An Open Letter to Todd Pletcher

Dear Todd,

I know your Triple Crown season has not gone as planned thus far, with highly regarded horses like Circular Quay, Any Given Saturday, Scat Daddy, Cowtown Cat, King of the Roxy, and Sam P. failing to perform to expectations.

However, not all is lost. I—and thousands of other horse racing fans—urge you to run Rags to Riches against the boys in the Belmont Stakes. She is big, fast and bred for the distance—and just what the sport needs at this moment: an exciting new dimension added to an already confused three-year-old campaign.

There is no one dominant colt—first we thought it was Street Sense, then Curlin foiled that, and now Street Sense’s owner doesn’t want to ruin his future breeding revenue by possibly losing two in a row to Curlin or yet another horse. Hard Spun will not be drawn into an early speed duel with Garrett Gomez aboard, so the pace shouldn’t be blistering. Tiago will be there in the end, but he's a midget compared to your physically dominating filly.

So, how about it? Of course, do this only if she is sound and healthy. Give Edgar Prado a call, and let her run.

Street Sense: No Sense in Ruining Our Future Cents (or Millions)

“We went over a lot of situations last night, the decision was made. There were a lot of reasons to run and a lot of reasons not to run. Mr. Tafel wanted the Triple Crown like you can’t believe. It really deflated us. I told Mr. Tafel the horse is in great shape. He’s doing good. We worked him a light half, so it set him up that we could bounce either way.”

In all honesty, I am not surprised by the announcement today that Street Sense will by-pass the Belmont in favor of a fall campaign driven towards winning the Travers and Breeders’ Cup Classic. The Travers is August 25. The Breeders’ Cup is October 27. As preps, they are talking about the Jim Dandy (July 29) or Haskell (August 5). Is this really about a horse physically or mentally in sub-par condition to take on Curlin and the rest of the Belmont field, or is this about something else? Note the quote above: “I told Mr. Tafel the horse is in great shape.” Doesn’t seem to suggest that this decision is based on any health concerns. More revealing, I think, is the answer trainer Carl Nafzger gave when someone ask about a four-year-old campaign for Street Sense:

“Knowing the offers that are coming in on this horse, which I don’t know the details of, but I know it’s getting economically impossible to run.”

This decision was ultimately about money, pure and simple. The potential value of stud fees for a horse that could end up winning both the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Classic, and being named Horse of the Year. I hate being a cynic; however, this is not an emotional reaction to the situation, but one that recognizes, on one level, its complete common sense and logic, while on the other, despises the prevalence in our society of greed over sport. And don’t think for a moment otherwise. There were no excuses given during the press conference concerning injury or other physical concerns other than the generic:

"When a person is growing up and maturing, they need time to let the body catch up with itself and he’s a horse that’s going to develop more and get stronger," Nafzger said. "If he doesn’t, we won’t win the Breeders’ Cup Classic."

Also, the mental concern for his alleged tendency to “idle on the lead” was addressed:

"My horse has got to mature in one aspect … he’s got to learn that when he gets the lead not to lose his intensity," Nafzger said. "He doesn’t come out of the bit, but he loses intensity. We’re hoping that in this time of 60 that we have until the next race that maybe this horse … will get over that."

Now, I ask you, prior to the Preakness, did anyone observe this phenomenon? I know if it had been written down somewhere, handicappers everywhere would be analyzing it to death. Did Nafzger or Borel address it in any way? Or did this excuse du jour become a weak attempt at justifying staying out of the Belmont? If there is no real physical or mental issue, let’s just vaguely talk about hypothetical growth spurts and previously-unrecognized race tendencies. I’m not buying it. Just call it what it is: a business decision. And move on.

Bless those Jerkenses

A good day at the OTW today, as I had a $2 win bet on Corinthian ($21.60) and $1 exacta box on Corinthian and Political Force ($142.50). Hey, I’m an architectural historian…how could I not bet on Corinthian (see pic)? Also had the $1 tri in Race 5 ($116), but wish I had paid closer attention to my fellow TBA blogger Alan’s picks for Belmont, as he was spot on in many races. However, did anyone suspect Big Daddy Rex would ramble home in the second for the win, to the tune of $123.00? The 11-7-2 tri paid $5,563.00. Urgh! Could have gotta my house painted for that...Had Akronism ($15.00) for the win at Delaware in the 8th, and popped a 10 cent super in race 10 at Churchill ($29.54). Total wins: $324.64 (minus about $75 in bets, thus profit of about $250.)

Other news of note today:
• Nine-year-old The Tin Man won the G1 Shoemaker Breeders’ Cup at Hollywood Park. Get Funky (16-1) and Willow O Wisp (13-1) filled out the exotics, paying a nice $777.80 for the $1 tri.
• Another father-son duo, this time jockeys Joe Rocco and Joe Rocco, Jr., pulled off the exacta in race 5 at Delaware Park today. Son (Unplugged) beat father (Look of Love) for payoff of $125.80.
• There will be a $262,675 pick six carryover at Belmont, when racing resumes on Thursday.
• Sprinter Friendly Island, currently third on the TBA ranking of sprinters (behind Silver Wagon and Ah Day), has been retired due to an ankle injury.
• There’s talk that Sedgefield may aim for the Belmont Stakes after a strong workout on Monday. I still believe he’s a turf/polytrack horse, but he finished well for fifth in the Derby. However, my money is still on Tiago!
• Finally, 1978 Melbourne Cup winner Arwon was euthanized at age 33 on Friday; he was in good health and eating well, but had trouble standing.

Sometimes the Old Guys Surprise You

Classic Campaign scratched from the Elkwood Stakes, and Host overcame several problems to finish strongly for the win over Bestowed. Park Avenue Ball did well early on before weakening to finish sixth of seven. In the Sheepshead, Honey Ryder prevailed over Safari Queen with Hostess completing the trifecta. La Dolce Vita finished fourth. Ken McPeek had Drilling for Oil ready in the G3 Louisville Handicap, but Always First was gaining rapidly at the end, only good enough for place. Ramazutti with Calvin Borel up finished third, followed by Cloudy’s Knight in fourth and Louve des Reves in eighth.

Without a doubt, the biggest upset of the day was at Arlington, where in the G3 Hanshin Cup Handicap, the longest shot in the field, 81-1 Spotsgone pulled off the upset win over Lewis Michael and Gouldings Green, with 60-year-old Hall of Fame jockey Earlie Fires aboard. The victory paid $165.00, $38.00, and $9.60, with $660.60 exacta, and $3,659.60 trifecta. Wow! Watch the video (link in the story); it’s awesome.

O Fair Maidens

My thanks to fellow TBA blogger Quinella Queen for guiding me to maiden Zippy Chippy, whose 0 for 100 record is actually not the American record-holder for most races without a victory. A gelding who raced in the 1950s, Thrust (Bold Salute-Stitching, out of Sting) still holds the record, with 105 starts, no wins, 5 places, and 7 shows. Odd, as Thrust’s granddaddy was Bold Venture, Kentucky Derby and Preakness Winner, and his great-great granddaddy was the great Swynford. On his dam’s side, he was descended from Man o’ War. Just go to show breeding isn’t everything.

I also found the longest losing streak in the world is the Japanese mare Haru Urara, who was 0 for 113 before retiring in 2006. The British gelding Quixall Crossett retired in 2002 with 103 losses without a victory. So, since all three of these recent “losers” are retired, does that make Four Acres (at 0 for 65) the current “loser” or is there another perpetual maiden running out there on some bush track in America?

"Gomez to Ride Hard Spun in Belmont"

The DRF headline says it all, “Gomez to ride Hard Spin in Belmont”. I think we all saw that coming. Hard Spun is obviously a speedy, talented colt who may be able to break through and demonstrate his full potential with a change in rider. Maybe, maybe not. But, if I could get the best jockey in the country, Garrett Gomez, to agree to ride my horse, believe me, I take the chance and make the change. I think this answers the question about Rags to Riches going in the Belmont, too. As her regular rider, I hardly think Gomez would jump off her for Hard Spun (no offense). Moreover, Pletcher’s number one rider John Velazquez now has the mount on Slew’s Tizzy. So, where does that leave Todd Pletcher’s horses? Will we actually see a major stakes race this year without a Pletcher entry? My God, is the world ending? (I’m being sarcastic here).

It was announced earlier in the week that Nobiz Like Shobiz would pass on the Belmont, but now Great Hunter is out for at least 90 days, with a bone chip in his right front ankle. That leaves five starters for the Belmont: Hard Spun, Curlin, Slew’s Tizzy, Imawildandcrazyguy and Tiago. We should know early in the week if Street Sense makes six.

Quick Picks for Saturday

A couple quick picks before heading out to the pool for the day!

In the G2 Sheepshead Bay Handicap at Belmont, I’m going against prevailing wisdom and picking La Dolce Vita to pull off the upset over Safari Queen and Honey Ryder. For the G3 Louisville Handicap at Churchill Downs, I like Always First to prevail over Cloudy’s Knight and the mare Louve Des Reves. Finally, at Arlington, in the G3 Hanshin Cup Handicap, I’m picking Purim to win, with Gouldings Green and Lewis Michael filling out the trifecta. At Monmouth, I like Bill Mott’s Classic Campaign to return to the winner’s circle in the Elkwood Stakes, off two very sharp recent workouts. We’ll see if Todd Pletcher’s Host is ready after his crushingly disappointing showing in the G1 Sheema Classic in Dubai. And I’m looking at Park Avenue Ball to improve.

Preview for the Weekend's Races, including Cobalt Blue's Return

Looking over the PP’s for the coming weekend, I see that Cobalt Blue (Golden Missile) is entered in the $75,000 Alydar Stakes (1-1/8 mile) at Hollywood Park (race 8). Also entered are previous-Derby trail colts Level Red (Aptitude), who finished last in the Santa Anita Derby most recently (and was beaten by Cobalt Blue two back in the San Felipe), and Pirates Deputy (Bertrando) who ran disappointingly in the Sham.

Indian War Dance, who was scratched from Wednesday’s race 2 at Belmont, is entered as a MTO entry in Saturday’s Elkwood Stakes (1 mile turf) at Monmouth (race 10). Prime contenders in that race are Bill Mott’s Classic Campaign who failed as the favorite last time out in the G3 Miami Mile Breeders’ Cup Handicap at Calder, and Park Avenue Ball who suffered a similar fate last out in the Artax Handicap at Gulfstream. Todd Pletcher’s Host who finished extremely poorly in March’s G1 Dubai Sheema Classic is also entered here.

Dreadnaught, who ran fifth of 11 in the tragic G2 Dixie Handicap at Pimlico on Preakness Day, comes back one week later to run in the Eight Thirty Stakes (1-1/8 mile turf) at Delaware on Saturday (race 7). His main competition looks to be Shug McGaughey’s Minister’s Joy who last finished second by a nose to Jade’s Revenge in the G3 Benali Stakes at Keeneland on April 26. Also running with be Shadwell Stables’ Kiaran McLaughlin-trained Shakis who hasn’t been in the money running in the UAE this year, and finished poorly in 2006 G1 Dubai World Cup, but seems to be training well this year at Belmont and probably benefits from added Lasix. Another interesting addition to this field is steeplechaser Mixed Up, who has been running in (and winning) G1 extreme route races (2 miles plus) for the past three years, including winning the G1 Royal Chase for the Sport of Kings.

Bold Start (Jump Start), who last finished third (as the favorite) in the Derby Trial, starts for Ken McPeek in OC80Kn2x (1-1/16 mile) at Churchill Downs on Saturday (race 4). Small field, but look for third time (undefeated) starter Mount Wilton (Graeme Hall) to give BS all he can handle at this distance.

Churchill’s race 10 on Saturday—the G3 Louisville Handicap (1-1/2 mile turf)—looks like a rerunning of Keeneland’s G3 Elkhorn (April 27), with the second through sixth place finishers back here (Always First, Drilling for Oil, Transduction Gold, Cloudy’s Knight, and Ramazutti). Add to the mix the second and third place finishers in March’s G3 Pan American Handicap at Gulfstream (Hotstufanthensome and Fri Guy), and this is a tough handicapping challenge. I'll probably weigh in my picks later in the week.

Wednesday Results

Question answered: Summer Doldrums can run on the turf, finishing second behind the impressive Strike a Deal, and just ahead of the other son of Smart Strike, Twilight Meteor in race 7 at Belmont. I did go with Le Dauphin who finished fourth (Angelouie scratched), so no payoff here. However, I did have Dance Away Capote for the win in the Yank’s Music Stakes ($12.20), although not the tri as Dina finished out of the equation. I also had Fancy Runner ($16.60) for the win in race 2; I liked the fact that jockey Clyde Martin, who has consistently ridden this horse over the past two years, had John Grossi claim it a race back and began training it himself. That jock really knows his horse! Also got the $1 exacta in race 1 ($11.40), with Smokin Lu and Al’s Lark (only because my best friend Lu and I used to fanatically follow then-Washington Capital defenseman Al Iafrate when we were in graduate school). With Silver Ferrari’s scratch in race 3, I went with Bound Notebook (who won), Rondo (second) and…Bold Mon (fourth) in my $1 trif…urgh! Race 4 was way off, as all three of my picks were out of the money, while again I had two of three in my tri finish in the money (Port Royal, and Blazing Dynamo who I did also just bet to win, paying $9.20) in race 6. I love Dynaformer horses, plus my dog’s name is Blaze :) I missed the tri in race 9, playing Texas Elegance (win), Dubliner (place) and…Topsail (fourth); I debated between the latter and Triple Bogey Blues (who showed). Should have gone with the superfecta there, as it paid $938. Oh, well. Could have, should have, would have…

I did get the 10 cent superfecta at Delaware in race 2, which paid $57.59, and in race 8 at Churchill, paying $16.35. Also, had the win bet on Sea Inlet in race 8 at Delaware ($16.00), so not a bad day. Certainly better than coming home with nothing.

There were 99 winning tickets in the huge Pick 6 at Hollywood Park, each paying $29,775.

Finally, poor Four Acres at Suffolk Downs! Still 0 for 65, finishing in the middle of the pack. Does anyone know what the record is for the most maiden starts before a winning effort?

Wednesday at the OTW Facility

My group of gambling girlfriends—the YaYas—are off to the OTW facility on Wednesday, after partaking of some 5 Guys hamburgers (only the best hamburgers in the world). I have prepped for Belmont (one of my favorite late spring tracks), some Delaware and Churchill races, and looked at Suffolk Downs. I will probably take a stab at Hollywood’s Pick 6 before I leave there too…with a carryover of $850,466, why the hell not?

At Belmont, a highlight for me will be race 7, the $65,000 Straight Deal Stakes (1 mile turf), as two of my early spring favorite 3 year olds, Twilight Meteor and Summer Doldrums, will be running. This is a fascinating match-up, as Twilight Meteor (like Curlin) is out of Smart Strike, while Summer Doldrums (like Street Sense) is out of Street Cry. The latter has never tried turf before and trainer Richard Violette has a poor “first on grass” record (8% wins in 77 starts), plus I’m sure he will be overbet, so regretfully I will pass on him. Pletcher’s first-call jock John Velazquez returns to ride Twilight Meteor who last failed as the favorite in the G2 Lane’s End. Four of his six starts thus far have been on turf, where he is 2-1-0. That said, I may pass on him here as the pattern of his recent workouts concerns me. So, who do I like? Admiral Bird returns after a six-month layoff, with Garrett Gomez back up, and looks good here, especially with hot trainer Clement Christophe. The same is probably true of another son of Smart Strike, Strike A Deal, whose last race was a victory in the Laurel Futurity back in November, over 1-1/16 mile turf. I am looking at Bill Mott’s Le Dauphin to fill out my trifecta bet. He has had excellent workouts since last race (March 26 at Gulfstream). I may also try Angelouie who is coming off a maiden victory 18 days ago at Belmont, but was just edged out in two previous, including losing by a nose to Lattice who won an turf allowance race at Churchill Downs on May 18.

Race 8, the Yank’s Music Stakes, has only 6 fillies and mares going 1-1/16 mile. Shug McGaughey’s Altesse looked impressive getting a hand ride victory last time out (April 13), but I’m not crazy about her here, as her three wins have all come at 1 mile distance. I am a big Dynaformer fan, so that appeals to me about James Jerkens’ entry Dina. However, except for a big race at Aqueduct back in February (Rare Treat Handicap), there’s not much to indicate enough late speed recently. Jerkens’ other (uncoupled) entry, Ring True, last year’s winner of the Xtraheat Stakes, looks like a sprinter to me, so is she a rabbit here? Darley Stable’s Veneti gets Eibar Coa back, with whom she won twice at Aqueduct last November, but again I’m not sure about the extra distance (and the step up). I am actually leaning towards Barclay Tagg’s Dance Away Capote, making her third start this year, who broke awkwardly on the polytrack at Keeneland in the G3 Double Dog Dare Stakes in April. Sugar Swirl looks to be the early speed, and may have enough to hang on for a piece of the pie.

In race 2 at Belmont, Pangburn runs again just one week after winning at 6 furlongs; is it too much to ask him to go 1-1/8 mile so quickly? My first pick here, though, is longshot Fancy Runner who is coming off three route wins, and two strong workouts. He bested Fit Faze in April at Aqueduct, but that horse came back to win at Belmont on May 9 in a $35K claiming race. They match up again here. Finally, I’ll take a long look at Pay Attention, who won last out and has strong workout 5 days ago.

In the other races at Belmont, I will be betting the following:

Race 3: Rondo, Bold Mon and Silver Ferrari
Race 4: Josefina’s Pride, Twilight Gallop, and Trophy Pride
Race 6: Holiday Trip, Blazing Dynamo, and Port Royal

In addition to Belmont, in the ninth race at Suffolk Downs (a $5,000 maiden claiming race over 6 furlongs), I will be rooting like hell for six-year-old gelding Four Acres who is attempting his first victory in 65 races. My god, you would think they would have given up on this horse by now! He has only earned $11,608 over the years, placing 5 times and showing 7 times. His last time out (one week ago) he finished dead last, 42 lengths behind the winner at 1 mile. Maybe the shorter distance will help him?

Rags to Riches: 50-50 to Start in Belmont Stakes

The DRF is reporting that the filly Rags to Riches may run in the Belmont Stakes: "I would say we're sitting right on the middle of the fence," Pletcher said in his barn office. "We're going to monitor two things basically, how she trains and who shows up, then make a decision."

"Pletcher said if Street Sense, Curlin, and Hard Spun all run in the Belmont, Rags to Riches would wait for the Grade 1 Mother Goose on June 30. If only two of the three run, he would consider it more strongly and even stronger still should only [one]of the top three run in the Belmont."

And so it begins...

Wouldn't it be ironic if Pletcher's first Triple Crown win was with a filly rather than his colts?

The Best Horse Won...This Day

I too may be in the minority, but I do believe the best horse won the Preakness. While repeatedly saying there was no excuse, Borel did note that Street Sense seems to lose focus about 40 yards from the finish line, maybe due to the crowd. Ramon Dominguez said exactly the same thing about Chelokee in the Barbaro Stakes: "He lost focus a bit on the turn, so I had to get after him a little bit to get his attention." Even Nafzger said, "When my horse gets to the lead, he's just sort of happy. He won't quit running, but he's not intense." I don’t think you blame that on the jockey, entirely. Yes, maybe Street Sense sensed that cocky assurance that Borel and Nafzger felt that their horse was unbeatable, and maybe Borel assumed Curlin and every other horse in the field was beaten before he took a quick peek back, but I don’t think that Curlin was going to be denied this day. A gutsy performance proved this colt has stepped up his game to a new level. I do think Mario Pino took Hard Spun to the lead too early and thus too wide at the far turn. Not that he would have won this day…

I love the physicality of Curlin and his jockey Robby Albarado is a nice guy, but it pisses me off to no end that a trainer like Steve Asmussen is reaping the benefits of Helen Pitts’ labor. After the race, he said, “I think that I was the right person for this horse at this time, and I think (jockey) Robby (Albarado) was the right rider for this horse at this time. It fell together that well, just as his career did from his first race. We were just the right people at the right time and very fortunate to be sitting up here after winning a classic." Yea, the right trainer who was given this horse by owners who had the biggest purse to buy their way into a winner. Like my fellow TBA blogger Superfecta, I agree with Andy Beyer that it will be difficult to root for Curlin with such an unlikable supporting cast around him, but I’m not going to hold that against him. He's a very good horse who may be a great horse...that remains to be seen.

In the Maryland BC Sprint, Diabolical held off Talent Search and Semaphore Man. Flashy Bull put a head in front of Hesanoldsalt to win the Schaefer, with Ryan’s For Real getting show. The Dixie Handicap saw the most tragic result of the day, as leader Mending Fences broke down as they entered the far turn, causing Einstein’s jockey Robbie Albarado to jump off his mount. Remarkable News avoided the fallen horse to win by less than one length over Cosmonaut who literally had to jump the fallen Mending Fences, and was gaining as the race ended. Outperformance got show. Despite the accident, Remarkable News (with Ramon Dominguez up) set a course-record time of 1:46 1/5 for the 1 1/8 miles on grass. Mending Fences was euthanized after suffering a compound fracture of his right front ankle.


In the Hirsch Jacobs (photo above), Southwestern Heat blazed out to the lead, set impressive fractions (22.66, 45.17 and 57.59) before Rafael Bejarano brought Street Magician up, tight to the rail, they bumped, and then, as the Equibase Footnotes say, Southwestern Heat “gave way grudgingly.” Even though he finished second (2-1/2 lengths ahead of Hobbitontherocks), Southwestern Heat continues to impress me, in his first stakes attempt. Geez, he is only one race removed from a maiden, and nearly beats a horse that won the Aventura Stakes in March, and last ran in the G3 Withers! Where we will see SW Heat next? It is probably too much to see him back in two weeks for the G3 Aristides BC (6f) on June 2 at Churchill Downs, but the 6-furlong Rumson Stakes at Monmouth on June 10 and the G3 Jersey Shore BC Stakes on July 4 might be a good fit. Watch the Hirsch Jacobs here (video)

The most touching moment of the day was Michael Matz winning the inaugural Barbaro Stakes with Chelokee, and tearing up after the race, and while receiving congratulations from Roy and Gretchen Jackson. A dignified and apropos recognition of Barbaro's memory.

Friday Results

At Churchill in race 4, Royal Dazzle hung on to ruin my $1 tri. Longshot Ready to Goes came in for the win ($27.00) with Dress Uniform finishing third, followed by Aidan’s Bella (question answered: Ura Wild Won could not get the distance). I was all over Play Maker Fever ($8.40) in race 5, but Subtle Reaction and An Heir to Magic didn’t show up, while Cherokee Nation was scratched. I did get the 10 cent superfecta in race 7, but it only paid $27.21. Star of Luvina finished on top, followed by Lily’s Place, Even Tempo and Unforgotten (which was a big surprise finishing so poorly). Unfortunately, because it was such a long day, I didn’t stick around to play races 10 and 11, but had the superfecta picked in the 10th, with Lattice edging out Niagara Causeway, followed by This Is That and Malamezze. In race 11, only Pure Silk (who went off as the favorite) showed ($3.00); Adorable Cat finished dead last and showed nothing. Fast Included finished fourth, and Brilliant Humor only started running after the race was half over, going 9 wide on the final turn to improve position.

I came up empty with my trifecta plays at Pimlico—I should have played exactas. In race 1, Inside Risk and Elizabeth Street finished one-two ($19.00), but Tattletale Twist was no factor, finishing fifth. In race 2, Sweetamygee and Honor Student finished one-two ($10.20), but Westside Lady finished last. In race 3, the favorite Helsinki won, Love Tour finished third…superlongshot Thundering On By placed, paying $33.40 and $9.60. Ticonderoga finished 5th, Yankee Pride 6th, and Red Boomerang 8th. In race 8, Love Scene was scratched. Blondie’s Halos ($7.60) finished second, with the favorite Divine Plan finishing out of the money, in 5th. In race 9 (The Very One Stakes), both Carryanun and Smart and Fancy were scratches, leaving Unbridled Sidney the clear favorite and easy winner, nearly breaking the track record by going 55.77 for the five furlongs on turf. The big surprise was Pletcher’s South Necking (with Garrett Gomez up) finishing completely out of the money, in 4th. However, Gomez redeemed himself in race 11 (Allaire Dupont BC Distaff) bringing in Steve Asmussen’s Rolling Sea over Leah’s Secret and favorite Kettleoneup; unfortunately, instead of the winner, I played Fiery Pursuit who stopped in the stretch after leading most of the way. Finally, in race 12 (Black-Eyed Susan Stakes), Enchanting Star gave it her best shot, but couldn’t stay on. It was Panty Raid (with Edgar Prado making an excellent inside move late) for the win, followed by Winning Point and the favorite Baroness Thatcher.

I didn’t post my Belmont picks, but actually hit two $1 trifectas there today, in race 3 ($45.75) and race 4 ($27.25). The out-of-nowhere winner at Belmont was Il Posto’s Bambina in race 5, who paid $115.50 to win, and along with Cagey Girl, resulted in a $1010.00 exacta, and with Royal Spaulding (show), a mind-blowing $5,151.00 trifecta. Finally, bless his heart, in race 8 (Wagon Limit Stakes) Funny Cide went to a huge lead and looked as if he was planning on wiring the 1-1/2 mile race; unfortunately, he was caught by Rising Moon and Malibu Moonshine, but managed to hang on for show. For awhile there, it was like he was three-years-old again...really beautiful to see.

Preakness Saturday

Analyzing the Preakness is much easier, and just as difficult, as the Kentucky Derby was. There are a whole lot fewer horses, but the only contenders still have varied factors that can affect how things play out. The biggest factor at this point is the possibility (again) of an off-track, and how that could temper any closing move Circular Quay could make. Honestly, I do not see Street Sense winning, but would be pleased to be wrong. I’m playing Hard Spun here for the win, with Street Sense in second and Xchanger staying on for third. Curlin is the wildcard for me. I love his physical appearance, and his Tomlinson number is over 400 so he should do well if there is an off-track, but his workout between the Derby and this race was not good (4f ft :51 B 51/54). I don’t know…he did an equally-unimpressive workout before the Arkansas Derby, and won by 10 lengths.

Also on the Preakness Day card is the Maryland BC Sprint, where I’m picking Talent Search, over Semaphore Man and Fleet Valid. The Dixie Handicap should see Cosmonaut defeat Einstein, with Mending Fences for show, while in the Schaefer Handicap I’m going with the chalky Hesanoldsalt over Flashy Bull and Two Sixty Four.


Finally, in the Hirsch Jacobs Stakes, let me reiterate my unwavering support for Southwestern Heat, despite undefeated (polytrack) Canadian invader Like Mom Like Sons and another Street Cry offspring, Street Magician. With a morning line of 15-1, Southwestern Heat is the longest shot in the field. Sports Town is scratched, having won the Ogygian Stakes at Belmont on May 16.

Tim Salzman, trainer of Southwestern Heat, says the colt may race at Belmont during the current meet. Yay! Salzman also has a two-year-old Storm Cat colt from Xtra Heat named X Rated Cat. “He’s a big, broad colt,” Salzman said. “He’s already bigger than Southwestern Heat. He’s still pretty far from his first start, but I think he’s got a lot of promise. Having a horse like him makes you get up in the morning.”

Xtra Heat is an amazing broodmare, having successfully produced four foals in four tries. In addition to Southwestern Heat (Gone West) and X Rated Cat (Storm Cat), there are two unnamed fillies, by Elusive Quality in 2006 and by Unbridled’s Song, born April 24, 2007. She’s being bred back to Songandaprayer next.

Friday Handicapping Part Deux: Pimlico

Given the 60% possibility of rain on Friday, I’m leaning heavily to those picks with solid off-track experience.

In Race 1 ($30K maiden fillies, 6 furlongs), hot trainer Graham Motion enters first-time dirt runner Elizabeth Street, a previously European raced daughter of Street Cry out of an Affirmed mare. Mario Pino gets the ride aboard Tattletale Twist who should improve shortening up from her last race where she led before giving way to finish third at a mile. Inside Risk has the highest speed rating and worked well over this track, definitely a bonus.

In Race 2 (OC $25Kn2x, 1-1/16 mile), Sweetamygee is coasting in on an impressive four-race win streak and should go off as the favorite here (her fastest speed rating was on sloppy track). Westside Lady raced strongly last out here at Pimlico, but is stepping up in class. Honor Student closed quickly to win by a nose on sloppy Laurel track last time, and has solid record at Pimlico.

Race 3 is yet another maiden race, this time $30K for three-year-olds over 1-1/16 mile. Nick Zito-trained Helsinki is the morning line odds-on favorite, dropping in class, but also attempting distance for first time. Frankly, I’m more incline towards Love Tour who placed second last out to Pletcher’s Grand Causeway at this distance. Yankee Pride finished second at this distance vs. similar last time at Pimlico and should improve in second start since layoff. A longshot upset may occur either from Ticonderoga (who has been off since last October, but working out well at Bowie) or from lightly-raced Red Boomerang (who’s a half-brother to Maryland-PA multiple stakes winner Testafly, via the mare Far to Fly).

In Race 8 (Alw $32Kn1x fillies, 1-1/16 mile), the Holy Bull filly Divine Plan steps up from winning her maiden race at this distance (over an off track) to allowance company, and should do well. Love Scene (with Ramon Dominguez up) has improved in each of three races this year, breaking her maiden last time, but steps up to a route, behind a sharp 4 furlong work recently. Blondie’s Halos has been out of the money only once in 10 lifetime tries, and should be back in the groove in this, her second race after a layoff.

Race 9 is $95,000 The Very One Stakes (5 furlongs for fillies and mares on turf). Calvin Borel takes the reins on even money favorite Unbridled Sidney who failed in the G3 Turf Sprint at Churchill on May 4 (after two bullet workouts, but after a long layoff); she hasn’t worked since, but is the class of this field, and should improve in second start after that layoff. Her closest competitor could be Todd Pletcher’s South Necking who last finished third (but only 1-1/2 lengths behind) in the $100K Giants Causeway Stakes at Keeneland on April 21 (her jockey here, Garrett Gomez, was on the winning Forest Code then). She had a very sharp 4 furlong (:46.3) workout at Churchill since then, and looks good here. Smart and Fancy definitely has the speed and the record (including 5 wins in 8 tries in last two years, and never out of the money in that time). However, she has never tried turf. An upset winner could be Carryanun who has not raced since last October, but has worked extremely well and consistently since early March.

Race 11 is the $200,000 Grade 2 Allaire Dupont Breeders’ Cup Distaff Stakes (1-1/16 mile for fillies and mares), and Bobby Frankel’s Sugar Shake is the obvious favorite, coming off two graded stakes wins at Santa Anita where she nearly wired the field both times over this distance. She has not raced since February, but has recorded excellent weekly workouts, including a sharp 5-furlong work on May 14 (:59.3). However, by all accounts, she will scratch here and enter the G2 Shuvue Handicap at Belmont on Saturday. D. Wayne Lukas’ Fiery Pursuit upset Asi Siempre and favorite Indian Vale last time out in the G2 Louisville Breeders’ Cup Stakes over a sloppy Churchill Downs track. She is an early speedball and along with Rolling Sea) could set up a speed duel that allows a closer like Kettleoneup (with Calvin Borel up) to pass them for the win. That filly won last time out with Borel at Hawthorne in the G3 Sixty Sails Handicap, and it is interesting he sticks with her rather than Fiery Pursuit.


The Grade 2 $250,000 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes is Race 12, over 1-1/8 mile for three-year-old fillies. Baroness Thatcher skipped the G1 Kentucky Oaks to enter here, but does not appear to be a lock to win. She broke her maiden on Keeneland’s polytrack so her poor performance in the G2 Beaumont there on April 12 is not based on dislike of the surface. She was well beaten by Rags to Riches (and two others) in the G1 Santa Anita Oaks in March at 1-1/16 mile, so it’s hard to believe she could do better going farther. However, Garrett Gomez is back up, and he has been there for her only two wins in eight tries. Todd Pletcher’s Panty Raid is coming off an April 12 $54K allowance race for n1x on Keeneland’s polytrack, and has three solid (if not spectacular) workouts since then. Fee Fi Fo Fum finished third behind High Again and Christmas Kid in the G2 Bonnie Miss Stakes in March at this distance, but severely disappointed in the G2 Comely Stakes last time out. Her workouts since then haven’t exactly inspired further confidence. Winning Point overcame stumbling in the G2 Comely to finish second behind Boca Grande, and has two solid workouts over the Bowie course leading up to this race. She’s never gone beyond a mile, but definitely has the breeding for it. My favorite longshot here: Enchanting Star, who finished second to Sutra in the G1 Frizette last October. Her first race this year was an April 14 A32000n1x hand ride victory at Laurel over 7 furlongs; she has an extremely impressive 5 furlong workout from May 12 (:59.2) that bodes well for a strong performance here.

Owner Displeasure with Pletcher Beginning?

Interesting news out of Pimlico…apparently, Team Valor (owner of King of the Roxy) was none too happy about John Velazquez opting for Circular Quay, and nearly insisted on the stewards at Pimlico forcing the issue, only to think better of it and accept Garrett Gomez instead. Team Valor’s Barry Irwin said, "It was 2 to 1 to not ride Velazquez. Basically, people did not trust the situation and did not want to have a guy ride for us whose heart wasn't in it. And, they voted 100 percent to ride Gomez."

Hmmm...are owners tired of their horses being prioritized by a corporate trainer like Pletcher for jocks? I don’t understand the fascination with Velazquez, anyways. Gomez is currently the top rider in the country, winning 22% and finishing in the money nearly 54%. Velazquez, in nearly 100 less rides, wins at about the same rate, but is in the money nearly 51%. The only other top 10 rider with fewer rides than Velazquez is Fernando Jara. Ramon Dominguez, on the other hand, wins at a 27% clip, and is in the money an astounding 60%.

Preakness Stakes Post Positions and Morning Line Odds:

1. Mint Slewlep (Alan Garcia) Robbie Bailes (30-1)
2. Xchanger (Ramon Dominguez) Mark Shuman (15-1)
3. Circular Quay (John Velasquez) Todd Pletcher (8-1)
4. Curlin (Robby Albarado) Steve Asmussen (7-2)
5. King of the Roxy (Garrett Gomez) Todd Pletcher (12-1)
6. Flying First Class (Mark Guidry) D. Wayne Lukas (20-1)
7. Hard Spun (Mino Pino) Larry Jones (5-2)
8. Street Sense (Calvin Borel) Carl Nafzger (7-5)
9. C P West (Edgar Prado) Nick Zito (20-1)

Handicapping for Friday at Churchill Downs

Ok, not that much good racing at Churchill on Friday, but I handicapped some races in anticipation for visiting the OTW facilty then (and for the 10 cent superfecta!)

In race 4 (Alw 50Kn1x, 1-3/8 mile turf), Dress Uniform should be a real threat after closing extremely well to finish third (missing by less than a length) last time out at Keeneland. This three-year-old filly is a full sister to Casual Look, a Grade 1 filly on turf in Great Britain (including a win in the 2003 Epsom Oaks, and third place finishes in the Irish Oaks and Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup behind winner Film Maker), and Shabby Chic, a turf winner in France. Her chief rival here will be Aidan’s Bella, a surprising but well-closing second last time out to Christie’s Treasure at Keeneland. Beyond this pair, look to Ura Wild Won to step up in class successfully; last time out, she switched to turf and determinedly won at 1 mile. Her only question mark is if she can get the distance. Her dam Urca is out of 1989 Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Steinlen, and her sire Wild Wonder was a graded stakes winner/miler. I would be shocked to see her win, but with Julien Leparoux up, she should be in the money versus these. Filling out my 10-cent superfecta will be Ready to Goes who finished fifth versus similar last time out, but should improve with second race off layoff and returning to turf, with Bejarano up. (3-7-8-6)

Race 5 (MC 15K, 6f) features a five-year-old gelding, Play Maker Fever, who may finally break his maiden. He finished second vs. similar last time out at Charles Town, but worked a bullet 3 furlongs in :35.4 on May 13. In addition to adding blinkers, he also gets Bejarano up. Jamie Sanders has been on a bit of a losing streak of late, but Subtle Reaction takes a class drop and could come in here. He’s a half-brother of grade 2 winning filly Broad Dynamite; both are out of the Raise A Native mare Subtle Raise who has 6 winners out of 9 starters. He could improve in second start after layoff. An Heir of Magic did not impress in his first start on May 3, as he not only had to deal with a sloppy track, but also being bumped and squeezed. Since then, he had a very good 3 furlong workout at Churchill (:35.2), and may show up here. Cherokee Nation finished second in that same May 3 race at Churchill, and keeps Leparoux. (6-9-10-8)

Race 7 is a 6 furlong $48K maiden event for fillies. Unforgotten, with Robby Albarado up, looks prime here, as she finished strongly vs. similar last time out, gaining late to show, less than one length behind the winner Simply Divine (who next finished second behind Taletobetold on May 12 in the $100,000 Open Mind Stakes) and second place Im Classic Quality (who finished out of the money in the same stakes race). Their success lends even greater prominence to Unforgotten here, who is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning filly Hot Storm (both are out of the Secret Slew mare Forgotten Secret). Even Tempo finished fifth, just 1-1/2 lengths back, in that same Keeneland race, but she came up empty in that, her first start. She could improve here. Star of Luvina failed her last time out, tiring at 7 furlongs, but should like the shorter distance. Leparoux is up. First-time starter, four-year-old Pola’s Place, has several sharp workouts from the gate leading up to this start, and should impress. She is a half-sister of 2005 San Miguel and Sham stakes winner Going Wild. If any of these should scratch, another first-time starter Lily’s Place could come up, based on solid workouts recently. (4-5-9-6)

Race 10 is an allowance $50Kn1x going 1-1/16 mile on turf, and Patrick Biancone’s Niagara Causeway is the absolute class of this field, having run in six graded stakes races (including two grade 1). He is incredibly well bred (out of Giants Causeway and graded stakes winner Theoretically, out of Theatrical), but still qualifies here as an n1x. He failed as the favorite last time out at CD on May 2, but should improve in second start since layoff. Malameeze failed to fire in that same race in only his second try on turf, but had a sharp workout on May 13. Bill Mott-trained Lattice has finished in the money both times out on turf, and keeps Robby Albarado, but had a poor recent workout so may be a weak candidate. This Is That (a $1 million two-year-old purchase) closed gamely for second last time out at Keeneland vs. similar and could be in the money here. (1-9-3-4)

Finally, race 11 is $48K maiden race for fillies, over 6 furlongs. First-time starter Adorable Cat is a half-sister of graded-stakes placed Ramsgate (both are out of the Dehere mare Sha Hearah), and she’s worked out well for trainer Bobby Frankel. Another well-bred first-timer is the Dale Romans-trained Fast Included, half-sister to Lexington Stakes winner Sharp Impact out of the Carson City mare Fast and Early. Iowa-bred Pure Silk (half-sister to Birdbirdistheword, out of new sire Pure Prize) finished third last time out vs. similar at 7 furlongs for Steve Asmussen, and should step up again in third race. Brilliant Humor closed nicely to finish third first time out in March, and has worked well (and consistently) since then. (5-7-11-8)

Caviar vs. Sardines

We usually do not get to the OTW facility on Tuesdays, but since today was primary election day here in PA, and my friend could not work due to her office being a polling place, we spent a pathetically bad day there today. What tracks run on a Tuesday in May, you may ask? Philly Park, Delaware, River Downs, Finger Lakes, Prairie Meadows, Great Lakes, Fort Erie…get the picture? Nary a quality race to be had, as chalk ruled the day. The trifecta payouts at Philly paid between a low of $19.60 and the highest, $390.80. I did have Cabo Rojo in the 9th at Philly who paid $18.00 for trainer Jayne Vaders; he was the biggest payout of the day there—win, place, or show. It was that bad. It’s true: once you have had caviar, it’s hard to settle for sardines. So, I’ll be back at the OTW on Friday, with Pimlico, Belmont and Churchill topping my list of tracks to play.

Leading up to his stakes debut on Preakness Day in the $100,000 Hirsch Jacobs Stakes at Pimlico, Southwestern Heat (first offspring of multiple graded stakes winner Xtra Heat) blazed a bullet 3 furlongs today in 35:80 at Laurel. I hate to use the term “sure thing” but I have had my eye on this colt since he broke his maiden and, believe me, he will go off at a very short price and win impressively. Rely on it.

Things That Make Me Go “Hmmm”

After all the fuss of trainers and owners clamoring to get into what ended up being a very large Kentucky Derby field, why is it that so few trainers appear willing to take on a significantly smaller Preakness Stakes’ field? While not an excuse entirely, a number of talented horses were bumped, steadied, and/or carried wide in that traffic jam excuse for a race, so if your horse is sound, why not run again at Pimlico? Instead, it looks like we will be left with a three-horse match race, with third-rate pretenders running for leftovers. Excuse me if I can’t get excited about this race. However, if Circular Quay enters the fray, my attention has just been peaked.

Why is it that winning European racehorses have names like Astronomer Royal and Battle Paint while winning American racehorses have names like Slew’s Tizzy or Bustin Stones? Sorry, I know this is a generalization, but why do American horses have to have cutesy, gimmicky names rather than regal sounding ones? Obviously, this is not true of them all, but many. Just browse through your favorite track’s entries to judge for yourself. For example, today at Philly Park, you can place a bet on such pathetically named horses as: Shelly Has Money (if so, why did she waste her vanity on naming the horse after herself?), Smooth Colors (do colors have texture?), Itsawardthing (owned by Kathy Ward, get it?), Let’s Go Diesel (how about Let’s Go Electric, or Let’s Go Ethanol?), Zach at the Rack (huh?), Y Two J (ha ha), Must Win Soon (no pressure there for this six year old $12,500 claimer), and Seeyalatalitigata (gag!). Maybe there is a correlation between the quality and appropriateness of a name, and the level of racing at which a horse performs? In case you are wondering, I'm only half-assed serious :)

UPDATE: Maybe the real for naming horses with ridiculous names is for ridiculous betters (like myself, occasionally) to actually bet them and have them pay off. Of the aforementioned horses at Philly Park today, the following came in the money:
• Itsawardthing (win, $4.40)
• Shelly Has Money (place, $4.20)
• Zach at the Rack (win, $9.20)
• Must Win Soon (win, $8.00)
• Seeyalatalitigata (place, $4.00)

Go figure!

Horse Racing Postcard of the Week

In honor of Monmouth Park's opening this weekend...

I'll be out of town visiting Mom this weekend. To all mothers out there, "Happy Mother's Day!"

I *Heart* NY

The longshots were live at Belmont on Wednesday, and, boy, we enjoyed ourselves at the OTW facility today! My very cautious friend who nearly always places $2 show bets, and recently graduated to $2 place bets, branched out and hit an exacta. And my luck at $1 trifectas continues, hitting two of them, although not awesome ones ($39.50 on race 6, and $51.75 on race 9). As I mentioned before, I just finished reading Thornton’s Not By a Longshot, and the final chapter in his book deals with the MassCap won by Running Stag. Therefore, when I saw in the 7th race that his daughter Stag Dancer, a beautiful gray, was running, I took a leap of faith and placed a $2 bet on her to win. Imagine my happy surprise when she had a monstrous kick to the wire and won, paying a nice $25.60. I guess there is a lesson to be learned here. Sometimes all the analysis in the world is worthless and you just gotta play your gut.

Good news from Churchill Downs! Friday marks the debut of the 10 cent superfecta. Amen! I know serious horseplayers may turn up their noses at these, but there is nothing more encouraging for a new horseplayer like myself than picking the top four finishers (boxed, of course) for $2.40. Picking them in exact order for 10 cents…well…all I can say is, baby steps.

Delaware Park’s leading jockey Ramon Dominquez posted his 3,000 career victory today, which was a nice moment to see. And the horses he has rode over the years…Better Talk Now…Invasor (who posted his first timed workout since winning the Dubai World Cup)…and Derby runner-up Bluegrass Cat.

Random Musings, May 7

• The Preakness should have a much more manageable field, as only Street Sense, Hard Spun, Curlin, Teuflesberg, and Sedgefield will move on from the Derby. Doug O’Neill’s Great Hunter and Liquidity are heading back to California, and Todd Pletcher has taken his five-horse contingent back to New York, although he will apparently try anew with King of the Roxy. Slew’s Tizzy is opting for the Lone Star Derby, leaving Xchanger, Chelokee, C P West, Flying First Class and Starbase as possible Preakness starters. Nobiz Like Shobiz may run in the Peter Pan.

• Tiago, whose running style and staying power neatly fit a 1-1/2 mile race, may reappear in the Belmont Stakes on June 9, but trainer John Shirreffs says the Preakness Stakes is definitely out of the question. While his seventh place finish in the Derby was disappointing, he has impressed me as a horse that is still developing. With more seasoning, by fall he should be coming into his own as a dominant distance horse.

• About entering Rags to Riches in the Belmont Stakes, Pletcher said, "We'll see how she comes in here. We have plenty of time to make a decision. She's by a Belmont winner out of a mare who produced a Belmont winner, so her pedigree suggests she's bred to get a mile and a half. At the end of the day, she's not a stallion prospect, so there's not much to gain by running against colts other than for the sake of doing it and winning a race. We'll let the dust settle, get her in, and figure it out." Okay, this kind of attitude pisses me off. I may be taking this the wrong way, but it sounds as if the sole goal of entering and winning big horse races is to increase the potential value of them as sires, period. That somewhat overly cautious attitude is probably why you are 0 for 19 in the Derby, Todd. RUN THEM!

• Derby TV ratings were up 12% compared to last year, but all-sources wagering on the Derby dipped for the first time in 16 years. Did Magna’s refusal to permit Youbet and TVG customers access to wagering bite them in the pocketbook as well as the publicity ass?

• Finally, I finished reading T.D. Thornton’s Not By a Long Shot, and absolutely recommend it for anyone interested in learning more about life at a track like Suffolk Downs. Thornton did an amazing job bringing the place, people and horses to life. It left me wanting to read more similar accounts about other tracks. Interestingly, MassCap winner Running Stag (who plays a prominent role in the last part of Thornton’s book) had a daughter Candy Box who broke down and was euthanized at Belmont today.

To the Victor Goes the Glory...And the Perks!

Bloodhorse reports that Kentucky Derby-winning jockey Calvin Borel and his fiancé Lisa Funk have been invited to the white-tie state dinner tomorrow night (May 7) honoring Queen Elizabeth II. Nice to know there will be someone interesting for Her Majesty to converse with, even if he is a coon-ass.

In case you missed it, Marty McGee did a nice story about Borel in the Daily Racing Form (where his brother calls themselves coon-asses, so don't freakout about my using the term). Not exactly a model for others in terms of his abandonment of schooling (and his resulting illiteracy), but certainly something to learn about tenacity and love of life and horseracing.

Final Derby Comments

Man, that stretch seemed awful short when Hard Spun came off the final turn in the lead, and Street Sense caught and blew right by! Where the hell were the closers? I really thought there would be five or six horses coming off that final turn, battling it out with probably a photo finish. If the track had remained muddy, maybe that would have happened, but it dried to fast by post time.

The best horse definitely won, though. I could not have been more impressed with Street Sense, and good for Calvin Borel! You know, on Kentucky Oaks day, he was on a roll, and the number 7 came up again and again (3 wins, 3 places). I had a feeling, and had him in both $1 trifectas I played (but I didn’t bet him just to win)…unfortunately, neither Nobiz Like Shobiz or Any Given Saturday stepped up to complete the tri, so all I got for my $40 investment in tickets was $9.80 for a $2 place bet on the PA-bred Hard Spun.

Fortunately, I don’t feel so bad losing that much money, though, because yesterday, by adopting a tip by Michael over at Curb Your Enthusiasm, I put Don’t Fret in race 3 in a $1 tri box bet with True Competitor and Pennant Contender, and hit for $799.60! That’s the largest amount I’ve ever won. Even had to fill out the tax form thingie! Thank you again, Michael!

And talk about the 7 post being hot at Churchill…today, the $2 Pick Six (races 5-10) paid $231,225.40 on the numbers 7-7-3-7-7-7 (six winning tickets…how many people do you think played all 7s and just lost?)

Circular Quay, Tiago and Any Given Saturday finished 6th, 7th, and 8th respectively, and looked to be victims of the early pace set by Hard Spun, and the traffic jam of horses that Calvin “Railon” Borel slid right past on the inside in beautiful fashion. Garrett Gomez later said he got knocked around a bit aboard Any Given Saturday. "Then Street Sense came blowing through there and it was like a big old wave," Gomez said. "He knocked my horse out from under me and knocked him off his feet again. But that's the Kentucky Derby."

Associated Press racing writer Richard Rosenblatt is reporting that Todd Pletcher has said he doubted any of his five would move on to the Preakness Stakes in two weeks, but another of his 3-year-olds, King of the Roxy, could be headed to the second leg of the Triple Crown. If that's true, I'm really sorry to hear that, as Any Given Saturday has been one of my favorites.

My biggest Derby surprise was Imawildandcrazyguy closing from dead last to finish fourth. I’m still looking over his PP’s to figure that one out. His sire Wild Event sired Brazil champion (and now Godolphin runner) Eu Tambem…and that’s about it. But, good for Mark Guidry who was up his last Kentucky Derby runner, as he has announced his retirement following the Arlington Park spring season. He got his 5,000 (and 5,001) win on Friday at Churchill.

Sedgefield surprisingly held his own too in always being among the leaders before fading to finish fifth. Curlin’s third place finish bodes well for his future, now that he has experienced a “real” race.

Most disappointing? Nobiz Like Shobiz and Scat Daddy, who didn’t have to deal with the horrible posts Dominican and Great Hunter had, and still didn't fire. Scat Daddy…well, maybe it is his hooves, but Nobiz Like Shobiz in 10th place? That one hurt. I had him in both of my trifectas.

The big question now is how many horses did Street Sense and Hard Spun scare off the Preakness? How many new contenders will there be?

And, how much does this raise Street Cry’s stud fee? At Darley, his 2007 fee is $50,000, but he has not only produced in his first crop Street Sense, but also Whirlaway winner Summer Doldrums, Aventura Stakes winner Street Magician and G2 Stonerside Beaumont Stakes winner Street Sounds.

My Kentucky Derby Final Analysis

Time to commit to my Derby picks, and place my wagers. Our Penn National OTW facility here is insanely packed on Derby Day, as every idiot wanna-be horseplayer decides to go there that day and only that day (which is why it is closing on or before June 18—for lack of business on a day-to-day basis, so they say). In addition, Saturday is graduation day at school and since I won the President’s Award for Excellence in Teaching (aw shucks *blushing*) I have to be there to receive my gold medallion. Thankfully, the ceremony is at 1 p.m., plenty of time to rush home to watch the Derby. Therefore, I am off to the OTW tomorrow morning for Oaks Day. Please, somebody tell me why Churchill Downs does not have 10-cent superfectas? They could make a killing just on the Derby alone, with its 20-horse field.

I did make a few future wagers previously. In Pool 2, I lost $2 each on Ravel and Summer Doldrums, who fell by the wayside, but I do still have Great Hunter at 11-1 and Stormello at 22-1. I suspect that is about where both horses will be at post time, so I will not place any more single bets on them, and just be satisfied if they do well.

In my previous post, I eliminated six (Sedgefield, Bwana Bull, Imawildandcrazyguy, Storm in May, Liquidity, and Sam P). However, I often toss $2 on a horse for sentimental reasons and Storm in May is going to get that action from me (he is 2 for 2 in the money on off-tracks, and his Tomlinson number is a decent 371). I also have a soft-spot for grays (did I mention that like a million times before? Lol!). I suspect he will go off closer to 60-1—hey, a dear friend picked a 50-1 longshot two years ago to win…remember him? Giacomo?

What criteria do I use in deciding whom to back? Certainly the typical—breeding, record, previous competition, distance ran, stamina—but this year I am also looking for:

1. those who have been bumped and jostled around, and still won or performed well—those who can handle the traffic; and
2. those who have demonstrated improvement over the spring—not necessarily physical growth, but mental toughness through racing against the best and training well and regularly

Frankly, I still have not decided on a winner, as so much depends on track conditions and how the race unfolds, so I will be boxing some exactas and trifectas (again, if only they had the 10 cent super!).

Who do I like to be in the mix at the end?

• Street Sense (7) and Any Given Saturday (18). The one thing that really stands out for me about these two is the Tampa Bay Derby duel. Watch it again. Street Sense (with the quintessential rail ride by Calvin Borel) may have won the bob in that 1-1/16 mile race, but it was Any Given Saturday who had the wide trip and when passed by Street Sense came back again—had the race been the Derby’s 1-1/4 mile, he would have won, I bet. I like Garrett Gomez up, even though he has not rode AGS before—I think John Velazquez will come to regret giving up this mount. Both have been training perfectly, and each had a strong last race—Street Sense lost by a nose to Dominican in that strange Blue Grass, while AGS bounced a bit, wide in both turns and finished within four lengths of Nobiz Like Shobiz in the Wood Memorial, running back a full week earlier than Street Sense. If he had gotten that extra week’s rest, maybe he would have done better in his last race. Regardless, Pletcher gave him 2 weeks off after that before he worked a beautiful 5f in :58.4. Both SS and AGS have run at Churchill before (last November), as SS won the Breeders Cup Juvenile here and AGS finished just ½ length behind Tiz Wonderful in the Kentucky Juvenile Cup. I definitely see these two up there at the wire.

• Tiago (15). I freaking love Tiago! Watch his Santa Anita Derby win. He lopes along last or next to last, at least 15 lengths back from the leaders nearly the entire race, until Mike Smith starts moving him up as they make the final turn. He goes to the rail, then weaves through traffic passing them all last and continues running well beyond them as he crosses the wire. With Churchill’s long stretch, if he gets a good clean ride (and Smith does not flay him until he bleeds), Tiago should be able to close like that again. Unfortunately, because of the Giacomo connection, his odds will probably be shorter than I would like, but still at least 10-1. In an exacta or tri, that pays well enough. However, my only concern are comments such as those by DRF’s Mike Welsch that Tiago does not appear to be working well on the Churchill track since shipping in from Hollywood.

• Nobiz Like Shobiz (12). This is a beautiful animal—what a chest! Between him and Curlin (2), I am not sure which is the more physically impressive creature. However, while I am lukewarm on Curlin (mostly because he has never had anyone put forth a challenge to him…how will he handle one or more horses running with him rather than letting him pass?), I like Nobiz Like Shobiz. Head case that he may be, he has never finished out of the money in six races; in fact, he has never lost by more than ¾ length. All but one of his Bris speed numbers are 100+ (and the low is 97). He broke his maiden first time out, and then finished ¾ length behind Scat Daddy (14) in the G1 Champagne next out. He is the only Derby horse who went from a maiden race to nearly winning a grade 1 stakes! Scat Daddy broke his maiden, and then won the G2 Sanford, then placed in the G1 Hopeful before the Champagne, which makes Nobiz Like Shobiz’s achievement even more notable. Cornelio Velasquez has rode him in every race, and Barclay Tagg is a classy trainer. Actually, I am not crazy about his name, but I do like his Bris comments: “as rider pleased” “when asked” “all out” and “resolutely on rail.” A proven contender whose last two workouts at Belmont (5f :59.4 and :59.3) are impressive. He is flying under the radar of Pletcher’s brood, Street Sense and Curlin, so maybe he’ll stay up around his morning line 8-1.

• Zanjero (3). I am not sure I can articulate a compelling reason why I like this animal, just call it a hunch, a gut reaction. I am not a big Steve Asmussen fan, although I can admire his accomplishments with young horses, and this horse is getting better, in his workouts and performances, including finishing third by a head in the free-for-all that was the Blue Grass. Shaun Bridgmohan is back on him, and together they won two races last year, including a 1-1/16 mile race over this track.

• Scat Daddy (14). Damn, another Pletcher horse! However, you can’t argue with 5 wins in 8 tries, including 4 graded stakes (G2 Sanford, G1 Champagne, G2 Fountain of Youth, and G1 Florida Derby). The Kentucky-bred son of Johannesburg, out of the Mr. Prospector mare Love Style, has been training wonderfully, consistently, and has Edgar Prado up (one of my favorite jocks).

Just for kicks and giggles, I will put $2 on Teuflesberg (10) to show—just because.

I am leaving out some as a calculated risk. As PA bred, I should root for Hard Spun (8), and I will, but...that last workout revealed much (fast early, but slow late), he has not run in six weeks, and he has not run in a grade 1 stakes. Geez, he lost to Teuflesberg (10), and beaten only the likes of non-Derby entrants Joe Got Even, Forty Grams, and Officer Rocket. Pass. Cowtown Cat (6) ran a nice G2 Illinois Derby, but also who has he beaten? Reporting for Duty, Wafi City, Summer Doldrums…all non-Derby horses. However, he has been training significantly better at Keeneland, but I am still not a believer. Pass. The next one may raise some eyebrows, but I am leaving Circular Quay (16) out of my exotics. Eight weeks since his last race (Louisiana Derby) is too much and I don’t care if he is working out with Rags to Riches (and she is a hand-full). Pass. I’m also going to pass on Stormello (17) and Great Hunter (20), although I love them both. Stormello’s early speed won’t help him here, and Great Hunter is frankly screwed starting from post 20. Moreover, I already have those future wagers if they do happen to surprise.

After all that (sorry, but typing it out helps me think better), it looks like I am going with some combination of: 3-7-12-14-15-18.

Derby Contenders: Information Overload

As if you need even more information to digest about this year's Kentucky Derby, check out the Louisville Courier-Journal's Data Track. Crunching their numbers (and if you are anal retentive about numbers, you will love this), the top 10 Derby finishers (from best to least) should be:

1. Street Sense (323)
2. Nobiz Like Shobiz (285)
3. Scat Daddy (283)
4. Cowtown Cat (273)
5. Hard Spun (257)
6. Dominican (256)
7. Any Given Saturday (254)
8. Great Hunter (247)
9. Teuflesberg (233)
10. Sam P (221)

I also stumbled across this site months ago, by Dr. Steven A. Roman (Columbia University), which is heavily mathematical in its pedigree and pace-based methodology. In summation (for those of you—like me—whose brains freeze up when you look at too many numbers), there are four logical choices (based on history and recent trends) for the final Derby contenders:

1. Circular Quay
2. Street Sense
3. Any Given Saturday
4. Nobiz Like Shobiz

They meet his pace parameter and performance figure criteria. Also up near the top of the list: Tiago, Zanjero, Liquidity, Cowtown Cat and Scat Daddy.

The Daily Racing Form's past performances for the Derby are found here; for the Bris report (my favorite) look here.

My selections to follow shortly...

Update for Friday's Kentucky Oaks

The Churchill track was sloppy today, and with light showers plus 60% probability of thunderstorms, it now looks to be a pretty sure bet that the Kentucky Oaks will be run on an off-track. Looking more carefully at the past performance charts, I may have to place more favor on Rags to Riches than I once thought. Even though she has not yet run on an off track, her Tomlinson number (for off-track success based on statistical success of sire and dam's progeny) is 434, the highest of any filly in the field (followed by Autobahn Girl at 421). However, I also ran across this on Tough Tiz’s Sis, in a Thursday blog entry by Claire Novak (“Morning Line…Goes to the Kentucky Derby”) on Bloodhorse.com:

See the guy with the white hair who is climbing the stairs to the clockers’ stand. Could that be Bob Baffert? Bob Who? According to Baffert, that’s been the general reaction he’s getting this weekend, with no Derby contender and 10-1 shot Tough Tiz’s Sis in the Oaks…“Let me tell you about this filly,” he says. “She loves the mud. She loves the mud, you can put that down, and she handles it like a monster. Now if she runs up the track tomorrow, it’ll be ‘she hates the mud, she hates the mud, the jock had her too far back and when she got to the top of the lane the track was all chewed up and she couldn’t handle it.’ But right now, she’s a big filly who can run all day…with the right kind of horses.” Tough Tiz’s Sis gallops by. To use the racetrack cliché, she works “perfect.”

Apparently, Dreaming of Anna’s trainer Wayne Catalano is not so pleased:

"I really don't like the track right now," he says. "It's too muddy, it's horrible. I thought it would be muddy, but I didn't think it would be that bad." Catalano saddles Dreaming of Anna in the Oaks tomorrow. The filly is good. He hopes the track is better. "Everything's good with the filly, fine, couldn't be better," he says. "But the track? Now that's a different story."

Definitely some food for (betting) thought...

The Process of Elimination

Left: The Blind Side of Storm in May



I am still working on my Derby picks, but have purged several from contention. Unless someone can provide a convincing argument in their favor, I am eliminating:

• Sedgefield—every single race he has run was on turf or polytrack, no good old-fashioned (hard) dirt. I like jockey Julien Leparoux who is a magician on Kentucky tracks, and certainly, he is bred for distance. He is out of Smart Strike, and a full-brother to English Channel…both of those connections scream “turf.” I suspect that, breaking from the rail, he will be on the early lead. Will Darrin Miller use him to set the pace for his other trainee Dominican who breaks from post 19?

• Bwana Bull—in addition to his rather silly-sounding name, who has he raced against this year? Talk about weak competition. No wonder he got his butt kicked in the Santa Anita Derby. His workouts since then are weaker than earlier in the year. He’s definitely not improving. 50-1? Should be 100-1, at least.

• Imawildandcrazyguy—I admit, I have a soft spot for gray horses, and he has some interesting dappling. It has been five weeks since his last race (Florida Derby) where he finished sixth. He’s only had two workouts since then, and one was 5f in 1:05?! No, no, no!

• Storm in May—now this one pains me, because I love this one-eyed gray. He’s a worker. Out of the money only once in 13 starts, he has run on turf and dirt, from 6 furlongs to 1-1/8 mile. However, this will be only his second race outside of Florida, and he has never won on dirt over seven furlongs. I would love this gutsy horse to pull a huge upset, breaking from the four hole, but with all the talent here, I just don’t see it happening.

• Liquidity—yes, he does have two nice recent workouts. However, he is early speed, and breaking from post 9 puts him between early speed balls Hard Spun and Teuflesberg. I don’t see him lasting 1-1/4 mile.

• Sam P—the weakest of Pletcher’s entries, in my opinion. He starts from post 13, which actually is my lucky number, so it is not that. He just hasn’t beaten any of the other Derby contenders—ever—and he’s been beaten by Any Given Saturday, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Scat Daddy, Great Hunter, and Tiago. Look at his race comments from this year: “couldn’t keep pace”, “2nd best”, “best rest.”

Well, there’s six gone out of 20…

Kentucky Oaks

Dreaming of Anna

The post position draw occurred today for Friday’s Kentucky Oaks, and I must say, what a talented group of fillies! By all accounts, Dreaming of Anna may have gotten the best draw (7), and she certainly appears to be training well, putting up a bullet :58.3 on Monday. Interestingly, she bulleted :47 (best of 71) six days before winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies at Churchill last November when she rode that “golden rail” from post position one the entire 1-1/16 mile for the win. She may be peaking again after two months off—looking back over her short career, she does well coming off long breaks. By race time, I figure her odds will be down to 3-1, and certainly, she should be in the money at the end, so what a bargain!


Rags to Riches appeared to be a physical monster in her works this past week with diminutive Circular Quay, refusing him the lead. Yea, I think she could probably kick the ass of many boys in the Derby, but I am guessing she will be over bet on Friday, possibly going off at 2-5, leaving ample opportunity to make some good money when she does not win. Breaking from post 11 will be tough, with early speed Mistical Plan outside her in post 13, and the talented High Again way out in post 14. I don’t expect either of those two to be in the money at the end, though—both look like milers to me.



Who will be in there at the end? I would not be surprised if Rags to Riches or Cotton Blossom finished in the top four, the latter mostly due to Edgar Prado, and certainly Dreaming of Anna. While High Heels is a nice filly who ran a monster race in the G2 Fantasy on April 6, beating Cotton Blossom by nearly seven lengths, my money is on the gray beauty Octave. She was rolling at the end of the G1 Ashland on April 7, losing only by a head to Christmas Kid who passed on the Oaks to enter the Acorn (much to my chagrin, as I had an early wager on her at 50-1). She has been working beautifully, with two impressive 5-furlong works working with Cotton Blossom(:59.1 on April 28, and :58 on April 21). Frankly, the only draw back is she loses Garrett Gomez in favor of John Velazquez—yea, I know he is Pletcher’s number one jock, but I personally don’t care for his riding style. He jumps off Cotton Blossom to ride Octave so maybe there's something to be read into that fact.

My “longshot” pick to finish in the money and—dare I say it?—place: the West Coast invader Tough Tiz’s Sis, despite no graded stakes experience. She hasn’t raced since her nearly four length victory in the WinStar Oaks at Sunland on March 18, but since then she has been burning up the track at Santa Anita with consistently strong workouts (4f :46.2 on March 31, 5f 1:00.3 on April 9, 6f 1:10.3 on April 17, 6f 1:12.3 on April 23, and 6f 1:11.2 on April 29). The Bob Baffet-trained Tiznow filly is 10-1 morning line, and may drift up even more by race time.

The weather is looking good for both the Oaks and Derby, with only 30% chance of thunderstorms on Friday, and 20% on Saturday.

UPDATE: Looks like the chance of thunderstorms is now 70%...hummm. No, don't think I'll change a thing, except consider a late bet on Autobahn Girl who has run 3 times on off-tracks, winning one and placing in the two others. Not bad.

So, that’s 4-7-9-11 (boxed) for the superfecta—good luck!