited them.”

“In the betting ring, where many speculators were in line trying to cash on the fifth race, which had just been run, and others waiting for the odds to be posted on the sixth event, the greatest confusion prevailed when the storm lashed forth in all its fury. The betting shed stood well the test of the wind and the only damage done was the blowing away of the awnings that surrounded the affair. As the wind continued to blow, several hundred persons who fancied that it was only a matter of a few moments when every building on the grounds would be razed to the earth, ran as fast as their legs would carry them across the track to the center field. There they stood amid the thunder and lightning watching the wind spend its fury.”

Racing continued the following day, with only the lower part of the grandstand being used. 

Addendum: 

As one commenter noted, the Great Barrington Fair track suffers a devastating tornado hit, on May 29, 1995. Here's a link to a  recent television retrospective discussing that event with some footage of the destruction.

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Where the Road Runs

With the dust settled from this year’s Triple Crown, what perspective is gained from the seemingly unconventional tactics employed by the various connections and what lessons can horseplayers assimilate for future use? Much ink has been spilled attempting to do just that, but a few things that appear to be true:

The Road to a Classics Victory No Longer Runs Through New York or California 

Shocking as it may seem, classic winners these days rarely come out of the two circuits with the most bluster and bravado. It has been over a decade since either a Wood Memorial or Santa Anita Derby winner has captured a leg of the Triple Crown—2000 Wood victor Fusaichi Pegasus won the Kentucky Derby, while Santa Anita Derby winner Point Given took out both the Preakness and Belmont in 2001. [Correction: my mind is obviously fading. As commenter Frank rightly notes, Wood winner Empire Maker did capture the Belmont in 2003, so it's not quite as bad for New York]. Of course, Rags to Riches won the Santa Anita Oaks en route to her Belmont victory, while Preakness winner Lookin at Lucky managed a third-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby. Otherwise, the West Coast route has come up barren, although whether or not that is due strictly to mandated synthetic surfaces is debatable now that Santa Anita has returned to dirt.

New York has fared no better. Once the prep race of Triple Crown victors—won by Gallant Fox, Count Fleet, Assault, and Seattle Slew (both Omaha and Secretariat finished third)—the Wood Memorial has lost much of its prestige in recent years. Wood runner-up Jazil did subsequently win the 2006 Belmont as did Wood runner-up [correction: winner] Empire Maker in 2003, but for the past three years, its winners (I Want Revenge, Eskendereya and Toby’s Corner) have failed to even make the Derby field due to injury (a fate similar to that of Wood third-place finisher Uncle Mo), which begs the question “Is the Wood Memorial cursed?”

The Road to a Classics Victory Runs Through…New Mexico, Louisiana and Arkansas

In terms of reputation and history, New York and California denizens may lord over their perceived superiority in racing quality. However, recent 3-year-old prep races don’t bear that out as fact. In fact, by the looks of it, the best 3-year-olds now prep off the beaten path, so to speak—in Louisiana, Arkansas and New Mexico.

Certainly, Florida continues to offer solid prep races with both the G2 Tampa Bay Derby and G1 Florida Derby. The former has perhaps fallen a bit in reputation since Street Sense’s 2007 victory, with only third-place finisher Super Saver going on to Kentucky Derby success. However, the Florida Derby still appears to be strong, with recent winners Empire Maker, Barbaro and Big Brown. This year’s runner-up Shackleford captured Preakness glory, while last year’s winner Ice Box finished an impressive second in Kentucky. That said, it’s really the “lesser” circuits that have risen to the top in recent years.

At last year’s Breeders’ Cup it was my great pleasure to share a box both Friday and Saturday with Dustin Dix, Sunland Park’s director of racing. He was rightly proud of Sunland Park—and his track’s “native son”, Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird. The Canadian juvenile champion prepped for his huge Louisville upset by finishing second in the Borderland Derby and fourth in the Sunland Derby. While some dismiss his Churchill performance as a “fluke,” how quickly they forget his fitness level was such that he ran second to Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness—and finished third behind the fresh Summer Bird and Dunkirk in the Belmont. 

Last year, Endorsement went from an Oaklawn maiden win, to a near-track record win in the G3 Sunland Derby, to giving trainer Shannon Ritter a legitimate Kentucky Derby horse—all within the space of a couple months. Heartbreakingly, he suffered a non-displaced condylar fracture in his final workout before the Derby, and has yet to return to race. This year, two classic winners ran at Sunland—Kentucky Oaks victress Plum Pretty who dominated the Sunland Oaks, and Belmont winner Ruler On Ice, who finished a late-closing third in the Sunland Derby to Twice the Appeal who ran a creditable 10th in the Kentucky Derby and runner-up Astrology who subsequently ran third in the Preakness. 

What makes little out-of-the-way Sunland as successful as of late? While gaming-enriched purses may be the obvious answer, it’s not the correct one. None of the aforementioned horses benefited from their winnings to get to where they ended up—in the winner’s circle at Churchill and Belmont. Instead, perhaps we need to look at the stamina-building benefits of higher altitude racing, with Sunland being at nearly 3,800 feet above sea level?

Then again, at an altitude nearly below sea level, there’s the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds. If ever a race deserved to be elevated to G1 status, it’s this one, with last year’s third-place finisher Drosselmeyer ultimately winning the Belmont, and this year’s race producing not only Kentucky Derby runner-up Nehro and third-place finisher Mucho Macho Man, but also hotly-favored Pants on Fire who returned from his bleeding-induced poor effort in the Derby to win the G3 Pegasus this past weekend—perhaps on his way to greater glory this summer?

Then there is Oaklawn’s G1 Arkansas Derby. Has there been a consistently better Triple Crown prep race in recent years? Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex and Curlin all won this race, while Super Saver ran second and Summer Bird was third here before their classic wins. This year’s race featured the ill-fated Derby challenger Archarcharch as well as Kentucky Derby runner-up Nehro. 

Finally, how can we forget Preakness winner Rachel Alexandra, whose entire 3-year-old campaign prior to her dominating Kentucky Oaks win was contested at Oaklawn and Fair Grounds? Off-the-beaten path has become the road to victory it seems.

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Final Belmont Ponderings

Despite the awful weather, Saturday’s Belmont Stakes was exciting, the kind of race we should be used to seeing by now—the totally unexpected happens, and a longshot wins, this time “nutty” Ruler On Ice whose stamina pedigree on paper was highly suspect. However, any casual observer should have noticed that the Belmont track had favored front-running speed horses over the past couple days, and wagered accordingly. Obviously, the equipment change to blinkers on worked, so kudos to trainer Kelly Breen.

Amidst all the sour grapes, what a damn shame Jose Valdivia Jr. isn’t getting more attention. His post-race comments on track were fabulous—articulate, genuine and humble. Seriously photogenic too—a truly well-deserved win for a jockey who isn’t usually in the spotlight.

Given the sloppy track and on-speed bias, I thought Shackleford had a serious shot for a placing, but that last furlong was just too much. Third-place finisher Brilliant Speed ran true to his stamina pedigree, as did runner-up Stay Thirsty. When I saw him break so well and be up on pace early, I knew my pick had a serious shot at winning. I never thought it would be Ruler On Ice to defeat him, though. Ah, live and learn—but at least I made more money than I lost with my generous WPS bets on Stay Thirsty. Barring Ruler On Ice, I’m pleased I had three of the top four runners highlighted over at Hello Race Fans!—and that was without considering a possible wet track.

When the rain came, I exempted Animal Kingdom from all my exotics, and never once considered everyone’s wise-guy pick Master of Hounds—he was my biggest throw out. Yes, his pedigree is decent for 12 furlongs, but he’s only won one race—why do we Americans assume European horses are better distance runners, especially on dirt, even when they lack form? I don’t get it. Do we have that much of a cultural inferiority complex when it comes to racing?

My picks this year over at The Paulick Report’s Derby/Preakness/Belmont Index were spot on. I had Animal Kingdom as my second choice in the Derby, hit Shackleford on the nose in the Preakness, and my pick Stay Thirsty finished second in the Belmont. Unfortunately, I can’t quit my day job—yet. Thus, the dream lives on...

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Stay Thirsty, My Friend

Post positions for the Belmont Stakes have been drawn, with Derby winner Animal Kingdom (9) and Preakness victor Shackleford (12) outside of Nehro (6), but flanking Mucho Macho Man (10). Euro invader Master of Hounds who shipped in Tuesday gets the rail, followed by Stay Thirsty (2), Ruler On Ice (3), Santiva (4), Brilliant Speed (5), Monzon (7), Prime Cut (8) and Isn’t He Perfect (11).

Perhaps I’m just being stubborn—or plain stupid—but I’m banking on an upset by Stay Thirsty. Considering his last two efforts, that’s kinda crazy, eh? It’s not that I don’t like the Derby and Preakness winners, or the newly-shod Mucho Macho Man and hot-shot Nehro. I’d actually be pretty pleased if any of them take it. However, purely on pedigree, Stay Thirsty has a huge shot—and we’ve previously seen how much pedigree counts when attempting 12 furlongs (remember Da’Tara, Summer Bird, Drosselmeyer?). 

The argument that he’s “too slow” doesn’t ring true when none of these colts have set the track on fire this year. While this crop may not be as bad as once feared given how highly competitive with one another (and thus interesting) they are, collectively they are—without a doubt—slow as molasses. In the Belmont, the real test will be one of pace and endurance, and certainly Animal Kingdom has the breeding to back up his previous form. I’m just willing to take a gamble on Stay Thirsty improving.

The fact that he’s by A.P. Indy’s son Bernardini covers his sire line stamina evaluation well enough, but it’s his dam line that’s even more intriguing. His Storm Bird dam Marozia won only once in her nine-race career, but it was going 12 furlongs on turf. She’s also produced a half-brother to Stay Thirsty, Andromeda’s Hero (Fusaichi Pegasus) who finished a distant second to Afleet Alex in the Belmont.

Both his second dam Make Change (Roberto) and his third dam Equal Change (Arts and Letters) placed in the G1 Coaching Club American Oaks when it was 12 furlongs—Make Change running third behind Goodbye Halo, while Equal Change ran second to Ruffian in her 1975 stakes record equaling effort.

 

In addition to Roberto who won both the Epsom Derby and Coronation Cup at 12 furlongs, Stay Thirsty’s direct dam line boasts Belmont Stakes winners Arts and Letters and Cavan, as well as Derby/Preakness victor Bold Venture, injured and retired before he could complete the Triple Crown. Stay Thirsty’s unraced fifth dam Equal Venture was a full sister to Triple Crown winner Assault, and in the breeding shed produced Prove Out who not only defeated Secretariat in the 12-furlong Woodward, but also Riva Ridge in the 16-furlong (yes, 2 miles) Jockey Club Gold Cup. 

Other immediate family members include Italian Group 1 runner-up Age of Reason who, now racing in Dubai, regularly wins or places between 12 and 16 furlongs; and Shamaiel, an English listed stakes winner at 14 furlongs. 

No, trainer Todd Pletcher isn’t exactly exuding confidence in Stay Thirsty:

He's as good as he can be coming into the race. We'rehopeful that he can handle the mile-and-a-half distance. We won't know until wetry it but his pedigree suggests he could handle it. We're under the radar abit. There's no pressure so we can just come into it and have fun.

That said, I’m willing to risk pedigree over current form with this lesser-than-stellar crop. Come Saturday night, I’ll either be brilliant or a fool—stay turned, my friends!

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